I think that 2015-16 will be the worst years for the xbox one considering that the ps4 has a bunch of good exclusives coming out and the fact that third party games are generally better on the ps4.

^what this guy said.

So you think that from Jan-June '15 sales of the X1 will be DOWN from Jan-June '14??? The X1 would have to suffer a MASSIVE dropoff in weekly sales average in order to accomplish that feat... it would probably be historic if it did.

From week ending Jan 11th '14 (first full sales week of 2014) to the week ending June 28 '14 (last full week of June), the X1 sold approx 1,602,485 units according to VGChartz. During this period, Titanfall was the only notable non-PS4 release on X1, and the Kinect-free "price drop" $399 SKU wasn't introduced until June 9th, so the X1 was still selling at $499 for 5+ months with the exception of a short Titanfall bundle promotion.

Since the sales week beginning June 29th to the week ending December 13th, according to VGChartz the X1 has sold approx 5,384,119 units for the 2nd half of '14. Of course this isn't counting 2-1/2 more weeks of holiday sales that will add to the X1's 2014 total, which we can safely assume it will break 6 million units sold for the 2nd half of 2014.

Let's go with the conservative estimate of 6 mil for 2nd half of '14 plus roughly 1,602,485 units sold in the 1st half.... that's 7,602,485 units for the year, only 21% of which were sold in the 1st half of the year. That would mean that the X1 would have to see an average weekly sales dropoff of more than 80% from what is has been averaging the last couple of months in order for it to sell less in the 1st half of '15 than it did in the 1st half of '14, where it was regularly retailing for up to $150 more than it is now and had hardly any major releases, whether exclusive or multiplatform.

Sorry, I just don't see it happening. There's a better chance for the X1 to DOUBLE its 1st half sales next year than for it to sell less than this year's 1st half.

All true, it will probably not sell below last year. It might however suffer a bigger absolute weekly gap to PS4 which will make it relatively a weeker first half than last year.

I don't see it being down YoY, all consoles go up in their second year. But it will drop massively in January.

I think Microsoft will keep the price drop, but they'll remove the free games, so they'll either be making a slight loss on hardware or just breaking even, but they can't afford to keep the free games and low price point for the year, it's just too much of a hit.
Well they can afford it from a financial perspective, but XBox is a business, they want to make money, not keep chucking money at trying to gain market share.

Sales would drop like a stone even if they had one or two exclusives in the first half of 2015, because Sony has so many more, along with games you can't get on XBox One and 3rd party content is preferred by PS4 owners/buyers.
IMO Microsoft will bounce back to level off in the second half of 2015, basically equalling their sales of 2014 or maybe they'll see some growth in July onwards if that's when Quantum Break or Fable Legends drops and obviously Halo 5 comes in the Fall or holiday season, but in the 1st half of 2015 I think sales will nosedive.
Sony will start taking over China next month, that market has already been vocal about preferring PS4 over XBox One and Sony has more games that aren't going to be censored out of even hitting shelves for official retailers.
If Sony markets the hell out of PS4 in China Xbox One will be in trouble over there and PS4 will take market share in China.

I think Microsoft are going to be forced into releasing something early that they perhaps wanted to give more time in development, like Crackdown or Phantom Dust to try and combat Bloodborne and The Order, but both of those have been getting some great marketing of late.
The only game that could really have any kind of impact would be Halo 5, launching that in the 1st half of 2015 may help a bit, but then Microsoft doesn't have anything to combat Uncharted 4 or the possible GT7 release in the second half of 2015 for PS4.

Yeah 2015 is going to be very tough for Microsoft.
Looking at things now I think it's going to be hard for them to even see any growth of sales in 2015 compared to this year. They've played their guns, are sorely unprepared for the year, even if they can announce something new, pulling out a game like they did with FH2, but actually keeping it exclusive to XB1 Sony has so many more games throughout the year and anything Microsoft intended to release in 2016, that they bring forward to release in 2015 is just going to negatively effect their 2016 line-up of AAA content.
Things aren't looking great at all IMO.

XB1 can't compete on game releases in the next 9 months, but I don't expect MS to sit and take it. Expect more price competition. The price is not going to go back up to $399 for long if at all.

Microsoft will keep the price down and might even LOWER it. THEY can afford it.

And don't forget: XBox is just a part of a much bigger strategy. Microsoft knows that consoles days are numbered.

Consoles today are just "appliance PCs" for gaming. Nothing fancy nor rocket science. Anybody can and will come up with similar designs within the next 2-3 years...

... but with TRUE NEXT-GEN hardware. Based on GPUs with on-chip GDDR those "consoles" will run circles even around the PS4.

Microsoft is preparing to move to a (free !!) Windows "XBox-Edition" were they will make money from the build in Game-Store.

It will be a tough battle as this is going to compete with Steam on the PC side and Android on the set-top box side. But Microsoft can't afford loose this like they did on mobile...

What are you talking about? If they can play their cards right, they can win this battle and mobile at the same time!

See bolded responses.