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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Up 27 December 2014

Groundking said:

I still think that the XBO numbers in ROW are massively over.

I say this as, last gen the ratio between the PS3 and 360 in Europe and ROW were 1.3 and 1.34 respectively, so mostly similar.

Yet this gen, when XBO has almost no presence in Europe outside of the UK (and is worse of in ROW) the ratio is 2.56 and 2.10, whilst an improvement in both for the PS4, I would have expected the ratio to be higher in ROW than in Europe, where the XBO does actually have a strong region in the UK, I also very much doubt that ROW sale are roughly half of Europes sales for XBO. So I think the ratio should be 2.6, giving XBO ROW sales of just under 1m, and overtracking of ~300k, smeared over the past 8 weeks gives numbers of 152.2k, 369.4k, 318k, 370.1k, 908.7k, 468.1k, 427.5k, 508.4k, 497.5k. Granted that's very simplistic, and the overtracking likely goes back much further. But it's still better than what we've got currently IMO.

Edit: Also PS4 software in ROW is massively overtracked, and total software is now overtracked.

Xbox has a somewhat strong following in Aussie and NZ. Sure that's only a ~27 million combined population, but in terms of console market it is a bigger market relastive to population base that pretty much every other RoW market, aside from Japan. Also I'm unsure whether Mexio is NA or RoW, can someone clarify? Xbox is a reasonably strong brand in Mexico I believe. So I don't have too much of a problem with RoW ratio being more or less the same as Europe ratio. Though on a LTD basis the RoW ratio should probably be lower since Xb one has only been available in many of those markets for about half the time that PS4 has been available.

MS is likely to only annouce the shipments for the Xbox family. But I think we can pretty safely assume 360 shipments of <1.5M for the December quarter. So it will be reasonably reliable to subtract 1.5 million off the Xbox family shipment number to give us a fair estimate of Xb one shipments. Of course if Xb one shipped particularly well in the December Q, thanks to the US price cuts, MS might be pleased enough to annouce the Xb one shipments. With Sony's 18.5 million sell through announcment though, I don't see them confirming their LTD shipments. They will just leave people to figure that out themselves. If VGC is tracking right then Xb one shipments should be 12-12.5M. Given Xb one is not selling great outside USA and UK I can't see retailers wearing any December quarter channel stuffing, so I doubt MS has been engaging in that practice.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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Global software numbers just updated if that means anything . . .



3DS hit 50m! That's excellent!

PS4 & XB1 did really great this holiday season as well, very impressive.



Meh numbers but spot on tracking for PS4 :)



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Global software is now up. All that came out pretty quickly. I get the feeling we'll get W/E 3 Jan fairly soon and we'll finally be back in sync.

CoD:AW ratio is almost the reverse of the CoD 4: MW ratio, way back at almost the start of the 7th generation. That worm has firmly turned. MS might have a hard time holding onto promotional exclusivity for CoD if the CoD bread becomes well and truly buttered on the PS4 side. Then again, all that does is allow Acti to demand more money from MS for any promotional exclusivity, esp timed exclusive DLC. And I think MS is likely to be willing to pay the price. 

Even moreso with Fifa. OMG! If VGC data is remotely ballpark correct I just don't understand EA's mentality giving sweet deals to a console that is selling 1/3 the number of games.

MCC will be at 2 million before long. IIRC I predicted 5 million LTD for MCC. Again if VGC is close to the ballpark then 5 million is almost impossible without the aid of pretty strong digital sales. Halo CE anniversary snagged 65% of it's current LTD in it's first holiday. If MCC follows roughly the same pattern then the retail sales might come in just shy of 3 million. Still a good result, but a bit short of what I thought the fanbase would go for. It is also a good result considering the early online problems reported for MCC. Question is whether this is at all indicative of what the sales potential is like for Halo 5. My guess is, on the likely Xb one install base 8 million for Halo 5 will be an excellent result. Question is can 343 produce a game which can achieve those sales.

Destiny on PS4 should hit 4.55 million in the next chart. After that it'll be under 50K per week more or less permanently I imagine. It'll take a while to get to 5 million, but it'll get there. It's a good result, but nothing like the overhyped expectations prior to launch. And here I was thinking I was being conservative by saying Destiny could get to 15 million. 10 million-ish by 3 Jan, 5 million to go. Can be done, but it'll be a long slow slog. I'm guessing 13 million across all the consoles. That'll be a good target for Destiny 2 to aim at. And it will be clear that Acti will need to loosen the reins on Bungie to allow more of their creative vision to be realised in order to grow the fanchise into a 20 million+ selling IP. The market has spoken, and it's said they are willing to get on board with Destiny, but only if they do better next time.

