Yes and yes it will. price is why. PS2 success was very much to do with its price and world wide markets, PS4 is following its path. Growing markets, and new ones (china) will play a major role.

VR in the 8th gen will be what 4K TV is right now; on the way but still too costly and too much bother to implement.

If it breaks 100 million I will be surprised...

Why is this a question? There is no "If" because clearly it can and is. However the question is do you think it WILL? I don't, because I am 90% sure this will be a standard 5 year generation with less total market share than the previous one.

The charts show that the momentum of the first 12 months has started to slow down.  Even if it maintains the sales pace for another 2 years (somewhat likely), it will start to slow down rapidly at that point.  There are and will be just too many choices for the casual crowd to support the sales rate long term.  I would guess 90 million...

I don't think so. One reason PS2 carried on selling (was it 30 million AFTER PS3 launched?) is because PS3 had a bad rep in its early years. So PS2 kept on selling. If PS3 had actually capitalised on the success of the PS2 and sold like PS2 right from the start, then PS2 would not have gone much beyond 120 million.

Hopefully Sony has learned a lesson about not taking the market for granted and that the core of their fanbase is much smaller than what they thought it was back in 2006/7. If they have learned that lesson, then PS5 (if there is one) will come out of the gate very strongly, and this will have the effect of causing PS4 sales to drop away quickly and PS4 to exit the market at the sort of rate we are seeing for PS3. I don't recall Sony talking about a 10 year plan for PS4, so I think Sony are looking at PS4 being on the market for 7-8 years at most. It will not reach 150 million in that sort of timeframe. it may not even reach 100 million in that timeframe, though it should if PS4 can manage a few years up near 20 million.

As to VR. I don't see it having much of an effect in terms of console sales. If they are lucky it will sell to a reasonable core of PS4 owners, but it won't be picked up by the masses, not this generation anyway. Although, if someone comes up with a killer app that isn't porn it might take off very quickly.

I personally would love to take virtual tours of all the greatest places to visit in the world. Go virtual sky-diving, virtual deep sea diving. Take a virtual tour of the international space station.

Two scenarios.

SCENARIO 1
- PS4 gets to $200 price point in 2017 and is not replaced by PS5 till 2019.
- Morpheus and the whole VR thing turns out to be a Fad with no mainstream legs.
- max 120M sold and will not outsell the PS2.

SCENARIO 2
- In 2016 you can buy a full Morpheus kit for $199, standalone PS4 with a few free games for $299, PS4+free games + Morpheus for $499.
- VR is a major heavy success and Sony somehow supports VR video which in turn breeds VR porn and every one wants one.
- PS4 will sell 200M+ consoles just for VR porn alone.

In conclusion, the fate of the PS4 outselling the PS2 is VR. The fate of the PS4 selling over 200M consoles is the success of VR. The fate of VR being successful is porn. And I'm not kidding.

It depends on how long it'll last. PS2 lasted for over 10 years.

Not even the Wii sold more than the PS2, so no.

Are you sure ?  Since the 1st January Sony has sold 1,7 million of Ps4.