Again, I just don't see why you think MK and Smash will make such a larger impact in 2015 than they did in 2014. 

More Value is the keyword

They were there in December, along with the gamepad, Amiibos, and the rest of the library.  Yet it only resulted in a modest increase YoY in the US and a substantial decrease in Japan. 

But an increease WW (best month ever in us) (and yes japan is down)

Even if I thought that there was 1000% more value in September 2015 as there was in May 2014, how does that result in more than double sales in 2015? 

"1000%" should be seen over the year.. as the games comes.. (and tops with.. much much much more value (reason to buy)  than before MK8.. when Zelda comes)

How much more value do you think there was on September 2014 versus May 2013?  Now how big of an impact was there on annual sales worldwide?

I don't know.. Much more value.. and theere was an impact in sale.. we alll saw.

Just because they will buy a console

Yes "they" will.. We know that the "casuals" kids 6-15 and 15+ not knowing they want a console yet" Will start buy/get a 8 gen console.. And when this gen is over.. theere will be (I don't know.. let's say 60-120 mill to be sure) a lot of "casuals"

(though I'd argue a huge percentage of casual Wii owners won't buy any console)

A "huge % Wii owners will not buy a WiiU.. Yes i agree.. Out of the 100 mill. owners for sure.. But remeber.. there all the time coms new kids and familys.

doesn't mean they will buy one in 2015 just because. 

No it Doesn't mean that.. but nevertheless.. a bigger "%" of console buyers in 2015.. Will be "casuals" than they where in 2014

Can you show me a console that doubled its sales based on games released the year before and no price cut?

Can you show me a console who whent from 100 mill sold one gen to 20 mill the next.. :)  (doesn't mean it won't happen)

The number of PS4s sold does not make your Wii U prediction any more reasonable. 

It does if you can acept my "thougt" "if Nintendo get (not all.. just start) the casuals onboard in 2015" then it do not sound that "insane"

Sony sold 20 million PS2s in a year and you don't think the Gamecube selling a third of that is achievable?  Well it wasn't.

I will not comment and use time to read up about past consoles.. But what is your point.. This is a new time.. New customors.. Don't have to be the same.

So you don't think Japan will be up YoY? 

NO

If they are down by 25% this year, that will mean the rest of the world will need to be up 127% in order to be up 100% overall.

No that does not mean that.. In 2014 Japan only stood for 16% of WiiU sale.. that means.. if Japan is down 25% in 2015.. rest of world have to be up 4% to make up for that.. That ultimate means.. (to double sale)  Rest of world have to be atleast 103% higer.. to make up for japan being 25% down.

That also means if Wii U's January NPD is less than 111k, Europe/the rest of the year will need to be even higher than 127% up.  And so on and so on.

Januar NPD don't need anything :)  I'm talking the hole year.. that means januar has to show "good news" not more.

What are these 4-6 "true Wii U sellers" that are on par with Mario Kart, Smash, and Mario? 

Splatton, MarioMaker, Zelda.. Are the sure ones.. X, Starfox, could also be big.. Then there are the unknows.. "dedicated" Amiibo game.. some 3-5 games we know could also "tip it over" some casuals.. And last.. Projekt guard..  I saw this game in trehouse.. what an insane "casual" game.. make you own labyrinths.. setup.. guard them.. (share online) and really show of "asymmetric gameplay"

Also they are presumable bigger than Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Hyrule Warriors, Nintendo Land, Wii Party, Wind Waker, etc since those didn't make the cut.

Exept Nintendoland.. Theese are not that big casual games.. (yes Donkey is.. but we just had a very beatyful Donkey on the wii to.. So there wasent any real "wow" factor when "a casual" saw that game)

You said both.  That Wii U and 3DS would be greater than 2x 2014, and then you went on to say you believe both the Wii U and 3DS could double their 2014 numbers.

Yes I did.. like isaid.. mayby to fast with 3DS.. but I still think it will do a lot better than 2014

FromDK said:

But an increease WW (best month ever in us) (and yes japan is down)

FromDK said:

I don't know.. Much more value.. and theere was an impact in sale.. we alll saw.

FromDK said:

If they are down by 25% this year, that will mean the rest of the world will need to be up 127% in order to be up 100% overall.

No that does not mean that.. In 2014 Japan only stood for 16% of WiiU sale.. that means.. if Japan is down 25% in 2015.. rest of world have to be up 4% to make up for that.. That ultimate means.. (to double sale)  Rest of world have to be atleast 103% higer.. to make up for japan being 25% down.

FromDK said:

Januar NPD don't need anything :)  I'm talking the hole year.. that means januar has to show "good news" not more.

FromDK said:

What are these 4-6 "true Wii U sellers" that are on par with Mario Kart, Smash, and Mario? 

Splatton, MarioMaker, Zelda.. Are the sure ones.. X, Starfox, could also be big.. Then there are the unknows.. "dedicated" Amiibo game.. some 3-5 games we know could also "tip it over" some casuals.. And last.. Projekt guard..  I saw this game in trehouse.. what an insane "casual" game.. make you own labyrinths.. setup.. guard them.. (share online) and really show of "asymmetric gameplay"

Also they are presumable bigger than Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Hyrule Warriors, Nintendo Land, Wii Party, Wind Waker, etc since those didn't make the cut.

