By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - (Edited) Using Amazon isn't entirely accurate to judge NPD sales. Here's why...

SWORDF1SH on 16 February 2015
Protendo said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Playstation guys are more likely to buy from Amazon so this offsets the data and sometime causes conflict with the NPD results. 

Nice statement with 0 data to back it up. I remember last-generation where Xbox 360 was always top of the list by a greater difference in ranking. Must be because Xbox guys are more likely to buy from Amazon. Also Amazon never had the best Xbox One deals, Target almost always has a better deal. If I was buying a Xbox One a few weeks ago I would buy it from Target, and get the same bundle for the same price with the additional Xbox Live and latest Madden included. If I was buying a PS4, everyone has the same deals so I would be lazy and get it on Amazon.

This doesn't mean that Amazon is Playstation land, any more than the US as a whole is Playstation land. Microsoft had retail-specific deals better than Amazon, so if you buy an Xbox One you have more incentive to buy it elsewhere, but that incentive isn't enough to make change the results based on the ranking unless they were next to each other. 

SWORDF1SH said:

On Amazon, the higher up you go, the bigger amount of sales between each position. These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month.

False logic. This is ranking and nothing more. While generally the higher you are the farther the distance that is not always the case. You will find many situations where 1-3 are very close while 5-10 are very close and 10-20 are fairly close. This is ranking, making any claims between the gaps is foolish. 1-5 might have a smaller gap combined then 5 and 6 while 6-20 might also have a smaller gap combined than 5 and 6.

SWORDF1SH said:

Order of top 10 games bestselling platform. NPD first Amazon second

  1. Dying Light (PS4, Xbox One, PC) (PS4 32nd, X1 68th)
  2. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (Xbox One ,PS4, 360, PS3, PC)(PS4 11th, X1 17th)
  3. Grand Theft Auto V (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3)(PS4 22nd, X1 56th)
  4. Minecraft (360, PS3, Xbox One, PS4)(Neither charted)
  5. NBA 2K15 (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)(PS4 62nd, X1 69th)
  6. Super Smash Bros. (Wii U, 3DS)
  7. Far Cry 4 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)(PS4 41st, X1 63rd)
  8. Madden NFL 15 (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3)(Neither charted)
  9. Destiny (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3) (X1 70th, PS4 77th)
  10. FIFA 15 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, Wii, Vita, 3DS)(Neither charted)

Amazon has most software winning on PS4, except Destiny, while NPD shows more software selling better on the X1. Another indication that Playstation fans prefer Amazon for their gaming needs.

Why?

Amazon should never be used for software sales. First of all Amazon has deals all the time and sales are constantly going on, this highly distorts software sales. When they have quick sales, there are more PS4 owners which. These are impulse buys, and so when the deals happen are a lot closer to the userbase than traditional new games at full price. For quite a while games like COW were cheaper on the PS4 on Amazon even though everywhere else had them for the same price. Unlike consoles, the software sales are always in flux and are always a bigger percent in price difference from actual hardware.

Yes I agree with you about the trying to use the Amazon sales ranking to distinguish the amount of sales between each. But there is logic to what I'm saying. Maybe I didn't explain well in OP but read some of the other comments.

And yes, Amazon sales can cause one platform being pushed more than the other but if they have a sale they tend to do both platforms instead of just one. But, like mentioned in other posts, when NPD has the PS4 version of the game ahead, it always is ahead on Amazon but when NPD had the X1 version ahead, most of the time the PS4 is still ahead.



Around the Network
Protendo on 16 February 2015
SWORDF1SH said:

Yes I agree with you about the trying to use the Amazon sales ranking to distinguish the amount of sales between each. But there is logic to what I'm saying. Maybe I didn't explain well in OP but read some of the other comments.

There is no logic trying to distinguish gap size by rank. No matter how you justify it. As someone with a Statistics background, the thought makes me cringe.

Also, Amazon has unequal prices depending on the platform fairly frequently. Just look at Far Cry 4 right now. Just a few hours ago Far Cry 4 was cheaper on the Xbox One by $10. Last month GT4 was cheaper on the PS4 by $10. With slickdeals.com these $10 discounts for one version get a lot of traction. There have been instances where Xbox One software sales showed higher on Amazon ranking than they did on NPD, it didn't happen in the chart you posted, but it has happened.



How are the next-gen consoles trending on social media?  Why are they popular? Join Social Media Monthly to find out what everyone is talking about!

