PS4 and Xbox One adjusted down

[binary solo]

kowenicki said:
Funny that. So the only reason to down the ONE is the fact that the PS4 was overtracked. How very scientific.

I'd have waited until after the financials if I was them.

Well in the UK at least the official [non-VGC] word is that PS4 won December and it won Nov+Dec. So given VGC had Xb one winning both months until that news came out AND PS4 was over tracked by 5-600K globally, some of which is bound to be in the UK, then ipso facto Xb one is almost certainly overtracked, in the UK at least; by more than PS4 is over tracked to boot. So there is some science to the Xb one downward adjustment in one market at least, and the 2nd biggest Xb one market for Xb one. And there is at least a bit of logic to conclude that if UK is overtracked for Xb one then the rest of Europe might be too. If there is good evidence that UK accounts for X% of Europe's Xb one sales then a very logical and justified down adjustment in the UK can form the basis of a down adjustment in the rest of Europe.

Based on current VGC numbers Xb one should do about 300K for W/E 27 Dec and 150K for W/E 3 Jan, though it might hold steady for the two weeks given it was the final week of cheap Xb one in the USA. So I think 600K is the max for the remainder of the year. And that would put it at 10.8M at the close of the Dec quarter. Xb one shipments should be pretty close to sell through as MS was probably trying to decrease stock leading in to the price normalisation. So 11.5 shippped LTD is what I would expect, 12M at the absolute outside. Anything over 12M shipped means it's highly probable to be under tracked.

In other news 2014 does not have a 1 million selling week for any console. Which is what I predicted before Black Friday.