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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Will Halo 5 Sell Lifetime?

PenguinZ said:
JustBeingReal said:

Halo may have been the biggest IP MS had in the past, but it only matters to the die hard XBox gamers, the Halo name doesn't always guarantee huge sales of Xbox hardware, ODST, Reach & even 4 didn't guarantee that.

 


ODST sold over 6m... And Reach and 4 sold well over 9 million... What do you quantify as huge sales?


Halo 3 sold 12 million units up until now, but no Halo game released after that pushed numbers higher than that.

The games released after Halo 3 weren't system sellers by themselves, rather Halo 3 and a combination of releases made their sales happen.

As far as the "huge sales" comment I was talking about single games and their ability to move hardware. If a game by itself moves multiple millions of units of a console by itself, that's a huge system seller. Halo 3 being the biggest seller and 1st Halo game on Xbox 360 was the system seller, the subsequent releases did well because of Halo 3 and said subsequent games both being on the system.

Halo 5 will be the Halo 3 of this generation, but I doubt it's going to be close to Halo 3 for units sold or have the same kind of effect on hardware sales as Halo 3 did for the 360.

 

In the past I had to have a 360 because I wanted to play Halo 3, but I decided to wait until more games were out, this generation I can gladly wait until other games are released for the XB1 before I will be willing to get one.

Only the die hards are the ones that must jump to buying the system because Halo releases on it.

Just like me most people will wait until there is a library of content they want, to make the investment in the platform worthwhile, a single £40-$60 game, with a campaign I'll play through once and a multiplayer I won't touch isn't enough for me to buy the system. Most people think about the full package the platform has to offer nowadays.



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small44 said:
JustBeingReal said:
small44 said:
JustBeingReal said:
PenguinZ said:
Dallinor said:

If you think it's only going to do 60-70% of Halo 5's total sales (8-9m lifetime) that's only between 5.4-6.3 million lifetime for Uncharted 4.

The franchise has seen growth with each installment on the PS3 and Uncharted 3 is at 6.6m right now. I'd say, unless the game falls below expectations, it should reach over 7m lifetime so at least 75%-80% of Halo5.

Well, Uncharted 4 is releasing on a smaller userbase compared to to 2 and 3, so it's not entirely unbelievable that it could fall within that range. 

 

PS3 was at 26 million units sold when Uncharted 2 came out, PS4 will be well over 30 million by this October. Uncharted 4 will definitely be releasing on a bigger install base than when Uncharted 2 was released.

With PS4's much faster sales compared to PS3, Uncharted 4 looking like the best in the series so far and the overall growth of the series it's very much likely that Uncharted 4 will sell between 8 and 10 million units, maybe even topping 10 million.

 

Halo is a series that seems to be on the decline, the beta did quite a bit of damage, the changes to the games multiplayer formula don't seem to be very well received among die-hard fans of the series. People have already had a lot of the COD AW, Titanfall style movement in FPS games. I don't think Halo 5 will be a game to move systems, so it will likely be a game that the existing install base will lap up, because exclusives are pretty lacking in 2015 on XB1.

I can't remember if I've commented in this thread before, but I don't think Halo 5 will sell more than 8 million, like I say largely due to XB1 lacking exclusives this year.

Halo is the biggest Microsoft IP it will always boost Xbox console by a lot just like Gran Turismo and Mario

 

Halo may have been the biggest IP MS had in the past, but it only matters to the die hard XBox gamers, the Halo name doesn't always guarantee huge sales of Xbox hardware, ODST, Reach & even 4 didn't guarantee that.

Halo 5 seems to be a big departure from what made the series popular and that's Chief and his relationship with Cortana. Halo 5 seems to be more about Locke, he's a new character, it's not clear what effect his focus, all of the changes to the gameplay mechanics will have on sales of the series. Halo 5 seems to be very much like Titanfall's pilot movement, in which case people that are interested in that kind of gameplay already own an XB1. MCC will also have eaten up some of the system sales of Halo.

 

Halo 5 is facing a lot of competition this year, more exclusives are present on alternate platfoms and one game can't beat the public interest of a slew of releases.

If Halo is not the biggest IP MS had what it's the biggest IP Microsoft had.Reach boosted xbox360 sale by 100k.

