Can the PS4 really outsell the PS2?

[binary solo]

I don't think so. One reason PS2 carried on selling (was it 30 million AFTER PS3 launched?) is because PS3 had a bad rep in its early years. So PS2 kept on selling. If PS3 had actually capitalised on the success of the PS2 and sold like PS2 right from the start, then PS2 would not have gone much beyond 120 million.

Hopefully Sony has learned a lesson about not taking the market for granted and that the core of their fanbase is much smaller than what they thought it was back in 2006/7. If they have learned that lesson, then PS5 (if there is one) will come out of the gate very strongly, and this will have the effect of causing PS4 sales to drop away quickly and PS4 to exit the market at the sort of rate we are seeing for PS3. I don't recall Sony talking about a 10 year plan for PS4, so I think Sony are looking at PS4 being on the market for 7-8 years at most. It will not reach 150 million in that sort of timeframe. it may not even reach 100 million in that timeframe, though it should if PS4 can manage a few years up near 20 million.

As to VR. I don't see it having much of an effect in terms of console sales. If they are lucky it will sell to a reasonable core of PS4 owners, but it won't be picked up by the masses, not this generation anyway. Although, if someone comes up with a killer app that isn't porn it might take off very quickly.

I personally would love to take virtual tours of all the greatest places to visit in the world. Go virtual sky-diving, virtual deep sea diving. Take a virtual tour of the international space station.