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Two scenarios.

SCENARIO 1
- PS4 gets to $200 price point in 2017 and is not replaced by PS5 till 2019.
- Morpheus and the whole VR thing turns out to be a Fad with no mainstream legs.
- max 120M sold and will not outsell the PS2.

SCENARIO 2
- In 2016 you can buy a full Morpheus kit for $199, standalone PS4 with a few free games for $299, PS4+free games + Morpheus for $499.
- VR is a major heavy success and Sony somehow supports VR video which in turn breeds VR porn and every one wants one.
- PS4 will sell 200M+ consoles just for VR porn alone.

In conclusion, the fate of the PS4 outselling the PS2 is VR. The fate of the PS4 selling over 200M consoles is the success of VR. The fate of VR being successful is porn. And I'm not kidding.