ReimTime said:
KazumaKiryu said:
I think Microsoft is no longer interested so for consoles. They said that that want to focus more on PC and other windows stuff in the next few years.Many players know this.
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To be fair they have been saying this for over 10 years, and a lot of their Windows gaming stuff on PC was absolute shite.
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I think there may be a mindshare shift at Microsoft.
Think about what they saw in the 90s, they saw Sony getting into console gaming, and feared that that would eventually challenge the PC/Windows supremacy from the living room outward I guess. At the time Microsoft didn't have a major stake in PC gaming anyway, other than a few minor studios. They saw little chance for growth in PC gaming for whatever reason, and put all their chips on stopping Sony from challenging them from the living room scenario.
Now what has happened since then? Microsoft has been a day late and a dollar short to all of the other challenges to their empire in terms of new tech, such as smartphones, tablets, mobile apps, streaming boxes, and so on. Huge new walled garden environments rose up showering billions into Apple's coffers with the iDevice crazes. Android is growing by literally tens of thousands of new users HOURLY.
All the while PC gaming, under the strong leadership under Steam's interface domination, and the wide availability of decent broadband in the large metro areas, has seen dramatic rises in popularity, reach, and profitability. The global PC numbers for gaming revenue are now simply staggering.
Microsoft sees their error, now an obvious one. Console competition requires truly massive investments for very questionable profits, and is prone to tailspins inevitably at some point in a generation which can only be corrected by spending billions more rolling the dice on a successive generation. It's Russian Roulette for anyone working the console space, even Sony only narrowly avoided suicide by PS3 with the horrendous late launch, high price, availablility issues, low attach rate (few titles + high % of people buying them exclusively to serve as Bluray HT pieces), etc. Now it's Microsoft's turn to feel the pain with XB1.
Let's look at the XB1. Every fan and proponent likes to point at "WOW it's sold more than 360 at this point". This is a deceiving point underneath, because :
1- 360 had massive supply shortages
2- 360 had to build a wider audience from a mostly niche preceding console, the Halo fans were waiting on Halo 3, and Gears didn't exist for a while yet
3- 360 didn't truly take off for a fairly considerable amount of time after launch, it was a slow burn
X1 will inevitably track LTD lower than 360 even in the US, the writing is on the wall. But more crucially :
What do you think the X1 sales would be if they had stuck with $499, no game, mandatory Kinect? They would be totally buried right now. They've thrown everything AND the kitchen sink at X1 to get the sales up. Sales were spectacularly front-loaded on launch, then poor throughout 2014 until the holidays, then considerably buffed by stunning sales. I remember posting a thread positing that we could see a $349 X1 with bundled game(s) in mid-2014, and people thought I was crazy, Microsoft would never do ANOTHER price cut in one year. Well, we all know what happened, multiple game giveaways, $329, retailer gift-cards, trade-up programs, yadda/infinity. So a lot of the numbers we see from X1 so far are due to the pent-up launch demand (which dissipated quickly of course, even with absolutely staggering launch availability), and the 2nd holiday fire sales (against a full-launch-price opponent for all practical purposes).
X1 can compete again holiday 2015 if they have another price advantage. But that's a pretty big question. It would be basically unprecedented for Sony not to drop the price to $349 or less by no later than fall of this year. And more typically we've seen more like a move to $299. At $299, of course Microsoft would have to attack via $249 (in my mind, would result in basically a draw during Nov/Dec), or $199-$229 with big bundles (extra controller, year of live, multiple new games), which would in my estimation result in a similar margin of victory we saw for holiday 2014 favoring MS. But is that worth the cost? Either way is a nightmare scenario for the fundamental function of having a product line to begin with : to make money.
So taking all of that into account, Microsoft can't be run by people stupid enough to not realize where the threats and opportunities lie, and where the failures stand.
Cliffs for MS :
HUGE money is possible with PC gaming if they can self-check their ego and cooperate with Steam. Simply bringing AAA titles to PC gives enormous sales potential without the ludicrous hardware R&D necessary. They could even offer a W10 'console'-style OS variant that is low overhead that could be packed into to prequalified SteamBoxes from various vendors. All of the rewards, basically none of the risks for MS.
Console hardware is just a low margin nightmare unless you play your cards very tight and make few errors.
As the future comes on, they could go to a Netflix-style high-speed game streaming service for the Xbox brand, play on all of your Windows devices the latest MS games and partner games for a monthly fee. Buy full-fledged games and DLC or MP passes on the side.
And that is my epic rant.
Can the X1 take back the US crown? Not unless they're willing to hemmorhage absolutely stupendous amounts of money for no reason at all. Even 'winning' would amount to a huge loss worldwide. They'd be far better off selling 40M total LTD this gen but turning a profit vs. selling 60M total LTD but losing 4B+ to do so (trying to hit $249 or less only 2 years in with bundled extras).