The name alone will make the game sale no matter how bad the game is,and MCC will have no effect on Halo 5 .Halo is bigger then Titan fall so not everybody who is interested in this kind of  gameplay  have an XB1。


A 100K hardware sales boost is miniscule on the grand scheme of things, considering claims that Halo is a huge system seller that's not a big number of systems to move off of the back of a game release.

No, Halo 3 was the huge system seller, the game sold 12 million units, no Halo game after that sold more, which proves the audience wasn't grown because of a single Halo release after Halo 3, rather some of the fans of Halo 3 decided to try the games released after that, but later Halo games didn't create a new audience by themselves, the library effected the sales of the platform, not a single release of the series.

 

There's no way to know how big Titanfall may become, Halo 1 and 2 (sold 8.49 million according to VG Chartz) didn't move the numbers 3 did, they also had a very well focused single player campaign with a deep lore surrounding that, yet Titanfall has still managed to sell 4.24 million units in like 9 months, not bad for a new IP, even Halo 2 didn't move units that quickly and it had more going for it.

 

Status of "huge system seller" demands that a single game moves big numbers because it lands on the platform.



15 million in the bag



Few games boost a console by 100k in 1 week

We can say the same about Mario and Gran turismo no Gran turismo after Gran turismo 3 sold more then it and no mario game sold more then Super Mario Bros on nes.I never saw someone that said Halo 5 will be the best selling Halo game anyway.

How can you compare Titanfall with Halo Titan fall is in 3 platform and Halo in 1 platform



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Silvermen said:
15 million in the bag

O_o



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JustBeingReal said:

Halo 3 sold 12 million units up until now, but no Halo game released after that pushed numbers higher than that.

The games released after Halo 3 weren't system sellers by themselves, rather Halo 3 and a combination of releases made their sales happen.

As far as the "huge sales" comment I was talking about single games and their ability to move hardware. If a game by itself moves multiple millions of units of a console by itself, that's a huge system seller. Halo 3 being the biggest seller and 1st Halo game on Xbox 360 was the system seller, the subsequent releases did well because of Halo 3 and said subsequent games both being on the system.

Halo 5 will be the Halo 3 of this generation, but I doubt it's going to be close to Halo 3 for units sold or have the same kind of effect on hardware sales as Halo 3 did for the 360.

In the past I had to have a 360 because I wanted to play Halo 3, but I decided to wait until more games were out, this generation I can gladly wait until other games are released for the XB1 before I will be willing to get one.

Only the die hards are the ones that must jump to buying the system because Halo releases on it.

Just like me most people will wait until there is a library of content they want, to make the investment in the platform worthwhile, a single £40-$60 game, with a campaign I'll play through once and a multiplayer I won't touch isn't enough for me to buy the system. Most people think about the full package the platform has to offer nowadays.

All the Halo's after Halo 3 only boosted hardware because Halo 3 existed? Am I reading this incorrectly or what? Because sales boosted quite a bit the week each of the Halo's released, common sense would dictate that the 360 systems sales rose on those weeks because Halo is a system seller. It seems like your trying to come up with random reasoning for why the system boosted so much in one week when each of the Halo's released but there's a simple answer; Halo is a system seller and that's that.

How do you know only the die hards are the ones that must jump to buying the system because Hale releases on it? How many people do you have compiled into your survey (I'm assuming you have one...not)?

And how do you know most people think about the full package when games like AC: Unity/Rogue released just last year are among the most knowingly bugged and incomplete game and still went on to sell 10 million units?

A better reasoning would be the same reasoning why all the other Halo's sold such huge numbers, Multiplayer with friends and a bumping community.

Halo doesn't sell systems because Viva Pinata or Forza or GTA exist on the console, Halo has always been able to sell on its own, the original Xbox is major proof of this.



JustBeingReal said:

A 100K hardware sales boost is miniscule on the grand scheme of things, considering claims that Halo is a huge system seller that's not a big number of systems to move off of the back of a game release.

No, Halo 3 was the huge system seller, the game sold 12 million units, no Halo game after that sold more, which proves the audience wasn't grown because of a single Halo release after Halo 3, rather some of the fans of Halo 3 decided to try the games released after that, but later Halo games didn't create a new audience by themselves, the library effected the sales of the platform, not a single release of the series.

