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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Up 27 December 2014

Ninsect on 08 January 2015
Clyde32 said:


Not sure. I haven't checked recently. What we know is we have Yoshi, Kirby, Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Mario Party 10. I think I'm missing something here, but that looks like 1 game per month through may excluding January, which seems to be better than last year. 

 

Those are the "Large" first party games(I'm assuming they will release smallest to largest starting with Kirby). You also have Mario vs. Donkey Kong to release I'm thinking digitally, And the Project games are listed for first half as well. If you choose to count indies(I wouldn't) then there are a lot more scattered around, but like I said, I doubt that will do anything. Mighty No. 9 might, but that's on every platform you can think of, so I wouldn't bet on it. 

This is just NA though, if you want to count Japan you've got a few releases like Rodea and Xenoblade(maybe). And a bunch that I'm missing. 

 

All this is certainly better than what was last year.

Yes but you've also got price fatigue setting in. And as I mentioned, none of those games are big enough to give WiiU substantial boosts. They might prevent a big drop YOY but they won't boost it much.



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Clyde32 on 08 January 2015
Ninsect said:

Yes but you've also got price fatigue setting in. And as I mentioned, none of those games are big enough to give WiiU substantial boosts. They might prevent a big drop YOY but they won't boost it much.


I'm not trying to argue anything, I was just elaborating his point. 



binary solo on 08 January 2015
tak13 said:
binary solo said:
ExplodingBlock said:


My mistake about Mk8 coming out after E3, but I am still sure it can sell 1m before E3

More Games=More Boosts

Mk8 had one big boost, but about a week before E3

MP10 and Mario Maker will provide very nice sales boosts for Wii U

Also you compare Kirby on the Wii, but as you may have forgotten, Wii U has insane attach rates

Yoshi and Kirby will also provide some boosts, not nearly as big as the other games, but still enough to get Wii U above 10m before June

Before June. So we have 22 weeks between 27 Dec and beginning of June. It needs 1.183M sales in that timeframe. So 54K average per week, give or take. A quick scan of the sales graph looks like Wii U averaged about 40K per week in the same timeframe in 2014. That requires a 35% YoY increase on average weekly sales. The problem for Wii U is that while Wii U saw a YoY increase for a sustained period immediately after MK8 came out, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec YoY change was very low. We're looking at a just under 6% YoY increase for the Sept-Dec period. That is the Y0Y change Wii U is carrying in to 2015, it is not carrying the 30ish% YoY increase we saw right after MK8 came out. That is likely to mean 1H2015 will be somewhat flat compared to 1H2014.

If Wii U sees a 10% average weekly YoY increase then it will be end of June and maybe into July when it crosses the 10 million mark.

The only big gun left in Wii U's arsenal is Zelda U, and even that isn't as big a gun as MK, SSB, 2D mario and 3D Mario. These 2nd tier franchises are not likely to cause a substantial increase in the average weekly sales. Still if all the stars align for Nintendo it does have a chance of getting to 10 million before June.

I won't tell about if it is able to  reach  the 10m goal before June!

Zelda will be the holiday title for wii u!;P So we can't use it in the discussion about reaching 10m before June!Zelda is being adored in USA,I think you agree!There are unannounced wii u games,so there must be some other big guns!:P 

Yes, Zelda doesn't factor into the 10 million thing. In fact if Wii U needs to rely on Zelda to cross 10 million in 2015 that would be really bad. So let's assume 10 million before Zelda is a lock.

However, I think you and I have very different notions of what big guns are. We are in 2015 already, and that means for at least the 1st half of 2015 all the big and medium guns have been announced for Wii U. You don't pull out a big gun this late in the piece. The only big gun they could pull out is early release of Zelda U, but that's not likely to happen. Any unannounced games that will be released on Wii U before June will be small titles, which might add to the richness of the Wii U library, but they won't do anything for Wii U sales.



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Clyde32 on 08 January 2015

OT: I think ioi is getting Japan up as we speak, so we should have global within the hour.



Qermity on 08 January 2015
DerNebel said:

I only heard that according to "reliable sources" the X1 was apparently at about 8.5 million sold through at the beginning of December.


I'v heard something else, but impossible to check untill NPD.  Ether way December NPD will be interesting.



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DerNebel on 08 January 2015
Qermity said:
DerNebel said:
 

I only heard that according to "reliable sources" the X1 was apparently at about 8.5 million sold through at the beginning of December.


I'v heard something else, but impossible to check untill NPD.  Ether way December NPD will be interesting.

So what did you hear? If you read it on Gaf then there's no reason to be so secretive. ;)



starcraft on 08 January 2015
CGI-Quality said:
SJReiter said:
Ninsect said:

Sold to consumers*

Really? I thought companies always announced shipped numbers, never sold. 

Sony specified that they were sold to consumer. Google it.

Well...they weren't really that specific



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starcraft on 08 January 2015
CGI-Quality said:
starcraft said:
CGI-Quality said:

Sony specified that they were sold to consumer. Google it.

Well...they weren't really that specific

They were very specific, on more than one occasion. Lets not drag this out again.

I am mostly teasing

Though to be fair, 'very' specific, is not as specific as you've outlined above



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small44 on 08 January 2015

A small celebration for vita LBP Vita reach one million this week



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Groundking on 08 January 2015

I still think that the XBO numbers in ROW are massively over.

I say this as, last gen the ratio between the PS3 and 360 in Europe and ROW were 1.3 and 1.34 respectively, so mostly similar.

Yet this gen, when XBO has almost no presence in Europe outside of the UK (and is worse of in ROW) the ratio is 2.56 and 2.10, whilst an improvement in both for the PS4, I would have expected the ratio to be higher in ROW than in Europe, where the XBO does actually have a strong region in the UK, I also very much doubt that ROW sale are roughly half of Europes sales for XBO. So I think the ratio should be 2.6, giving XBO ROW sales of just under 1m, and overtracking of ~300k, smeared over the past 8 weeks gives numbers of 152.2k, 369.4k, 318k, 370.1k, 908.7k, 468.1k, 427.5k, 508.4k, 497.5k. Granted that's very simplistic, and the overtracking likely goes back much further. But it's still better than what we've got currently IMO.

Edit: Also PS4 software in ROW is massively overtracked, and total software is now overtracked.