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Forums - Nintendo - Prediction: The Nintendo Fusion will sell 80m+

 

Do you agree?

Yes, it will sell 80m+ 112 40.58%
 
No, it will sell less than 80m 164 59.42%
 
Total:276
Nuvendil said:

Until the Fusion exists, I predict it will sell 0 units because I don't think it will exist.

Iwata said the platforms would be "like brothers" as in similar development pipelines allowing for fluidity within teams and select cross platform titles. Not that the two will share one identity and one library and essentially one set of specs. Mark my words, the handheld and console will still have their own identities and their own libraries with some overlap where it makes sense (Kirby games, NSMB games, etc). The console will be the more powerful by a country mile, just as always. 

What they are doing is making the development similar between them so that they can maximize their company's efficiency in terms of development. They are also probably working to make as many of their engines as scalable as possible so that they can limit the number of tool sets that they need to learn.   That's the end game here.  Not what is essentially one device for handheld and console (or two essentially identical devices with the exact same library)

Actually Iwata said in the same quote that they must adopt the same ecosystem that Apple has for the iPhone and iPad (which you can also say are "brother" devices). 

Also how sure are you that Nintendo even wants a "massively" more powerful console? Look at this gen, most companies are struggling to get anything released on time, and these are companies with years of HD experience. These PS4/XB1 games are likely even higher budget than anything before to boot. 

I think it's very likely Nintendo says "thanks, but no thanks" to that proposition, I don't think anyone at Nintendo is licking their chops to work with even more powerful hardware that will lead to longer and more expensive development times. 

There's no reason the home variant can't be more powerful though ... it could be the same games, but the home version runs them at a nice, clean 1080P resolution, whereas the handheld can run the same game just at 720p or maybe 960x540 resolution. Maybe the console version has a few extra effects, but nothing major. 

That sorta thing. 



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Nuvendil said:

Until the Fusion exists, I predict it will sell 0 units because I don't think it will exist.

Iwata said the platforms would be "like brothers" as in similar development pipelines allowing for fluidity within teams and select cross platform titles. Not that the two will share one identity and one library and essentially one set of specs. Mark my words, the handheld and console will still have their own identities and their own libraries with some overlap where it makes sense (Kirby games, NSMB games, etc). The console will be the more powerful by a country mile, just as always. 

What they are doing is making the development similar between them so that they can maximize their company's efficiency in terms of development. They are also probably working to make as many of their engines as scalable as possible so that they can limit the number of tool sets that they need to learn.   That's the end game here.  Not what is essentially one device for handheld and console (or two essentially identical devices with the exact same library)

Actually Iwata said in the same quote that they must adopt the same ecosystem that Apple has for the iPhone and iPad (which you can also say are "brother" devices). 

Also how sure are you that Nintendo even wants a "massively" more powerful console? Look at this gen, most companies are struggling to get anything released on time, and these are companies with years of HD experience. These PS4/XB1 games are likely even higher budget than anything before to boot. 

I think it's very likely Nintendo says "thanks, but no thanks" to that proposition, I don't think anyone at Nintendo is licking their chops to work with even more powerful hardware that will lead to longer and more expensive development times. 

There's no reason the home variant can't be more powerful though ... it could be the same games, but the home version runs them at a nice, clean 1080P resolution, whereas the handheld can run the same game just at 720p or maybe 960x540 resolution. Maybe the console version has a few extra effects, but nothing major. 

That sorta thing. There's also strong incenctive for Nintendo to WANT to share their library. What good is having Mario Kart 8 have such great reviews and all that, if only about 10 million of the 65 million or so Nintendo hardware owners so far this gen can even play the game? Of course it would be hugely beneficial to Nintendo if both hardware devices could run Mario Kart 8 rather than it having to rot on the smaller userbase. 

Take a game like Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze too for example, IMO if that was available to all Nintendo users instead of just a fraction of the userbase, I think it would've sold more like 3-4 million copies, instead of the barely 1 million it got on the Wii U. It's in Nintendo's benefit really to end this type of software segregation. It's costing them money, not the other way around. 



They would have to have another big gimmick like the Wii had to sell that much.



Heck, with Nintendo, we don't even know if they're doing a traditional game console next gen. Let's hold our horses. I know we want to see Nintendo make a comeback but this isn't really the time to speculate that.



Soundwave said:
Nuvendil said:

Until the Fusion exists, I predict it will sell 0 units because I don't think it will exist.

Iwata said the platforms would be "like brothers" as in similar development pipelines allowing for fluidity within teams and select cross platform titles. Not that the two will share one identity and one library and essentially one set of specs. Mark my words, the handheld and console will still have their own identities and their own libraries with some overlap where it makes sense (Kirby games, NSMB games, etc). The console will be the more powerful by a country mile, just as always. 

What they are doing is making the development similar between them so that they can maximize their company's efficiency in terms of development. They are also probably working to make as many of their engines as scalable as possible so that they can limit the number of tool sets that they need to learn.   That's the end game here.  Not what is essentially one device for handheld and console (or two essentially identical devices with the exact same library)

Actually Iwata said in the same quote that they must adopt the same ecosystem that Apple has for the iPhone and iPad (which you can also say are "brother" devices). 

Also how sure are you that Nintendo even wants a "massively" more powerful console? Look at this gen, most companies are struggling to get anything released on time, and these are companies with years of HD experience. These PS4/XB1 games are likely even higher budget than anything before to boot. 

I think it's very likely Nintendo says "thanks, but no thanks" to that proposition, I don't think anyone at Nintendo is licking their chops to work with even more powerful hardware that will lead to longer and more expensive development times. 