There's no way to know how big Titanfall may become, Halo 1 and 2 (sold 8.49 million according to VG Chartz) didn't move the numbers 3 did, they also had a very well focused single player campaign with a deep lore surrounding that, yet Titanfall has still managed to sell 4.24 million units in like 9 months, not bad for a new IP, even Halo 2 didn't move units that quickly and it had more going for it.

Status of "huge system seller" demands that a single game moves big numbers because it lands on the platform.

100k is the first week only. People don't just stop buying Halo or Xbox's a week after release. Some people have to wait until their birthday or christmas and on those days Halo will reach out to a huge crowd of people because Halo is one of the biggest single games to drive sales for the Xbox platforms, always has been and will continue to do so. If you think that Halo isn't a huge system seller on its own when their is proof that it is then that's your choice to ignore it.



A_C_E said:
JustBeingReal said:

Halo 3 sold 12 million units up until now, but no Halo game released after that pushed numbers higher than that.

The games released after Halo 3 weren't system sellers by themselves, rather Halo 3 and a combination of releases made their sales happen.

As far as the "huge sales" comment I was talking about single games and their ability to move hardware. If a game by itself moves multiple millions of units of a console by itself, that's a huge system seller. Halo 3 being the biggest seller and 1st Halo game on Xbox 360 was the system seller, the subsequent releases did well because of Halo 3 and said subsequent games both being on the system.

Halo 5 will be the Halo 3 of this generation, but I doubt it's going to be close to Halo 3 for units sold or have the same kind of effect on hardware sales as Halo 3 did for the 360.

In the past I had to have a 360 because I wanted to play Halo 3, but I decided to wait until more games were out, this generation I can gladly wait until other games are released for the XB1 before I will be willing to get one.

Only the die hards are the ones that must jump to buying the system because Halo releases on it.

Just like me most people will wait until there is a library of content they want, to make the investment in the platform worthwhile, a single £40-$60 game, with a campaign I'll play through once and a multiplayer I won't touch isn't enough for me to buy the system. Most people think about the full package the platform has to offer nowadays.

All the Halo's after Halo 3 only boosted hardware because Halo 3 existed? That's what I said, not hard to understand really. The biggest selling Halo game on any platform, sold 12M units, no later Halo release sold more, even the week Halo 3 came out there wasn't a huge sales increase on the level of something like Destiny (440K units of hardware vs like 2.2M units of software)

Am I reading this incorrectly or what? Yes you're reading it correctly and it makes logical sense.

Because sales boosted quite a bit the week each of the Halo's released, Not really even though Halo 3 sold 3.8M units of software, it still only caused HW sales to go from 164,012 to 231,539 in the week Halo 3 came out, that's only a 67,527 increase, not that great really, what that tells us is that most people interested in Halo had already bought and XBox 360, the same is likely true of Halo 5.

 

common sense would dictate that the 360 systems sales rose on those weeks because Halo is a system seller. It seems like your trying to come up with random reasoning for why the system boosted so much in one week when each of the Halo's released but there's a simple answer; Halo is a system seller and that's that.

You're majory failing to prove your point, where's the inarguable proof of halo being a system seller?

In order to be a system the series needs to cause hardware sales to increase proportionately with the software sales when game from that series come out, but that isn't what the numbers tell us, not at all.

Actually the games sell inarguably well, there's no doubting that, but the hardware sales don't rise in line with the software sales.

Halo 3 proves this, by only selling 67.5K 360's the week the game comes out, even though Halo 3 sold 3.8M units of the game.

360 sold 129,865 the week before ODST came out, but the week ODST released 360 sold 147,808, so ODST only caused a rise of 17,943 in XBox 360's hardware numbers.

 

Then looking at Reach, it sold 3,698,137 in software, but the week before the game came out Xbox 360 had sold 158,605, the week of Reach coming out it sold 264,466.

Then looking at Halo 4, it sold 3,662,557 software, 360 sold 241,278 the week before H4 came out, but 379848, so Halo 4 caused a sales rise of 138,570, dispite the game selling 3.6M units of software.

That tells us that the install base was largely there for Halo on the 360, people had already mainly bought the platform before any of these Halo games came out, with ODST being the weakest system seller and Reach being the biggest system seller, but none are really huge system sellers and that's what the numbers support.