Exept Nintendoland.. Theese are not that big casual games.. (yes Donkey is.. but we just had a very beatyful Donkey on the wii to.. So there wasent any real "wow" factor when "a casual" saw that game)

Even factoring in the undertrack in the US, the Wii U was only up 3.6% worldwide for the month of December.  That's not the kind of performance that screams it will double in the next year.

You can also look at it more positive.. WiiU are up 15 %.. WW for the hole year (when i do the math)

The impact for the year as a whole ended up being fairly minor.  VGC shows it up 13%.

13 or 15%.. Is still a positive impact (and until futher is showed.. can't be talking as bad sign imo)

Ok, let's work this out using your numbers.  Last year for every 100 units sold, 16 were in Japan, 84 were in the rest of the world.  This year that 16 will be down to 12.  They need to sell at least 200 to double last year.  If 12 come from Japan, they need 188 in the rest of the world.  188 is 124% more than 84.  I think I was using Media Create numbers which have a different end point for the year from VGC, that's why my other figure was slightly different.  The rest of the world has to not only make up for Japan's drop, but also the deficit of Japan not being double. 

I have no clue how you are getting 103% though.

25% drop from Japan 2014 would be 416,522

103% increase in the rest of the world would be 5,998,486

That would put the Wii U at 6,415,008; over 600k short of doubling 2014.

The 103% was calculatet in the head.. But so lets say 107% more in west.. 

WiiU had a pretty lausy year in japan.. with Splatton, X, Mariomaker, and Zelda.. I find it very hard to believe it will be down 25%.. if at all

But do not hang on to small calculation and specific month.. My point is not that WiiU precisly hits 100%.. But that i think WiiU will sell much better in 2015.. and 6,2 mill WiiU is very much archivable.

Yes, and the whole year will need to be even higher if January can't meet the ~125% up that it needs to hit your prediction.  There is also the fact that early 2014 was the weaker part of the year for the Wii U.  If 2015 can't keep up with 2014 in January, how will it do it in June for example?

That is correct.. thats why i'm not looking for "125 %" higher januar.. It just have to better than 2014..  show good sign.

And in june It have to be on track to double 2014 (how precis for that month.. we have to see :)

So those games I listed don't count because they aren't big casual games, but Splatoon, Zelda, X, and Starfox do count?  I didn't list the big casual games because they weren't so big on the Wii U.  Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, Just Dance, Mario and Sonic.  All huge on the Wii, but sank on the Wii U.  Once again, this just seems to be repeating the past.  A year ago people would be listing Donkey Kong, X, Mario Kart, Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors, Smash, FExSMT, etc as reasons for strong sales in 2014.  Then the year actually passes and only two are remembered as moderate system sellers.  The same seems likely to happen with your list for 2015.

Didn't have time to respond to everything, but most of what I left out was just dealing in opinion and going round and round.

You asked me..  I see MK8 and Smash as the real sytstem sellers..of the games allready out

As I see it.. Fit. Sport. just dance, donkey. do not have that "wow" factor the casuals wants.. (they did in last gen.. but not anymore)

Splatton. Mariomaker. and Zelda.. I see as "system sellers" this year also.. Games there will show the casuals some new.. and has "wow" factor.. Amiibo game.. could also be "wow"

I also see Projekt Gaurd, X, and starfox as some in minor degree.. The games you listet.. and other games comming this year.. are offcourse still AA(A) games.. and they will also do theire part.

You can also look at it more positive.. WiiU are up 15 %.. WW for the hole year (when i do the math)

13 or 15%.. Is still a positive impact (and until futher is showed.. can't be talking as bad sign imo)

The 103% was calculatet in the head.. But so lets say 107% more in west.. 

WiiU had a pretty lausy year in japan.. with Splatton, X, Mariomaker, and Zelda.. I find it very hard to believe it will be down 25%.. if at all

That is correct.. thats why i'm not looking for "125 %" higher januar.. It just have to better than 2014..  show good sign.

And in june It have to be on track to double 2014 (how precis for that month.. we have to see :)

You asked me..  I see MK8 and Smash as the real sytstem sellers..of the games allready out

As I see it.. Fit. Sport. just dance, donkey. do not have that "wow" factor the casuals wants.. (they did in last gen.. but not anymore)

Splatton. Mariomaker. and Zelda.. I see as "system sellers" this year also.. Games there will show the casuals some new.. and has "wow" factor.. Amiibo game.. could also be "wow"

It's not a bad sign, it's just not a sign that the Wii U will double in 2015.  Mario Kart, Smash, Amiibo, the gamepad, free online, cheaper than the PS4/XBO all of that was there in December and it only saw single digit percentage growth YoY.

Thats my point.. Not a bad sign..   I agree.. (and you could also say.. 15% up ww.. for the year)

And yes.. MK8. Smash. Amiibo (and the gamepad) was out in dec 2014 also.. (but lot of "casuals" did'nt know about it.. they will first really see it this year.. And new games like splatton and Mariomaker  (and other) will futher get the casual more interestet.. imo

This isn't a matter of opinion where we can compromise.  It isn't 103% or 107%.