"And everyone's Kickstarter has merit." - Malory Archer 

SWORDF1SH on 16 February 2015
Protendo said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Yes I agree with you about the trying to use the Amazon sales ranking to distinguish the amount of sales between each. But there is logic to what I'm saying. Maybe I didn't explain well in OP but read some of the other comments.

There is no logic trying to distinguish gap size by rank. No matter how you justify it. As someone with a Statistics background, the thought makes me cringe.

Also, Amazon has unequal prices depending on the platform fairly frequently. Just look at Far Cry 4 right now. Just a few hours ago Far Cry 4 was cheaper on the Xbox One by $10. Last month GT4 was cheaper on the PS4 by $10. With slickdeals.com these $10 discounts for one version get a lot of traction. There have been instances where Xbox One software sales showed higher on Amazon ranking than they did on NPD, it didn't happen in the chart you posted, but it has happened.

Yes I agree. I've said so and in several posts.

You need to read what I've written when I say my theory has logic. I wasn't referring the gap size by rank when I'm talking about my theory having logic.

Data on Amazon is offset in favour of PS4 for the following reason; Software - X1 wins on Amazon it always wins on NPD. X1 wins on NPD, a lot of the time PS4 still wins on Amazon. Get you head around that fact. That is a clear trend. Yes I understand that sales do happen but that doesn't effect the overal theory. In fact if anything it could go against my theory and I expect if a strong enough X1 Amazon exclusive deal comes along, we might see the first game to go against my theory. Even then that doesn't disprove it. You get abnormal results when other factors come into play. But apples for apples comparison, I believe my theory will stand. Like I said 15 months of software or hardware data hasn't disproven my theory. That a lot of software thats been released.

Out of curiosity, what statistics background do you have?



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 16 February 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Confirmation Bias.

As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer.

I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything.

Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one.

I wrote it from a subjective pov and said it from my own personal experience and used words like "should" intead of "will" etc. So no need to get on your high horse. I made it clear also.

And even though I used one month of data, I've noticed it in other months. But to start dragging in data from other months will take forever.

Take the theory for what it is. And yes I do think that if the data was a true representation 9 and 18 should equal more than 40k when upscaled to total sales from all stores. that 10k a week difference and when we assume that Amazon, having a guess, has 25% of gaming releated sales, we are talking about 2-3k difference from amazon. 2-3k difference a week from the largest store in the largest market should be a lot closer in the best selling rankings when you consider how many units the items in the top 20 are shifting.

You gave a theory, I countered. Whether or not it is subjective or not does not make my criticism any less valid. Just because some people had the opinion the world is fact, doesn't mean it can't be criticized.  No high horse, just basic common sense.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Smeags on 16 February 2015

Back in the day, whenever someone posted an Amazon thread as "evidence" towards how a game would ultimately sell that week/month/whatever, they'd be bombarded with pictures of baby seals. On VGChartz, using Amazon as a major source was akin to clubbing baby seals.



3DS Rec Thread ~ Wii U Rec Thread ~ Xbox One Rec Thread

Around the Network
SWORDF1SH on 16 February 2015
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Confirmation Bias.

As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer.

I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything.

Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one.

I wrote it from a subjective pov and said it from my own personal experience and used words like "should" intead of "will" etc. So no need to get on your high horse. I made it clear also.

And even though I used one month of data, I've noticed it in other months. But to start dragging in data from other months will take forever.

Take the theory for what it is. And yes I do think that if the data was a true representation 9 and 18 should equal more than 40k when upscaled to total sales from all stores. that 10k a week difference and when we assume that Amazon, having a guess, has 25% of gaming releated sales, we are talking about 2-3k difference from amazon. 2-3k difference a week from the largest store in the largest market should be a lot closer in the best selling rankings when you consider how many units the items in the top 20 are shifting.

You gave a theory, I countered. Whether or not it is subjective or not does not make my criticism any less valid. Just because some people had the opinion the world is fact, doesn't mean it can't be criticized.  No high horse, just basic common sense.

I have no problem in a counter argument. Actually enjoy a decent debate. What you was doing wasn't debating more like shouting your opinion over mine. Again with you're lasted reply you act like your opinion it the only one that matters. No time for people like this. If you want a better understanding of my theory, then read the comments between other in the thread. I don't think I explained it well in the OP.

Just to comment on a few things you said that do not make sense and/or relate to what I'm talking

"Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data"

I used one month as example. In fact there isn't one case where the X1 version is ahead on Amazon and not in the NPD but plenty of cases where the PS4 version is ahead on Amazon but not in the NPD data. That goes from launch to date. If that isn't a clear representation that the data is offset in favour on the PS4 on Amazon then I do not know what is.

"Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one."