For my 2 personal GOTYs I am very pleased to see how Dragon Age: Inquisition and Shadow of Mordor are selling on PS4. SoM will be at 2 million on PS4 on the 3 Jan chartz I'm sure. And DA:I at 1.2 Million with excellent sales consistency the last 4 weeks makes me very happy. I sure hope DA:I climbs its way to 2 million on PS4, becoming the best selling DA game on a PS console. And I hope it gets all the way to 2.6 million to become the best selling DA game on any console. Shadow of Mordor should reach 3 million on PS4, which is also going to be a great result for this game. More like it to come I hope, such a gresat mash up of gameplay between AC and Arkham. I'd love to see a Forest based version, perhaps taking place in Mirkwood. That's a massive forest, complete with Elves, who could even be frenemy for a human protagonist, if such a game is timed to just precede the Hobbit, with the Necromancer getting settled in and starting to corrupt the place, with the spiders and all. Fun fun fun. Middle Earth: Mists of Mirkwood.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Around the Network
Hiku said:
binary solo said:

Xbox has a somewhat strong following in Aussie and NZ. Sure that's only a ~27 million combined population, but in terms of console market it is a bigger market relastive to population base that pretty much every other RoW market, aside from Japan. Also I'm unsure whether Mexio is NA or RoW, can someone clarify? Xbox is a reasonably strong brand in Mexico I believe. So I don't have too much of a problem with RoW ratio being more or less the same as Europe ratio. Though on a LTD basis the RoW ratio should probably be lower since Xb one has only been available in many of those markets for about half the time that PS4 has been available.

MS is likely to only annouce the shipments for the Xbox family. But I think we can pretty safely assume 360 shipments of <1.5M for the December quarter. So it will be reasonably reliable to subtract 1.5 million off the Xbox family shipment number to give us a fair estimate of Xb one shipments. Of course if Xb one shipped particularly well in the December Q, thanks to the US price cuts, MS might be pleased enough to annouce the Xb one shipments. With Sony's 18.5 million sell through announcment though, I don't see them confirming their LTD shipments. They will just leave people to figure that out themselves. If VGC is tracking right then Xb one shipments should be 12-12.5M. Given Xb one is not selling great outside USA and UK I can't see retailers wearing any December quarter channel stuffing, so I doubt MS has been engaging in that practice.

How did you reach that (bolded) figure?

VGC estimated sales for Oct-Dec + a bit. Just a guess. Shipments should be more than 1 million and less than 2 million, if VGC tracking for 360 is at least somewhat accurate.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:

Global software is now up. All that came out pretty quickly. I get the feeling we'll get W/E 3 Jan fairly soon and we'll finally be back in sync.

CoD:AW ratio is almost the reverse of the CoD 4: MW ratio, way back at almost the start of the 7th generation. That worm has firmly turned. MS might have a hard time holding onto promotional exclusivity for CoD if the CoD bread becomes well and truly buttered on the PS4 side. Then again, all that does is allow Acti to demand more money from MS for any promotional exclusivity, esp timed exclusive DLC. And I think MS is likely to be willing to pay the price. 

Even moreso with Fifa. OMG! If VGC data is remotely ballpark correct I just don't understand EA's mentality giving sweet deals to a console that is selling 1/3 the number of games.

MCC will be at 2 million before long. IIRC I predicted 5 million LTD for MCC. Again if VGC is close to the ballpark then 5 million is almost impossible without the aid of pretty strong digital sales. Halo CE anniversary snagged 65% of it's current LTD in it's first holiday. If MCC follows roughly the same pattern then the retail sales might come in just shy of 3 million. Still a good result, but a bit short of what I thought the fanbase would go for. It is also a good result considering the early online problems reported for MCC. Question is whether this is at all indicative of what the sales potential is like for Halo 5. My guess is, on the likely Xb one install base 8 million for Halo 5 will be an excellent result. Question is can 343 produce a game which can achieve those sales.

Destiny on PS4 should hit 4.55 million in the next chart. After that it'll be under 50K per week more or less permanently I imagine. It'll take a while to get to 5 million, but it'll get there. It's a good result, but nothing like the overhyped expectations prior to launch. And here I was thinking I was being conservative by saying Destiny could get to 15 million. 10 million-ish by 3 Jan, 5 million to go. Can be done, but it'll be a long slow slog. I'm guessing 13 million across all the consoles. That'll be a good target for Destiny 2 to aim at. And it will be clear that Acti will need to loosen the reins on Bungie to allow more of their creative vision to be realised in order to grow the fanchise into a 20 million+ selling IP. The market has spoken, and it's said they are willing to get on board with Destiny, but only if they do better next time.

For my 2 personal GOTYs I am very pleased to see how Dragon Age: Inquisition and Shadow of Mordor are selling on PS4. SoM will be at 2 million on PS4 on the 3 Jan chartz I'm sure. And DA:I at 1.2 Million with excellent sales consistency the last 4 weeks makes me very happy. I sure hope DA:I climbs its way to 2 million on PS4, becoming the best selling DA game on a PS console. And I hope it gets all the way to 2.6 million to become the best selling DA game on any console. Shadow of Mordor should reach 3 million on PS4, which is also going to be a great result for this game. More like it to come I hope, such a gresat mash up of gameplay between AC and Arkham. I'd love to see a Forest based version, perhaps taking place in Mirkwood. That's a massive forest, complete with Elves, who could even be frenemy for a human protagonist, if such a game is timed to just precede the Hobbit, with the Necromancer getting settled in and starting to corrupt the place, with the spiders and all. Fun fun fun. Middle Earth: Mists of Mirkwood.

Did you see this:
Global Software by Platform
Platform Weekly (change) Total
PS3 6,839,061 (-3%) 882,270,039
PS4 5,874,341 (+3%) 82,872,250 As of 27th December!

Didn't ps4 sold 81m software as of 4th January...?



Xbox One undertracked and PS4 ovetracked in the US.

IT HAS TO BE! Dx



Monster sales for the top PS4 titles. PS3 taking the over all software spot too so it's games are having serious legs.



Well, the first page of this thread was certainly a "over/under-tracked" fest.