You could have made the same argument a year ago and replaced those games with Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, and Smash.  Much more proven sellers than the three you listed.  Yet the Wii U was still down in Japan for 2014.  Three weeks into 2015 and it is down 35% based on Media Create numbers.

Your original point was actually more than 100%, but if you want to drop it to 77% then we're getting somewhere.

First.. you said that japan being down 25% would require west to up 125% to double.

Then I point out that.. that is not the case.. becourse Japan only stood for 16% of last years WiiU sales.

I say why you are wrong on the math.. and do a quik headmath (and 103%.. more in west to reach double sales..  Is think is pretty spot on)

(instead of sayin.. "yes your right" I was to fast.. you start to nicpick the numbers.. come on)

In my world a estimate of double sale.. do not have to 100% spot on.. And it would infact be insane if WiiU hit it that precis (+-0%)

All my post in this tread talk about double sales (6,2 instead of 7,2 it was a "key error" my mistake) 

But what do you mean.. can you see and 77% increase happen.. (becourse then we are getting some where.. yes :)

Being up 5% in January is better than 2014 and might be a good sign in general, but it is not a good sign for the Wii U doubling in 2015.

In the first five months of 2014 the Wii U did 310k in the US.  Let's say it is up 30% this year, that's a good sign right?  That would put it at 403k.  However if it needs 125% in the US to double worldwide that means in just those months it would already have a deficit of 294.5k.  If June was also only up 30% that would add another 133k.  Now the last half of the year needs to be up 163%.

5% up in jan..  do not show other that it sold better than last year.. I agree

The actual % in any month.. do not mean that much.. Some month in 2014 was very low other much higher..

So in some month.. you could see a +250% increas from last year..  and some month could even be down (examble MK8 month)

Point is.. We talk the hole year.. not one month. (just for the record.. 250% is an examble.. so don't ask about what month)

This just brings us back to what I was talking about earlier.  If MK8 and Smash are the real system sellers, why did they not demonstrate this remarkable console selling ability in November and December 2014?  What will be the switch that will suddenly be flipped in 2015 to cause people to buy a Wii U for MK8 and Smash?  Of those three 2015 system sellers you listed, the first one out is in May.  Is the Wii U going to be doubling prior to that?

I have said it many times now..

More value.. and what i whote in the first answer in this post.

And "please understand" that just becourse a "casual" don't got  a 8 gen console in 2014.. they still could get one 2015

In 2014, Wii U and 3DS sold a combined total of  13,068,773

I think that number will be bigger in 2015!

I predict it will be around 15m-16m

What says you?

FromDK said:

Thats my point.. Not a bad sign..   I agree.. (and you could also say.. 15% up ww.. for the year)

And yes.. MK8. Smash. Amiibo (and the gamepad) was out in dec 2014 also.. (but lot of "casuals" did'nt know about it.. they will first really see it this year.. And new games like splatton and Mariomaker  (and other) will futher get the casual more interestet.. imo

FromDK said:

First.. you said that japan being down 25% would require west to up 125% to double.

Then I point out that.. that is not the case.. becourse Japan only stood for 16% of last years WiiU sales.

I say why you are wrong on the math.. and do a quik headmath (and 103%.. more in west to reach double sales..  Is think is pretty spot on)

(instead of sayin.. "yes your right" I was to fast.. you start to nicpick the numbers.. come on)

In my world a estimate of double sale.. do not have to 100% spot on.. And it would infact be insane if WiiU hit it that precis (+-0%)

All my post in this tread talk about double sales (6,2 instead of 7,2 it was a "key error" my mistake) 

FromDK said:

5% up in jan..  do not show other that it sold better than last year.. I agree

The actual % in any month.. do not mean that much.. Some month in 2014 was very low other much higher..

So in some month.. you could see a +250% increas from last year..  and some month could even be down (examble MK8 month)

FromDK said:

I have said it many times now..

More value.. and what i whote in the first answer in this post.

And "please understand" that just becourse a "casual" don't got  a 8 gen console in 2014.. they still could get one 2015

Yakuzaice said:

My point is that you need more than "not a bad sign" for it to come anywhere close to doubling.  It also just seems like wishful thinking that casuals who still don't know about the Wii U will suddenly know about it in 2015.

Yes i know you mean that.. :) And my point is that.. it has it to start somewhere..

Yakuzaice said:

Maybe stop relying on "quik headmath" and actually work out how the Wii U can reach over 7 million while being down 25% in Japan and up 103% elsewhere.  Then you might see where you are going wrong.

No, I think 77% up is likely still too optimistic.  It is more realistic than 7.2m though.

Yakuzaice said:

Yes, and January was one of those low months.  If it can't show strong YoY growth then, how can it hope to show it later in months that were stronger in 2014?  Not only will it require the rest of the year to be up even more YoY, you have to ask why the trend would change from barely being up to being up massively.

Yakuzaice said:

Just because a casual didn't get one in 2014 doesn't mean they will start getting them in significantly larger numbers in 2015.  Especially when you think it can happen without a price cut.