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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Up 27 December 2014

tak13 said:
binary solo said:

Global software is now up. All that came out pretty quickly. I get the feeling we'll get W/E 3 Jan fairly soon and we'll finally be back in sync.

CoD:AW ratio is almost the reverse of the CoD 4: MW ratio, way back at almost the start of the 7th generation. That worm has firmly turned. MS might have a hard time holding onto promotional exclusivity for CoD if the CoD bread becomes well and truly buttered on the PS4 side. Then again, all that does is allow Acti to demand more money from MS for any promotional exclusivity, esp timed exclusive DLC. And I think MS is likely to be willing to pay the price. 

Even moreso with Fifa. OMG! If VGC data is remotely ballpark correct I just don't understand EA's mentality giving sweet deals to a console that is selling 1/3 the number of games.

MCC will be at 2 million before long. IIRC I predicted 5 million LTD for MCC. Again if VGC is close to the ballpark then 5 million is almost impossible without the aid of pretty strong digital sales. Halo CE anniversary snagged 65% of it's current LTD in it's first holiday. If MCC follows roughly the same pattern then the retail sales might come in just shy of 3 million. Still a good result, but a bit short of what I thought the fanbase would go for. It is also a good result considering the early online problems reported for MCC. Question is whether this is at all indicative of what the sales potential is like for Halo 5. My guess is, on the likely Xb one install base 8 million for Halo 5 will be an excellent result. Question is can 343 produce a game which can achieve those sales.

Destiny on PS4 should hit 4.55 million in the next chart. After that it'll be under 50K per week more or less permanently I imagine. It'll take a while to get to 5 million, but it'll get there. It's a good result, but nothing like the overhyped expectations prior to launch. And here I was thinking I was being conservative by saying Destiny could get to 15 million. 10 million-ish by 3 Jan, 5 million to go. Can be done, but it'll be a long slow slog. I'm guessing 13 million across all the consoles. That'll be a good target for Destiny 2 to aim at. And it will be clear that Acti will need to loosen the reins on Bungie to allow more of their creative vision to be realised in order to grow the fanchise into a 20 million+ selling IP. The market has spoken, and it's said they are willing to get on board with Destiny, but only if they do better next time.

For my 2 personal GOTYs I am very pleased to see how Dragon Age: Inquisition and Shadow of Mordor are selling on PS4. SoM will be at 2 million on PS4 on the 3 Jan chartz I'm sure. And DA:I at 1.2 Million with excellent sales consistency the last 4 weeks makes me very happy. I sure hope DA:I climbs its way to 2 million on PS4, becoming the best selling DA game on a PS console. And I hope it gets all the way to 2.6 million to become the best selling DA game on any console. Shadow of Mordor should reach 3 million on PS4, which is also going to be a great result for this game. More like it to come I hope, such a gresat mash up of gameplay between AC and Arkham. I'd love to see a Forest based version, perhaps taking place in Mirkwood. That's a massive forest, complete with Elves, who could even be frenemy for a human protagonist, if such a game is timed to just precede the Hobbit, with the Necromancer getting settled in and starting to corrupt the place, with the spiders and all. Fun fun fun. Middle Earth: Mists of Mirkwood.

Did you see this:
Global Software by Platform
Platform Weekly (change) Total
PS3 6,839,061 (-3%) 882,270,039
PS4 5,874,341 (+3%) 82,872,250 As of 27th December!

Didn't ps4 sold 81m software as of 4th January...?


yes, ps4 software is overtracked at least 10m by now
that 81.8m software figure form sony as of 4th january includes digital sales (cheap indi and arcade games, too)

and if we go by the usual 10% digital sales of retail game release, we are at 10m overtracking for ps4 software at lowest



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I feel like the big wild card for Wii U sales in H1 2015 is the price. If they retired the 8G version and price the 32G at $199 the sales story would change. We know they are not taking a loss on the hardware. But of course we don't know what the scope is for reducing the cost of the tablet controller (possibly via a redesign)



niallyb

gunner2k15 said:
tak13 said:
binary solo said:

Global software is now up. All that came out pretty quickly. I get the feeling we'll get W/E 3 Jan fairly soon and we'll finally be back in sync.

CoD:AW ratio is almost the reverse of the CoD 4: MW ratio, way back at almost the start of the 7th generation. That worm has firmly turned. MS might have a hard time holding onto promotional exclusivity for CoD if the CoD bread becomes well and truly buttered on the PS4 side. Then again, all that does is allow Acti to demand more money from MS for any promotional exclusivity, esp timed exclusive DLC. And I think MS is likely to be willing to pay the price. 

Even moreso with Fifa. OMG! If VGC data is remotely ballpark correct I just don't understand EA's mentality giving sweet deals to a console that is selling 1/3 the number of games.

