|binary solo said:
With the way PS4 seems to be able to stay marginally ahead of Xb one in the USA at $50 higher price, when the free extras are more or less comparable (though the extra controller for Xb one is better than a 3rd game). I wonder if Sony might just go with a $50 price cut this year to see what happens.
I have no doubt MS has realised Xb one needs to be $50 cheaper than PS4 in order to stay competitive and have a chance at pulling ahead of PS4 in the USA, which means MS is prepared to race Sony to the bottom on price. I don't think Sony feels like having to compete with a $250 Xb one until at least late in 2016. And if Sony drops PS4 to $299 this year that is exactly where MS will go. Even if Sony can afford to go to $299, going to only $349 allows Sony to put a great deal of value into bundles, and it means Sony can go to $299 for Black Friday and Cyber Monday (as long as they can supply the market.
And speaking of supplying the market, at $299 Sony may not be able to meet demand, especially if that pricing adjustment is applied globally. All will be revealed, IMO, in April when Sony gives FY 2015/16 shipment projections. If they are predicting substantial YoY growth then a $100 price cut is likely. If the growth is expected to be modest, or flat, then we will be seeing a $50 price cut.
IMHO if Sony can break even or make a slight profit on the hardware, they will drop the PS4's price to $299.
The PS2, IIRC got a $100 price drop ($299 -> $199) less than 2 years after its release. I have a feeling Sony will be agressive with the PS4, regardless of what MS does.
MS can affort to sell the XBO for $149 and eat the losses, if they so desire. It doesn't mean they'll be dumb enough to do it.
I have a feeling the XBO might be sold at a small loss or break even, whereas Sony is making a nice profit on each PS4 sold. I expect both systems to have internal revisions, but no "slim" or redesign version for either this Fall. The casing will likely be the same, however, if one of them will go ahead and do a slim version this fall, I expect it to be MS.
This fall I expect
- $299 PS4, 500GB SKU
- $399 PS4, 1TB SKU with a bundled game, maybe with camera as well
- $299 XBO, 500GB SKU (MS will have firesales with bundled games and temp drop prices to $249)
- $399 XBO with Kinect and game
Expecting slight profit or breaking even on the cheaper SKU and decent profit on the expensive SKU. Of course, there will be more bundles and other stuff, maybe a PS4/Morpheus or PS4/VIta or PS4/Morpheus/Vita bundle? No idea. Plus your usual BFs and Cyber Mondays deal. However, like you said, we'll know Sony's intention for sure with their FY forecast, especially since they still need to drop the PS3's price as well.