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Forums - Sales - Global Hardware Up 27 December 2014

binary solo on 08 January 2015
ExplodingBlock said:
thelalaby said:

Wrong.

What makes you think Wii U will be up 20% YOY though? That is, of course, assuming it doesn't get adjusted down once we get official data... the last Yoshi and Kirby titles did only okay on the 3DS, and even back in the Wii days, Kirby barely scratched 2 million worldwide. To put things into perspective even more, Wii U was up by less than 5% YOY in November in the US, you know in the month that Smash U released, not to mention that it was down massively in Japan in November and December over last year.

Really, I'm curious. I'd love to hear what makes you so sure about this.


My mistake about Mk8 coming out after E3, but I am still sure it can sell 1m before E3

More Games=More Boosts

Mk8 had one big boost, but about a week before E3

MP10 and Mario Maker will provide very nice sales boosts for Wii U

Also you compare Kirby on the Wii, but as you may have forgotten, Wii U has insane attach rates

Yoshi and Kirby will also provide some boosts, not nearly as big as the other games, but still enough to get Wii U above 10m before June

Before June. So we have 22 weeks between 27 Dec and beginning of June. It needs 1.183M sales in that timeframe. So 54K average per week, give or take. A quick scan of the sales graph looks like Wii U averaged about 40K per week in the same timeframe in 2014. That requires a 35% YoY increase on average weekly sales. The problem for Wii U is that while Wii U saw a YoY increase for a sustained period immediately after MK8 came out, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec YoY change was very low. We're looking at a just under 6% YoY increase for the Sept-Dec period. That is the Y0Y change Wii U is carrying in to 2015, it is not carrying the 30ish% YoY increase we saw right after MK8 came out. That is likely to mean 1H2015 will be somewhat flat compared to 1H2014.

If Wii U sees a 10% average weekly YoY increase then it will be end of June and maybe into July when it crosses the 10 million mark.

The only big gun left in Wii U's arsenal is Zelda U, and even that isn't as big a gun as MK, SSB, 2D mario and 3D Mario. These 2nd tier franchises are not likely to cause a substantial increase in the average weekly sales. Still if all the stars align for Nintendo it does have a chance of getting to 10 million before June.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

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DerNebel on 08 January 2015
Ka-pi96 said:
DerNebel said:

I only heard that according to "reliable sources" the X1 was apparently at about 8.5 million sold through at the beginning of December.

VGC has it at 8.7m. That isn't really that far off.

Well the dude said as of December 3rd but since that is in the middle a week that seems unlikely, so yeah vgchartz seems pretty close at the moment.



Ninsect on 08 January 2015
Clyde32 said:

I'm neutral in this argument, but I'll say that constant releases will improve the baseline, which we don't even know what will be. 

Does it have constant releases, though? What is that, 5-6 games or so in 6 months? Or are there more?



The One and Only

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tak13 on 08 January 2015
binary solo said:
ExplodingBlock said:
thelalaby said:

Wrong.

What makes you think Wii U will be up 20% YOY though? That is, of course, assuming it doesn't get adjusted down once we get official data... the last Yoshi and Kirby titles did only okay on the 3DS, and even back in the Wii days, Kirby barely scratched 2 million worldwide. To put things into perspective even more, Wii U was up by less than 5% YOY in November in the US, you know in the month that Smash U released, not to mention that it was down massively in Japan in November and December over last year.

Really, I'm curious. I'd love to hear what makes you so sure about this.


My mistake about Mk8 coming out after E3, but I am still sure it can sell 1m before E3

More Games=More Boosts

Mk8 had one big boost, but about a week before E3

MP10 and Mario Maker will provide very nice sales boosts for Wii U

Also you compare Kirby on the Wii, but as you may have forgotten, Wii U has insane attach rates

Yoshi and Kirby will also provide some boosts, not nearly as big as the other games, but still enough to get Wii U above 10m before June

Before June. So we have 22 weeks between 27 Dec and beginning of June. It needs 1.183M sales in that timeframe. So 54K average per week, give or take. A quick scan of the sales graph looks like Wii U averaged about 40K per week in the same timeframe in 2014. That requires a 35% YoY increase on average weekly sales. The problem for Wii U is that while Wii U saw a YoY increase for a sustained period immediately after MK8 came out, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec YoY change was very low. We're looking at a just under 6% YoY increase for the Sept-Dec period. That is the Y0Y change Wii U is carrying in to 2015, it is not carrying the 30ish% YoY increase we saw right after MK8 came out. That is likely to mean 1H2015 will be somewhat flat compared to 1H2014.

If Wii U sees a 10% average weekly YoY increase then it will be end of June and maybe into July when it crosses the 10 million mark.