MCC will be at 2 million before long. IIRC I predicted 5 million LTD for MCC. Again if VGC is close to the ballpark then 5 million is almost impossible without the aid of pretty strong digital sales. Halo CE anniversary snagged 65% of it's current LTD in it's first holiday. If MCC follows roughly the same pattern then the retail sales might come in just shy of 3 million. Still a good result, but a bit short of what I thought the fanbase would go for. It is also a good result considering the early online problems reported for MCC. Question is whether this is at all indicative of what the sales potential is like for Halo 5. My guess is, on the likely Xb one install base 8 million for Halo 5 will be an excellent result. Question is can 343 produce a game which can achieve those sales.

Destiny on PS4 should hit 4.55 million in the next chart. After that it'll be under 50K per week more or less permanently I imagine. It'll take a while to get to 5 million, but it'll get there. It's a good result, but nothing like the overhyped expectations prior to launch. And here I was thinking I was being conservative by saying Destiny could get to 15 million. 10 million-ish by 3 Jan, 5 million to go. Can be done, but it'll be a long slow slog. I'm guessing 13 million across all the consoles. That'll be a good target for Destiny 2 to aim at. And it will be clear that Acti will need to loosen the reins on Bungie to allow more of their creative vision to be realised in order to grow the fanchise into a 20 million+ selling IP. The market has spoken, and it's said they are willing to get on board with Destiny, but only if they do better next time.

For my 2 personal GOTYs I am very pleased to see how Dragon Age: Inquisition and Shadow of Mordor are selling on PS4. SoM will be at 2 million on PS4 on the 3 Jan chartz I'm sure. And DA:I at 1.2 Million with excellent sales consistency the last 4 weeks makes me very happy. I sure hope DA:I climbs its way to 2 million on PS4, becoming the best selling DA game on a PS console. And I hope it gets all the way to 2.6 million to become the best selling DA game on any console. Shadow of Mordor should reach 3 million on PS4, which is also going to be a great result for this game. More like it to come I hope, such a gresat mash up of gameplay between AC and Arkham. I'd love to see a Forest based version, perhaps taking place in Mirkwood. That's a massive forest, complete with Elves, who could even be frenemy for a human protagonist, if such a game is timed to just precede the Hobbit, with the Necromancer getting settled in and starting to corrupt the place, with the spiders and all. Fun fun fun. Middle Earth: Mists of Mirkwood.

Did you see this:
Global Software by Platform
Platform Weekly (change) Total
PS3 6,839,061 (-3%) 882,270,039
PS4 5,874,341 (+3%) 82,872,250 As of 27th December!

Didn't ps4 sold 81m software as of 4th January...?


yes, ps4 software is overtracked at least 10m by now
that 81.8m software figure form sony as of 4th january includes digital sales (cheap indi and arcade games, too)

and if we go by the usual 10% digital sales of retail game release, we are at 10m overtracking for ps4 software at lowest


I really can't say how much overtracked is but I was sure that it was!In the row many games are excessively high and it is too early to be that high!

Some are near to NA and EU sales and the attach rate of some is freakingly higher in the Row than in Na & Eu,and normally it shouldn't be...



So even with the Wii U basic bundle with SSBU that came out the 23 in France, the Wii U went down for that week? Interesting, I guess, I would had expected it to maintain itself or go up.



COMG guide to points: 1 point = Raging. 2 points = Beasting. 3 points = Tearing it up. 4 points = Berzerk. 7 points = Rampage. 12 points = Burst. 15 points = god mode. 20+ points = DIVIDING BY ZERO!!! 40+ points = Youkai (originally Pokemon).

-1 = Negabeasting. -5= NegaRampage. -10 = NegaBurst

This is insane for Vita... And look at this, they lowered the price.

http://www.amazon.com/PlayStation-TV-DualShock-3-Bundle-vita/dp/B00KVMHVQ8?&tag=igndeals14-20



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So let me guess, 500K for PS4 for the next week.



tiffac said:
Xbox One undertracked and PS4 ovetracked in the US.

IT HAS TO BE! Dx

Possibly, but VGC is right on track to hit Sony's 18.5 million as at 3 January. So if you have to take sales away from USA then you need to put them somewhere else. So where is PS4 undertracked?

Xb one is an unknown quantity with no PR coming out of MS, so NPD in a week or so will be our benchmark, if someone can sniff out the numbers. Xb one wins Dec in  USA that goes without saying (Amazon confirms this), but if that's all we get from NPD then it's something we already know.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Gilgamesh said:

So let me guess, 500K for PS4 for the next week.

I expect a 50% drop. So 365ish K.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

PS4 slightly up, huh. I guess they're factoring Boxing Day and some countries were presents are given in early January, like Spain or Russia. Plus Japan.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Can't say thatnI'm surprised by any of those sales! Pretty much what I've expected.



                
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