I doubt the numbers of hardcore Nintendo fans that jumped the train are big compared to the numbers of casuals gamers who bought a wii ,without those casuals wii software would have sold a lot less and doubt a yokai watch,animal crossing and pokemon home console version be as big as handheld version

The PS4 will definitely outsell the Wii U lifetime in Japan. Even the Wii didn't do that much better than the PS3, outselling it by only 25% and falling, despite the PS3's early high initial price and lineup up into 2009, the Wii phenomenon coming very quickly, and the presence of Monster Hunter Tri on the Wii.

The real question is, when can the PS4 reach the Wii U, and how much higher will it get?

The Wii U's lifetime will not be much longer than the Wii's, suggesting that it will have few sales after 2018. It is also unlikely that third parties will suddenly flock to the Wii U, but considering how the first big 3rd party game for the Wii was 2009's Monster Hunter, that won't be the big loss. The problem will likely be that Nintendo's various new and returning series will not live up to Wii-era hits like Wii Fit and Sports.Not to mention the price and controller appeal.

That said, the Wii U seemingly has the advantage of being better supported for a longer period than the Wii did. Nintendo has shown quite a level of commitment to making software for the Wii U, including some of its biggest games ever and smaller budget titles like Rainbow Curse. Super Smash Bros and Mario Kart can keep some momentum in 2015 while games like titles like Xenoblade Chronicles X, Mario Party 10, Zelda U, Mario Maker, and Yoshi can keep the Wii U from plummeting too quickly. Not to mention that Nintendo's recent partnerships and workingws with the likes of Capcom and Koei Tecmo could bring more of their games to the system.

The PS4, meanwhile, might have problems reaching even the PS3's status. The PS3 has sold as much as it has in Japan because of some really big retail games not possible (or at least as spectacular) on the Wii or handhelds. These big hit included Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, Warriors, Metal Gear Solid, Tales of, Yakuza, and Call of Duty. Note that these are mostly franchises that existed prior to the PS3, though games like GTA and CoD did become much more popular during this time. Unfortunately for the PS4 though, it appears that some of these series will not help as much this time around.

The big problem is Final Fantasy. FF15 will likely be released in late 2015 or early 2016, based on how Square Enix is finally being a bit more solid with the game's existence. This will be a bit earlier than the PS4 took to get a Final Fantasy. However, Final Fantasy is not as big a brand as it was in 2009. Comparing the sales of FFX and FFX-2 to FFXIII, XIII-2, and Lighting Returns suggests that people were burnt by the series last gen. Even if FF15 is the best numbered entry since the PS2, it has to work its way uphill. Meanwhile, Square Enix also has Kingdom Hearts and Dragon Quest, but those are not getting numbered iterations for a little while, even if DG11 is for the PS4. KH3 will not come out within a year of FF15 due to the overlapping resource consumption. Dragon Quest 9 and 10 were announced three and four years before release, so the lack of word about DQ11 means that it is probably not coming out any sooner than 2018 or so.

As for other big games, Metal Gear Solid shifted towards the PSP last gen in Japan, especially with Peace Walker. Resident Evil 7 will sell well in Japan, but Capcom's financial problems will slow that series down a bit. The Tales of series is not exactly leaping into the next gen, seeing how Zesteria was just released for the PS3. Yakuza is split between gens, slowing down adoption for now. Ironically, only Grand Theft Auto and Call of Duty have no immediate problems, but even now, those will not be THAT big in Japan.

My guess: the PS4 surpasses the Wii U in early 2016, with the Wii U selling 5 million lifetime and the PS4 selling 9 million lifetime.

Of course it won't, but most of the people who own a Wii U in Japan will most likely buy those games due to its popularity, and the Wii U has 2 million, so lets say half buy each game, thats 4 million software sold in a single country, not counting the fact thats only half of the owners and the amount of Wii U owners will grow.

But its plain for all to see that more casuals jumped the train, the people who bought the Wii U are Wii owners that has sivved out the casuals, but that shows the percentage of hardcore fans that bought a Wii U, which at the end of its life cycle will probably be a ratio to 1:5.

I mean the difference would be as big as Monster hunter handheld version vs Monster hunter console version.

Wii software was bought by Nintendo fans and casuals gamers but Wii u has only Nintendo fans,because nobody buy casuals games anymore on Nintendo home consoles dosn't mean the hardocre software sales would increase

I never said that all these games were bought by hardcore fans, i specifically said probably half of the amount sold were hardcore fans, and are not even hardcore games to begin with, i never said that.

Obviously there are peopel who joined, but i doubt its very much. Kids who bought the Wii are probably around 12-16 now and think that Nintendo are kiddy because of that, hence the amount of kids on games like COD (Not to say no kids joined, I myself did), so that leaves the adults, which are most people who joined probably, but most likely only because of the polished games, i can't imagine someone joining because of the Wii's motion controls.

Well, I was mainly a PS1/PS2 gamer before the Wii. The Wii was the console I played the most in the 7th generation. Why? Mostly because I enjoyed motion controls. I'm sure many other Nintendo fans on this site would agree with this sentiment. 

The key word in my post was could, but hell, I feel a little saucy today.

1.) That makes no sense. DQH is a spinoff game. Mainline Dragon Quest games have been exclusive to Nintendo systems for a long time now. Furthermore, they're always exclusive to the highest selling system in Japan, which is the 3DS this gen. Not the PS4. And if it's on the 3DS, it's not far fetched to believe it could come to Wii U eventually.

2.) How do you know that? Pokemon is big in Japan and we've never seen a game like this in the series, so none of us know.

3.) Can they not work on multiple platforms? They've been more Nintendo exclusive than anything, so your point is null and void.

4.) MH3 sold quite well on all platforms. No reason for it to not at least be ported. Exclusivity is highly unlikely, however.

5.) Obviously XCX won't be as big as FFXV, but it can still provide a good boost. 

I also forgot to mention that certain games like Animal Crossing, Paper Mario and SMT x FE should help out as well.

Back when Monter hunter 3 Ultimate was released, both the 3DS and Wii U fanbase were smaller than now, with sales for the console being most likely a bit more than half what it is in Japan, so obviously the sales wouldn't be substantial, however, as there is a bigger fanbase in Japan, and those games have become more popular and known to be on Nintendo systems, sales would increase.

And i am aware that hardcore software sales will increase, because there is a same variety of game on the Wii and Wii U, sales will only decline, but as at least half the sales were most likely hardcore fans, the sales will still be impressive.

Oh, and what is your answer to your actual thread? Because judging by what you are saying i doubt you think it will be bright for the Wii U.

I know, i did too, but the fact is there were also people who did not like the motion controls, which is the majority. If it was not, then how come the Wii U is duplicating the sales of the Gamecube, which was before the Wii, and before the people who started buying Nintendo's hardware?

But that brings me to another point, i think we're getting a little off-track to what this thread is about, we both have probably experienced great times on Nintendo consoles, and give a thumbs up to them for it, which is why i want the Wii U to do well( Not solely) , so they can receive what they deserve.

PS4 will outsell the Wii U without even breaking a sweat. Seriously, Nintendo guys, just admit it. You know just like the rest of us know that the PS4 will outsell it by almost double. Nintendo has every single system seller out except Zelda and it still is only a million ahead even after launching a full year before the PS4. PS4 had literally nothing for Japan last year, but now it does. And guess what? It's heavily outselling the Wii U (for Japan standards). PS4 will also outsell the PS3 in Japan. Fucking bold.