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SWORDF1SH on 16 February 2015
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Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Confirmation Bias.

As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer.

I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything.

Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one.

I wrote it from a subjective pov and said it from my own personal experience and used words like "should" intead of "will" etc. So no need to get on your high horse. I made it clear also.

And even though I used one month of data, I've noticed it in other months. But to start dragging in data from other months will take forever.

Take the theory for what it is. And yes I do think that if the data was a true representation 9 and 18 should equal more than 40k when upscaled to total sales from all stores. that 10k a week difference and when we assume that Amazon, having a guess, has 25% of gaming releated sales, we are talking about 2-3k difference from amazon. 2-3k difference a week from the largest store in the largest market should be a lot closer in the best selling rankings when you consider how many units the items in the top 20 are shifting.

You gave a theory, I countered. Whether or not it is subjective or not does not make my criticism any less valid. Just because some people had the opinion the world is fact, doesn't mean it can't be criticized.  No high horse, just basic common sense.

I have no problem in a counter argument. Actually enjoy a decent debate. What you was doing wasn't debating more like shouting your opinion over mine. Again with you're lasted reply you act like your opinion it the only one that matters. No time for people like this. If you want a better understanding of my theory, then read the comments between other in the thread. I don't think I explained it well in the OP.

Just to comment on a few things you said that do not make sense and/or relate to what I'm talking

"Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data"

I used one month as example. In fact there isn't one case where the X1 version is ahead on Amazon and not in the NPD but plenty of cases where the PS4 version is ahead on Amazon but not in the NPD data. That goes from launch to date. If that isn't a clear representation that the data is offset in favour on the PS4 on Amazon then I do not know what is.

"Not to mention you cannot make any reasonable conclusion about buying trends or habits with simply one month of data, use that conclusion to frame what occured in software, and then use that data set to somehow explain hardware, despite the fact that we can already assume that the correlation between hardware and software is not very strong considering the ratio is not one to one."

One long ass sentence but I think you're trying to say something about hardware not being 1 to 1 so you can compare the software. Or something like that. Not sure what it has to do with what I'm saying.

"I mean how exactly do you make the calculation in the following claim: "These 9 positions between the 2 in the top 20 should translate more than 40k between the 2 for the month." Unless you can reliably predict Future NPD results given Amazon ranks within a margin of error, then you haven't proven anything."

I souldn't of wrote that but not for the reason you say. I tried to guess what the ideal amount would be between 9 positions in the top 20. The fact is if we do have some idea, which I don't, the data is that fickle to even try and make a guessimate.

"As of now, the only thing you can conclude is that a higher position on Amazon is likely to correlate with a higher NPD position since NPD is a retailer survey and Amazon is a Retailer."

Again I'm not sure what point youre making. Amazon is a good representation, I do not deny that but I'm just saying it's slightly offset (maybe for reasons in OP and discussed already). If PS fans do indeed prefer to buy on Amazon, let's say for argument sake, 50% of PS fans buy from amazon and 45% of xbox fans but from amazon. A games sell 110k on X1 and the equivalent game sells 100k on on PS4. On NPD it will show the X1 ahead. On amazon the PS4 version would of sold 50k while the X1 version would of sold 49.5k and be lower ranked. So it can sometimes show PS4 lead on Amazon but be behind on NPD but because of the way it's offset, it will hardly happen the other way around.

But like with some of my other debates, because I put the theory forward, It doesn't mean that I solely believe this theory and nothing else can happen. Just simply looking for a decent debate with people pro theory or people with a decent counter argument.