By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
tak13 on 08 January 2015
Edit Thread
binary solo said:
ExplodingBlock said:
thelalaby said:

Wrong.

What makes you think Wii U will be up 20% YOY though? That is, of course, assuming it doesn't get adjusted down once we get official data... the last Yoshi and Kirby titles did only okay on the 3DS, and even back in the Wii days, Kirby barely scratched 2 million worldwide. To put things into perspective even more, Wii U was up by less than 5% YOY in November in the US, you know in the month that Smash U released, not to mention that it was down massively in Japan in November and December over last year.

Really, I'm curious. I'd love to hear what makes you so sure about this.


My mistake about Mk8 coming out after E3, but I am still sure it can sell 1m before E3

More Games=More Boosts

Mk8 had one big boost, but about a week before E3

MP10 and Mario Maker will provide very nice sales boosts for Wii U

Also you compare Kirby on the Wii, but as you may have forgotten, Wii U has insane attach rates

Yoshi and Kirby will also provide some boosts, not nearly as big as the other games, but still enough to get Wii U above 10m before June

Before June. So we have 22 weeks between 27 Dec and beginning of June. It needs 1.183M sales in that timeframe. So 54K average per week, give or take. A quick scan of the sales graph looks like Wii U averaged about 40K per week in the same timeframe in 2014. That requires a 35% YoY increase on average weekly sales. The problem for Wii U is that while Wii U saw a YoY increase for a sustained period immediately after MK8 came out, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec YoY change was very low. We're looking at a just under 6% YoY increase for the Sept-Dec period. That is the Y0Y change Wii U is carrying in to 2015, it is not carrying the 30ish% YoY increase we saw right after MK8 came out. That is likely to mean 1H2015 will be somewhat flat compared to 1H2014.

If Wii U sees a 10% average weekly YoY increase then it will be end of June and maybe into July when it crosses the 10 million mark.

The only big gun left in Wii U's arsenal is Zelda U, and even that isn't as big a gun as MK, SSB, 2D mario and 3D Mario. These 2nd tier franchises are not likely to cause a substantial increase in the average weekly sales. Still if all the stars align for Nintendo it does have a chance of getting to 10 million before June.

I won't tell about if it is able to  reach  the 10m goal before June!

Zelda will be the holiday title for wii u!;P So we can't use it in the discussion about reaching 10m before June!Zelda is being adored in USA,I think you agree!There are unannounced wii u games,so there must be some other big guns!:P