The only big gun left in Wii U's arsenal is Zelda U, and even that isn't as big a gun as MK, SSB, 2D mario and 3D Mario. These 2nd tier franchises are not likely to cause a substantial increase in the average weekly sales. Still if all the stars align for Nintendo it does have a chance of getting to 10 million before June.

I won't tell about if it is able to  reach  the 10m goal before June!

Zelda will be the holiday title for wii u!;P So we can't use it in the discussion about reaching 10m before June!Zelda is being adored in USA,I think you agree!There are unannounced wii u games,so there must be some other big guns!:P 



Ninsect on 08 January 2015
tak13 said:
Ninsect said:
ExplodingBlock said:


My mistake about Mk8 coming out after E3, but I am still sure it can sell 1m before E3

More Games=More Boosts

Mk8 had one big boost, but about a week before E3

MP10 and Mario Maker will provide very nice sales boosts for Wii U

Also you compare Kirby on the Wii, but as you may have forgotten, Wii U has insane attach rates

Yoshi and Kirby will also provide some boosts, not nearly as big as the other games, but still enough to get Wii U above 10m before June

Insane attach rates? It is currently at about 4.7 games per system in over 2 years whereas PS4 is at 4.4 in just over 1 year with a much higher install base.


Try harder!He refers to the major first parties....

It's you again! Hi! How do you know? I didn't see him saying that. Even then, Wii sold about as many games per system as WiiU and the big Nintendo franchises were a lot bigger on Wii than now (MK, NSMB, Smash)



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Ninsect on 08 January 2015
Ka-pi96 said:
DerNebel said:

I only heard that according to "reliable sources" the X1 was apparently at about 8.5 million sold through at the beginning of December.

VGC has it at 8.7m. That isn't really that far off.

It was 3rd of Dec, XB1 is at 9.2m on VGC as of the 5th or perhaps about 9.05m as of the 3rd. The sources said 8.3-8.5m too, thus 8.5m is the high end.



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ohmylanta1003 on 08 January 2015
Ninsect said:
ohmylanta1003 said:
Ninsect said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Wii U starting the year off with 9m! :D 10m before E3 is a given now

Far from it. WiiU sold less than 1m from the equivalent week last year to the beginning of June.

It needs 1.2m this year (pending adjustments). In other words, it will have to be up 20%, which I don't see happening.


There is more software coming out in the beginning of 2015 than there was in 2014, so I'm gonna have to disagree with you. If you'd like, we could bet on it.

Sure, what are the stakes? Just to be clear, we are talking sold to consumers, not shipped?


2 weeks of sig control and we will say according to VGChartz on the day of E3. So, yes, sold through, not shipped. Unless you would like to propose something else?



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

TechnoHobbit on 08 January 2015

Looks like I'll be losing a bet...



Bets:

1. If the Wii U sells closer to 10 million LTD by 1/3/2015 I win. If it sells closer to 9.5 million LTD by 1/3/2015 OfficerRaichu15 wins (winner gets 2 weeks of avatar control)--Lost.

Ninsect on 08 January 2015
ohmylanta1003 said:
Ninsect said:
ohmylanta1003 said:
Ninsect said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Wii U starting the year off with 9m! :D 10m before E3 is a given now

Far from it. WiiU sold less than 1m from the equivalent week last year to the beginning of June.

It needs 1.2m this year (pending adjustments). In other words, it will have to be up 20%, which I don't see happening.


There is more software coming out in the beginning of 2015 than there was in 2014, so I'm gonna have to disagree with you. If you'd like, we could bet on it.

Sure, what are the stakes? Just to be clear, we are talking sold to consumers, not shipped?


2 weeks of sig control and we will say according to VGChartz on the day of E3. So, yes, sold through, not shipped. Unless you would like to propose something else?

No, sounds good!



The One and Only

VizionEck.com

Clyde32 on 08 January 2015
Ninsect said:
Clyde32 said:

I'm neutral in this argument, but I'll say that constant releases will improve the baseline, which we don't even know what will be. 

Does it have constant releases, though? What is that, 5-6 games or so in 6 months? Or are there more?


Not sure. I haven't checked recently. What we know is we have Yoshi, Kirby, Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Mario Party 10. I think I'm missing something here, but that looks like 1 game per month through may excluding January, which seems to be better than last year. 

 

Those are the "Large" first party games(I'm assuming they will release smallest to largest starting with Kirby). You also have Mario vs. Donkey Kong to release I'm thinking digitally, And the Project games are listed for first half as well. If you choose to count indies(I wouldn't) then there are a lot more scattered around, but like I said, I doubt that will do anything. Mighty No. 9 might, but that's on every platform you can think of, so I wouldn't bet on it. 

This is just NA though, if you want to count Japan you've got a few releases like Rodea and Xenoblade(maybe). And a bunch that I'm missing. 

 

All this is certainly better than what was last year.