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Forums - Sales - ioi's preliminary Black Friday week estimates (W.E 29th Nov)

tak13 on 01 December 2014
benji232 said:
ioi said:
benji232 said:
Poor performance for wiiU. It's merely up 40% over last year's already very low number. I was expecting a much better black friday this year with Smash bros and MK8 but oh well.


As I say, these are only early numbers and I'm being quite conservative on Nintendo stuff with our scaling factors this year as we were quite high over the holidays in 2013.

Some sources (if their patterns held true across others) could put Wii U closer to 300k and 3DS closer to 400-500k so we will see. As I say, Black Friday is by far the hardest week of the year to estimate for as each data source is showing totally different sales patterns and you need a view of all them all to get the full picture. The more data that comes in the more we can refine until we arrive at a final estimate.

Interesting. I can't wait to see the final estimates. 300k for wiiU would definetly be a much better performance then 200k (a 100%+ increase YoY). I also hope that we'll get some kind of PR statement from Nintendo soon enough about their BF performance. 


WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!Of course 300k in USA would be awesome,to be honest when i saw the preliminary 200k I hoped that in the end would be 300k...!However,you ignored 3DS...400k-500k in USA with the new3ds/xl on the way which of course hurts the sales(anticipation of the new model) in the west would be unbelievable if it is the final number!I would be completely shocked!



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MoHasanie on 01 December 2014

hmm, yeah I could see that being possible. Impressive for both of them. Xbox really sells in the holidays.



    

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tak13 on 01 December 2014
ioi said:
benji232 said:
Poor performance for wiiU. It's merely up 40% over last year's already very low number. I was expecting a much better black friday this year with Smash bros and MK8 but oh well.


As I say, these are only early numbers and I'm being quite conservative on Nintendo stuff with our scaling factors this year as we were quite high over the holidays in 2013.

Some sources (if their patterns held true across others) could put Wii U closer to 300k and 3DS closer to 400-500k so we will see. As I say, Black Friday is by far the hardest week of the year to estimate for as each data source is showing totally different sales patterns and you need a view of all them all to get the full picture. The more data that comes in the more we can refine until we arrive at a final estimate.


You re great ioi!I really love the time you are commenting(recently you re quite active,that's satisfying) and enlightening us!Is this meaning that you were conservative with wii u in the whole November or just in the week of BF?



Ganoncrotch on 01 December 2014
Rafux said:
ioi said:


As I say, these are only early numbers and I'm being quite conservative on Nintendo stuff with our scaling factors this year as we were quite high over the holidays in 2013.

Some sources (if their patterns held true across others) could put Wii U closer to 300k and 3DS closer to 400-500k so we will see. As I say, Black Friday is by far the hardest week of the year to estimate for as each data source is showing totally different sales patterns and you need a view of all them all to get the full picture. The more data that comes in the more we can refine until we arrive at a final estimate.

Hey ioi I just wanted to say thank you and all the crew of vgc for your hard work, love the site.

Aye doesn't get said enough or when it is said it's buried in people complaining at tiny things. Thanks ioi! hope you have a good holiday season planned for yourself.



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BHR-3 on 01 December 2014
mastorbaiter said:
Somethign is really wrong with these numbers.....only a 100 K gap in the US yet worldwide gap is 100k??? Sorry that is hard to believe, x1 really over tracked WW.


yeah im gonna have to agree  not that its a bad thing but i believe the ps4 and xb1 numbers are much higher in the US than 700k and 600k

 

i mean look at the last yr of last gen before the new HW came ou 360 was at 950k in fact it was at that 1M mark for 10 and 2011

 

once its all said and done im gonna go with the high end of iois numbers what man bear pig posted early in this thread with 1.4M and 1.3M

ps4 900k US 500k ROW

XB1 1M 300k ROW



                                                             

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iTechHeads on 01 December 2014

Looks like XB1 won in the US by a big margin. Not totally surprised but disappointed. Sony needs to be a little more aggressive if they want to continue two expand their lead.

These are preliminaries so I'll save any further thoughts for later.



iTechHeads on 01 December 2014
ioi said:

Black Friday is notoriously hard to track as each retailer has different promotions and very different sales patterns to one another - until you have a full set of data you don't have the full picture. I would be surprised if Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo don't all make some kind of press statement about their Black Friday performances later today so I'd hold off for those before making any firm conclusions on who won or anything like that.

From the limited data we have, we're currently estimating for the USA:

XB1 ~ 725k
PS4 ~ 600k
3DS ~ 300k
WiiU ~ 200k

It is always good to look at previous years to get an idea of typical increases / totals:

This doesn't really make sense. How can the XBO gap be 125k in the US but the worldwide gap be only 100k? Either XBO is extremely undertracked in the US or overtracked in EU/RoW.



DJEVOLVE on 01 December 2014
iTechHeads said:
Looks like XB1 won in the US by a big margin. Not totally surprised but disappointed. Sony needs to be a little more aggressive if they want to continue two expand their lead.

These are preliminaries so I'll save any further thoughts for later.


Sony is in the lead already and doesn't have the financial backing to just move a few more units for massive losses. This wouldn't make sense at all. The companies earnings from Playstation where all whipped out just by the cell phone department. So you want them to loss more money, so you can boast?

Sony needs to keep any profit they can at this point, not appeal to Vgchartz numbers.  They are already in the lead, what more do you want?



retroking1981 on 01 December 2014
ioi said:

It is always good to look at previous years to get an idea of typical increases / totals:


Wow, so 360 was the only system last gen to hit 1M in USA BF week. Did not know that.

Even Wii U numbers look 'ok' compared to this historical data, although Wii U isn't doing well in the rest of the World like PS3 was.



RCTjunkie on 01 December 2014

Wii U sales are making me super sad. :(



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