One long ass sentence but I think you're trying to say something about hardware not being 1 to 1 so you can compare the software. Or something like that. Not sure what it has to do with what I'm saying.

"I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything."

I souldn't of wrote that but not for the reason you say. I tried to guess what the ideal amount would be between 9 positions in the top 20. The fact is if we do have some idea, which I don't, the data is that fickle to even try and make a guessimate.

"As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer."

Again I'm not sure what point youre making. Amazon is a good representation, I do not deny that but I'm just saying it's slightly offset (maybe for reasons in OP and discussed already). If PS fans do indeed prefer to buy on Amazon, let's say for argument sake, 50% of PS fans buy from amazon and 45% of xbox fans but from amazon. A games sell 110k on X1 and the equivalent game sells 100k on on PS4. On NPD it will show the X1 ahead. On amazon the PS4 version would of sold 50k while the X1 version would of sold 49.5k and be lower ranked. So it can sometimes show PS4 lead on Amazon but be behind on NPD but because of the way it's offset, it will hardly happen the other way around.

But like with some of my other debates, because I put the theory forward, It doesn't mean that I solely believe this theory and nothing else can happen. Just simply looking for a decent debate with people pro theory or people with a decent counter argument.



SWORDF1SH on 16 February 2015
Smeags said:
Back in the day, whenever someone posted an Amazon thread as "evidence" towards how a game would ultimately sell that week/month/whatever, they'd be bombarded with pictures of baby seals. On VGChartz, using Amazon as a major source was akin to clubbing baby seals.

lol how things have changed. I think data is too straight forward for hardware at the moment for Amazon to get it wrong. A lot of close months to come to test Amazon.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 16 February 2015

If you are going to engage in debate, the first thing you should do is make sure you understand both sides.

The fact that you mistook my response as a counterargument proves that you did not understand. A counterargument requires an argument.

All I did was tell you that your math is wrong, not the conclusion you came up with.

If you say:

1+1= 3 and so 3 blah blah blah.

I'm saying:

1 + 1 does not equal 3

SWORDF1SH said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Confirmation Bias.

As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer.

I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything.

Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one.

I wrote it from a subjective pov and said it from my own personal experience and used words like "should" intead of "will" etc. So no need to get on your high horse. I made it clear also.

And even though I used one month of data, I've noticed it in other months. But to start dragging in data from other months will take forever.

Take the theory for what it is. And yes I do think that if the data was a true representation 9 and 18 should equal more than 40k when upscaled to total sales from all stores. that 10k a week difference and when we assume that Amazon, having a guess, has 25% of gaming releated sales, we are talking about 2-3k difference from amazon. 2-3k difference a week from the largest store in the largest market should be a lot closer in the best selling rankings when you consider how many units the items in the top 20 are shifting.

You gave a theory, I countered. Whether or not it is subjective or not does not make my criticism any less valid. Just because some people had the opinion the world is fact, doesn't mean it can't be criticized.  No high horse, just basic common sense.

I have no problem in a counter argument. Actually enjoy a decent debate. What you was doing wasn't debating more like shouting your opinion over mine.

Are you sure you are talking about my post here? I did not give any opinions at all. So I don't know what shouting you are hearing.

Again with you're lasted reply you act like your opinion it the only one that matters. No time for people like this. If you want a better understanding of my theory, then read the comments between other in the thread. I don't think I explained it well in the OP.

If you did then, I wouldn't have quoted it now would I? And I must reiterate this, you are being standoffish toward me about an "opinion" that I never gave. The only thing I stated where FACTS about faulty reasoning in your OP, the only thing my post was concerned with.

Just to comment on a few things you said that do not make sense and/or relate to what I'm talking

"Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data"

I used one month as example. In fact there isn't one case where the X1 version is ahead on Amazon and not in the NPD but plenty of cases where the PS4 version is ahead on Amazon but not in the NPD data. That goes from launch to date. If that isn't a clear representation that the data is offset in favour on the PS4 on Amazon then I do not know what is.

Then you should have mentioned this in the OP in which I responded to. You did not say you used one month as example. How am I supposed to know that.

"Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one."

One long ass sentence but I think you're trying to say something about hardware not being 1 to 1 so you can compare the software. Or something like that. Not sure what it has to do with what I'm saying.

How can you make a claim about what I'm saying if you do not understand it? Here let me simplify it for you:

A faulty conclusion(Yours) cannot use facts about software sales to explain hardware just because the two are related. 

The two data sets not being one to one means that they are not directly correlated.