 

Of course most people already knew Halo was coming out on the system, so they had already bought the platform.

The same will likely be the case for XB1, but we'll see what happens when Halo 5 comes out.

If Halo 5 sells over 3 million the week of it's release, but the hardware only rises by 150K

 

How do you know only the die hards are the ones that must jump to buying the system because Hale releases on it? How many people do you have compiled into your survey (I'm assuming you have one...not)?

Because that's what history tells us, the game always sells well, no one can dought that, but the hardware sales don't rise in line with those software sales, they're always far lower, well below a 10th of the figure of software sales, I've give you the numbers above, but feel free to double check them yourself.

And how do you know most people think about the full package when games like AC: Unity/Rogue released just last year are among the most knowingly bugged and incomplete game and still went on to sell 10 million units?

Because it's logic, a mulitple 100 dollar or pound device usually warrants thinking about what you're going to want to do with it.

If people only bought a console for one game, then hardware sales would be in line with that one game's sales figures when it comes out, that doesn't happen, in fact there's usually a huge disparity between software (being the highest figure) and hardware when most games come out.

Halo is actually an example of this.


A better reasoning would be the same reasoning why all the other Halo's sold such huge numbers, Multiplayer with friends and a bumping community.

Not really, Halo has huge numbers, because the people who want the game have already bought the console.

Multiplay and friends playing is one thing, but it's not the full reason, but people have already bought the platform because they have known the game was coming, but Halo isn't the only game they want, they play COD, they play Battlefield, Forza, basically everything that interests them.

Halo doesn't sell systems because Viva Pinata or Forza or GTA exist on the console, Halo has always been able to sell on its own, the original Xbox is major proof of this.

Halo has already had it's effect, because the game was announced for the system and people knew it was coming. History shows that people bought an XBox 360 well before any of those Halo games had come out on the system, the fact that even Halo 3 sold 3.8M units of software, yet 360's numbers only rose by 67.5K shows this is the truth.

It looks like you can't handle the truth, but I'm afraid the facts are what they are.


See bolded text in the reply above.



A_C_E said:
JustBeingReal said:

A 100K hardware sales boost is miniscule on the grand scheme of things, considering claims that Halo is a huge system seller that's not a big number of systems to move off of the back of a game release.

No, Halo 3 was the huge system seller, the game sold 12 million units, no Halo game after that sold more, which proves the audience wasn't grown because of a single Halo release after Halo 3, rather some of the fans of Halo 3 decided to try the games released after that, but later Halo games didn't create a new audience by themselves, the library effected the sales of the platform, not a single release of the series.

There's no way to know how big Titanfall may become, Halo 1 and 2 (sold 8.49 million according to VG Chartz) didn't move the numbers 3 did, they also had a very well focused single player campaign with a deep lore surrounding that, yet Titanfall has still managed to sell 4.24 million units in like 9 months, not bad for a new IP, even Halo 2 didn't move units that quickly and it had more going for it.

Status of "huge system seller" demands that a single game moves big numbers because it lands on the platform.

100k is the first week only. People don't just stop buying Halo or Xbox's a week after release. Some people have to wait until their birthday or christmas and on those days Halo will reach out to a huge crowd of people because Halo is one of the biggest single games to drive sales for the Xbox platforms, always has been and will continue to do so. If you think that Halo isn't a huge system seller on its own when their is proof that it is then that's your choice to ignore it.


I didn't say people stopped buying the game after it's had it's release week, what I'm saying is that most people that want the game already have the platform, they know the game's coming, so they buy it, play other games 1st and then buy it at a later date.

Of course some of that install base for Halo will wait until the system comes down to a price they're willing to pay for it or wait until they see a bundle of games and the console at a price they like, this only supports my point about the library effect and how it effects console sales.

The numbers support what I'm saying, Halo has already largely had it's effect before the game comes out, if that wasn't the case then people wouldn't have have bought 3.8M copies of Halo 3, when the 360 only sold 67.5M units more the week the game came out.

 

Halo isn't the system seller you think it is, it's one game, of a number that people want on the platform.



Yeah, it's a very different situation than when Halo 3 came out. There was nothing else. There was no Call of Duty. Halo doesn't have the appeal it used it. I'm going to say 3.5 million and even that feels optimistic to me.