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Forums - Sales - PS4 and Xbox One adjusted down

ethomaz said:

Jun-Sep shipment was high to Xbone? I wish to know the numbers and not maybe max 7.5m shipped.


Because of combining One+360, we won't know. 7.2m-7.5m shipped is the most likely.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

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PS4 adjusted down over a million.....and people wonder why this site has a terrible reputation for making up its numbers.

 

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Blood_Tears said:

MS usually over stuffs the channel every year so this is normal for them. Heck,  last year they finally sold their Christmas stock around April.


IMO MS wont give us any number in this year. PS4 have already sold the amount that Xbox One will achieve at the end of 2015. So there will be no confirmation about numbers.



kowenicki said:
Funny that. So the only reason to down the ONE is the fact that the PS4 was overtracked. How very scientific.

I'd have waited until after the financials if I was them.

Well in the UK at least the official [non-VGC] word is that PS4 won December and it won Nov+Dec. So given VGC had Xb one winning both months until that news came out AND PS4 was over tracked by 5-600K globally, some of which is bound to be in the UK, then ipso facto Xb one is almost certainly overtracked, in the UK at least; by more than PS4 is over tracked to boot. So there is some science to the Xb one downward adjustment in one market at least, and the 2nd biggest Xb one market for Xb one. And there is at least a bit of logic to conclude that if UK is overtracked for Xb one then the rest of Europe might be too. If there is good evidence that UK accounts for X% of Europe's Xb one sales then a very logical and justified down adjustment in the UK can form the basis of a down adjustment in the rest of Europe.

Based on current VGC numbers Xb one should do about 300K for W/E 27 Dec and 150K for W/E 3 Jan, though it might hold steady for the two weeks given it was the final week of cheap Xb one in the USA. So I think 600K is the max for the remainder of the year. And that would put it at 10.8M at the close of the Dec quarter. Xb one shipments should be pretty close to sell through as MS was probably trying to decrease stock leading in to the price normalisation. So 11.5 shippped LTD is what I would expect, 12M at the absolute outside. Anything over 12M shipped means it's highly probable to be under tracked.

In other news 2014 does not have a 1 million selling week for any console. Which is what I predicted before Black Friday.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

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foodfather said:
To be expected. Shipped ≠ Sold so PS4 is nowhere near the 18.5 mil Sony claim. Xbox One is nowhere near 10 million.

I think you need to stop with repeating that statement all over the forums (well in at least 2 places I know of). I don't know if repeating false statements is a bannable offence but it is getting very tiresome, especially when multiple Xb one fans keep saying it and refuse to accept the Sony PR, as written. The official Sony PR is 18.5 million estimated sell through. Sony knows exactly how much it ships, esp at the end of a quarter, so if the PR was a shipped announcement they would not say estimated. And while the down adjustment is a tad low for VGC to get PS4 to 18.5 M by W/E 3 Jan it won't fall that far short, and for sure PS4 will be at 18 million on VGC come W/E 3 Jan.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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I would not be surprised if X1 is sub 11 million shipped when numbers come out.

Funny to is that sony also said "more then 18.5" that's their safe bet numbers. Likely hood its higher then that, they are just confident in saying that with no chance any one can cry its wrong.



Yesterday some people were criticizing a fanbase of complaining about undertracking and attacking the site, but just a day later the other side complains about the adjust and attack the site of being unprofessional, go figure.

So let's say before Holiday row in vgc had ps4 3:1 over X1... But by some reason during holidays (with no pricecut there) it become 1.5:1 here. Then VGC adjust down ps4 quite some to make the numbers match Sony PR, and if they didn't correct x1 as well we would get x1 maybe even ahead of X1 in RoW. Does it makes any sense at all? Is that only to see a smaller gap or hunt for a week x1 was above PS4? Crazyness...

Going by Bishop rumour, ms close to 10M shipped and normal channel stuffing (and probably some WiiU down adjustments that will be done in time) it's quite possible that 50% marketshare already happened... Ps4 18.5M X1 10-10.5M WiiU 8-8.5M... Pretty good.

And about waiting for MS financials, so we get combined numbers and channel stuffing from q3, and then have to speculate??? Why do that? If VGC at the time Sony and Ms put their shipment numbers verify that ship-sold for both console are too dispar then they can correct x1 accordingly (since ps4 sold through is a "know number" we can use it as base).

Funny as well that when Sony say sold through customer some users says it have to be shipped and invent some minuscule sold numbers, but when MS says they are close to sell (and confirm later they were imprecise and it was shipping) they swear it is sold through... Would end up having 2M on shelves for ps4 and -0.5M for x1 would make sense for them.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
Mafuba said:
PS4 adjusted down over a million.....and people wonder why this site has a terrible reputation for making up its numbers.

It was actually adjusted down by a little under 900K (was 18.2m before, is 17.3m (rounded) now). Nothing new, we always see post-holiday adjustments. But forget all that, direct me to a site that does it better.


There is no other site that does it better because there is no other site that attempts to make up numbers unlike here. Respectable sites wait until an actual source from the company unlike here that just guesses the numbers each week, you all discuss them to death and then it turns out it was all for nothing because they weren't even the real numbers.

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Mafuba said:
CGI-Quality said:
Mafuba said:
PS4 adjusted down over a million.....and people wonder why this site has a terrible reputation for making up its numbers.

It was actually adjusted down by a little under 900K (was 18.2m before, is 17.3m (rounded) now). Nothing new, we always see post-holiday adjustments. But forget all that, direct me to a site that does it better.


There is no other site that does it better because there is no other site that attempts to make up numbers unlike here. Respectable sites wait until an actual source from the company unlike here that just guesses the numbers each week, you all discuss them to death and then it turns out it was all for nothing because they weren't even the real numbers.

 makes me winder what you are doing here.



Puppyroach said:

Ninsect said:

Everything ms said at the meeting was written  down and published online. I got a link to it all yesterday but I don't remember it now. Ask Welfare, he has it. 
You're the one trying to downplay bish of all people... 

Of course I am downplaying it, just as I would do if the same kind of sources were used to judge PS4 sales. Desperation and downplaying are two very different things you know and as I said, it could be both higher or lower than that. I was quite surprised at MS´s jul-sep shipments for X1, since they seemed alot hgher than I woud have guessed. This could be a case of them stuffing the channels but I would NEVER base my judgement on notes that doesn´t say much or one of the most unreliable forums around :).

So what did XB1 ship from Jul-Sep? Ironic that you're more willing to believe figures that were never even mentioned than what is being discussed here. Spoilers: XB1 and 360 shipments were combined.



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