There's no reason the home variant can't be more powerful though ... it could be the same games, but the home version runs them at a nice, clean 1080P resolution, whereas the handheld can run the same game just at 720p or maybe 960x540 resolution. Maybe the console version has a few extra effects, but nothing major. 

That sorta thing. There's also strong incenctive for Nintendo to WANT to share their library. What good is having Mario Kart 8 have such great reviews and all that, if only about 10 million of the 65 million or so Nintendo hardware owners so far this gen can even play the game? Of course it would be hugely beneficial to Nintendo if both hardware devices could run Mario Kart 8 rather than it having to rot on the smaller userbase. 

First, Nintendo can't say "no thanks."  Even if the numbers make sense, consumer mentality and expectations and the media will not accept it.  It is the mindset of the consumer that any hardware upgrade must be a legitimate upgrade in real world performance.  Anything less than that will be absolutely curcified, I 100% promise you. 

Second, I can name a number of people at Nintendo who clearly have interest in pushing hardware, Aonuma and Takahashi being standouts as major figures within the company. 

Third, you assume the sluggishness and development issues at many companies is due to HD development.  I say, and I have evidence, that it is due to corporate atmospheres within these companies.  Ex-developers at companies from around the world describe overly-controlling CEOs and marketing teams, an atmosphere of shaming for those who don't put in overtime, excessive pressure to elevate the company's importance to unhealthy levels, good ideas that the people who know games at the publishers loved being rejected because it isn't "mainstream enough" even when the idea is clearly marketable (see Kingdom Come: Deliverance), the list goes on.  These are textbook examples of how NOT to run efficient teams.  These kinds of issues make these companies breeding grounds for inefficiency, which these idiotic companies compensate for by hiring on massive teams, not taking into account the fact that once you hit a certain level (not too far over 100 honestly), the blows to efficiency brought on by the complexities of coordination outweigh the benefits of bringing those people on in the first place.  Nintendo's output for their size is quite impressive specifically because they *don't* have this issue, at least from what we know.

And finally, there is the issue of risk vs reward.  And what I just stated comes out as the correct choice in that regard.  If they do what I said and you are right that it wasn't the wiser move, then they still have the security of their handheld and the home console devision will still probably be profitible.  However, if they do what you say and I am right then the whole of the 9th gen is over for them before it starts with the Fusion platform doomed to seel less than the 3DS much less come close to the 3DS and Wii U combined. 

I could also talk about the difference between handheld and console games and how they aren't the same 99% of the time, even across franchises.  I could talk about the difference between demographics between handhelds and consoles.  I could talk about the different expectations consumers have for handhelds and consoles.  But since every single time I do that it seems to just be completely ignored, forgotten, or whatever, I'm not even going to bother. 

And lastly, Apple's absurd sales come from the business model that the cell phone business runs on.  That business model is not Nintendo's.  Stop comparing these two companies.  Their market isn't the same, their audience isn't the same, their products aren't the same, their business models aren't the same, they are not comparable in this discussion.



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Keep believing about this Nintendo Fusion thing all you want. It´s not gonna happen.



Soundwave said:
teigaga said:
Soundwave said:

I doubt it will be that exactly.

It will be the handheld chip on both devices, but you'll have to buy seperate devices to play on your TV. 

Same deal as Vita + Vita TV ... you can't just hook up your Vita to your TV, you have to buy a Vita TV for that. 

Except I think in Nintendo's case, the console version will be more powerful, they could just literally even just use 2x-3x the CPU/GPU cores. Mobile parts are small, power efficient, and usually scale in cost very nicely, making a "stackable" console variant very easy to do. 

The home console variant of this would sell worse then the Vita. Why would they do this?? :(


Because lets take a game like Zelda U or Splatoon for example. 

Right now Nintendo can only sell that game to about 10-15 million users (so it's not like Wii U is outselling the Vita anyway by any big measure). And those games probably cost a pretty penny to make too, HD development ain't cheap on games of this scale. 

Under a Fusion set up these games would be looking at 60+ million users to sell too. Likely meaning most of their big game IP would at least double in sales. 

The seperate console/portable lines doesn't make sense for Nintendo anymore, they likely can make (a lot) more money with a Fusion setup because of higher software sales. 

It's also an idea that wasn't possible in the past, in the past you couldn't use mobile chips to reasonably build a decent home console, but today you can, if you put two or three Apple A8 processors (the iPhone 6 chip) for example into a small box, that arguably would be more powerful than the Wii U in most ways.

Today you can make an HD platform with reasonably nice looking graphics using the same mobile components that are in portable devices like smartphones. That wasn't an option for Nintendo in the past, otherwise who knows, they may have gone Fusion a while ago if they could have. 

OK, I get its a safe option. Its essentially them handing in the card on console market but expanding their own software revenue....

God forbid this ever happens.



I hope we get no fusion as it will be well under powered to run better than PS4 gfx on a home console that Nintendo's next system will need to beat in order to be relevant.

Unless they planning to create some engine that downscales and turns off gfx settings kind of like PC gamers can do but do this automatically.



 

 

Cobretti2 said:
I hope we get no fusion as it will be well under powered to run better than PS4 gfx on a home console that Nintendo's next system will need to beat in order to be relevant.

Unless they planning to create some engine that downscales and turns off gfx settings kind of like PC gamers can do but do this automatically.

I suspect that is exactly what they are doing.  I think, but can't be sure, that Super Mario 3D World and Super Mario 3D Land, for example, run on essentially the same, highly scalable engines.  <-Scratch that, It's not the same engine : P .

If they make development environments similar and their engines scalable, it will make transitioning back and forth from handheld to console development much easier, which will allow for maximum efficiency as well as crossplatform games where it makes actual sense. 



let me check my balls... Hmmm I get nothing



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(