Also let me explain one to one to you:

Every One hardware(console sold) would also sell One and ONLY ONE software(game). That is One to One. Realistically, One Console can lead to any number of games sold or one to n. Which is using Hardware to predict software.You cannot say the inverse, that n to one or Software to predict Hardware, this is obvious.

"I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything."

I souldn't of wrote that but not for the reason you say. I tried to guess what the ideal amount would be between 9 positions in the top 20. The fact is if we do have some idea, which I don't, the data is that fickle to even try and make a guessimate.

I asked the question because you gave ZERO reason for your conclusion about rank and sales, I already its know its a guess, what I don't know is how you made it. There is a difference between an educated guess, a random guess, and hindsight.

"As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer."

Again I'm not sure what point youre making. Amazon is a good representation, I do not deny that but I'm just saying it's slightly offset (maybe for reasons in OP and discussed already). If PS fans do indeed prefer to buy on Amazon, let's say for argument sake, 50% of PS fans buy from amazon and 45% of xbox fans but from amazon. A games sell 110k on X1 and the equivalent game sells 100k on on PS4. On NPD it will show the X1 ahead. On amazon the PS4 version would of sold 50k while the X1 version would of sold 49.5k and be lower ranked. So it can sometimes show PS4 lead on Amazon but be behind on NPD but because of the way it's offset, it will hardly happen the other way around.

Then you need to reread because I've already said this in my response to you, you DO NOT have the data to make the conclusion, so the only thing you can conclude is that there is a correlation between Amazon Rank and NPD.

But this is OBVIOUS because Amazon is a retailer. 

Your argument is about PS fans prefering Amazon is pointless because you have no evidence. I can simply swap XBox and PS and it still holds true.

But like with some of my other debates, because I put the theory forward, It doesn't mean that I solely believe this theory and nothing else can happen. Just simply looking for a decent debate with people pro theory or people with a decent counter argument.





In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Protendo on 16 February 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
Protendo said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Yes I agree with you about the trying to use the Amazon sales ranking to distinguish the amount of sales between each. But there is logic to what I'm saying. Maybe I didn't explain well in OP but read some of the other comments.

There is no logic trying to distinguish gap size by rank. No matter how you justify it. As someone with a Statistics background, the thought makes me cringe.

Also, Amazon has unequal prices depending on the platform fairly frequently. Just look at Far Cry 4 right now. Just a few hours ago Far Cry 4 was cheaper on the Xbox One by $10. Last month GT4 was cheaper on the PS4 by $10. With slickdeals.com these $10 discounts for one version get a lot of traction. There have been instances where Xbox One software sales showed higher on Amazon ranking than they did on NPD, it didn't happen in the chart you posted, but it has happened.

Yes I agree. I've said so and in several posts.

You need to read what I've written when I say my theory has logic. I wasn't referring the gap size by rank when I'm talking about my theory having logic.

Data on Amazon is offset in favour of PS4 for the following reason; Software - X1 wins on Amazon it always wins on NPD. X1 wins on NPD, a lot of the time PS4 still wins on Amazon. Get you head around that fact. That is a clear trend. Yes I understand that sales do happen but that doesn't effect the overal theory. In fact if anything it could go against my theory and I expect if a strong enough X1 Amazon exclusive deal comes along, we might see the first game to go against my theory. Even then that doesn't disprove it. You get abnormal results when other factors come into play. But apples for apples comparison, I believe my theory will stand. Like I said 15 months of software or hardware data hasn't disproven my theory. That a lot of software thats been released.

Out of curiosity, what statistics background do you have?


That's not how this works.  You can't derive a logical theory out of something that defies logic. 

Amazon has ranked Xbox One above PS4 on multiple occasions which counter NPD. While Microsoft has retail-specific sales that are superior to amazon, software sales are shifted as a result of people buying the Xbox One where there is a better deal and picking up games for their new console. There are 2 facts that counter your argument. 

I double-majored in computer forensics/statistics. I use statistics on a daily basis.



How are the next-gen consoles trending on social media?  Why are they popular? Join Social Media Monthly to find out what everyone is talking about!

"And everyone's Kickstarter has merit." - Malory Archer 

SWORDF1SH on 17 February 2015

 

 

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

If you are going to engage in debate, the first thing you should do is make sure you understand both sides.

The fact that you mistook my response as a counterargument proves that you did not understand. A counterargument requires an argument.
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

You gave a theory, I countered.

Would you prefer if I call it countertheory??

Then I read the next bit where you say I'm saying 1+1=3 and stopped reading. I can see where this is going. It will be a post full of seeing it from one way, ignoring important fact, misunderstanding and twisting to suit you.

We will leave it at that.