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FromDK said: But an increease WW (best month ever in us) (and yes japan is down) |
Even factoring in the undertrack in the US, the Wii U was only up 3.6% worldwide for the month of December. That's not the kind of performance that screams it will double in the next year.
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FromDK said: I don't know.. Much more value.. and theere was an impact in sale.. we alll saw. |
The impact for the year as a whole ended up being fairly minor. VGC shows it up 13%.
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FromDK said: If they are down by 25% this year, that will mean the rest of the world will need to be up 127% in order to be up 100% overall. No that does not mean that.. In 2014 Japan only stood for 16% of WiiU sale.. that means.. if Japan is down 25% in 2015.. rest of world have to be up 4% to make up for that.. That ultimate means.. (to double sale) Rest of world have to be atleast 103% higer.. to make up for japan being 25% down. |
Ok, let's work this out using your numbers. Last year for every 100 units sold, 16 were in Japan, 84 were in the rest of the world. This year that 16 will be down to 12. They need to sell at least 200 to double last year. If 12 come from Japan, they need 188 in the rest of the world. 188 is 124% more than 84. I think I was using Media Create numbers which have a different end point for the year from VGC, that's why my other figure was slightly different. The rest of the world has to not only make up for Japan's drop, but also the deficit of Japan not being double.
I have no clue how you are getting 103% though.
25% drop from Japan 2014 would be 416,522
103% increase in the rest of the world would be 5,998,486
That would put the Wii U at 6,415,008; over 600k short of doubling 2014.
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FromDK said: Januar NPD don't need anything :) I'm talking the hole year.. that means januar has to show "good news" not more. |
Yes, and the whole year will need to be even higher if January can't meet the ~125% up that it needs to hit your prediction. There is also the fact that early 2014 was the weaker part of the year for the Wii U. If 2015 can't keep up with 2014 in January, how will it do it in June for example?
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FromDK said: What are these 4-6 "true Wii U sellers" that are on par with Mario Kart, Smash, and Mario? Splatton, MarioMaker, Zelda.. Are the sure ones.. X, Starfox, could also be big.. Then there are the unknows.. "dedicated" Amiibo game.. some 3-5 games we know could also "tip it over" some casuals.. And last.. Projekt guard.. I saw this game in trehouse.. what an insane "casual" game.. make you own labyrinths.. setup.. guard them.. (share online) and really show of "asymmetric gameplay" Also they are presumable bigger than Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Hyrule Warriors, Nintendo Land, Wii Party, Wind Waker, etc since those didn't make the cut. Exept Nintendoland.. Theese are not that big casual games.. (yes Donkey is.. but we just had a very beatyful Donkey on the wii to.. So there wasent any real "wow" factor when "a casual" saw that game) |
So those games I listed don't count because they aren't big casual games, but Splatoon, Zelda, X, and Starfox do count? I didn't list the big casual games because they weren't so big on the Wii U. Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, Just Dance, Mario and Sonic. All huge on the Wii, but sank on the Wii U. Once again, this just seems to be repeating the past. A year ago people would be listing Donkey Kong, X, Mario Kart, Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors, Smash, FExSMT, etc as reasons for strong sales in 2014. Then the year actually passes and only two are remembered as moderate system sellers. The same seems likely to happen with your list for 2015.
Didn't have time to respond to everything, but most of what I left out was just dealing in opinion and going round and round.
