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Forums - Sales - ioi's preliminary Black Friday week estimates (W.E 29th Nov)

binary solo on 01 December 2014
ioi said:

Black Friday is notoriously hard to track as each retailer has different promotions and very different sales patterns to one another - until you have a full set of data you don't have the full picture. I would be surprised if Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo don't all make some kind of press statement about their Black Friday performances later today so I'd hold off for those before making any firm conclusions on who won or anything like that.

From the limited data we have, we're currently estimating for the USA:

XB1 ~ 725k
PS4 ~ 600k
3DS ~ 300k
WiiU ~ 200k

 

Not directly correlatable because infoscout has 360 and PS3 in there, and VGC is the whole week not just BF, but if these proportions roughly hold up Xb one at 51% as estimated by info scout is way off. Without including PS3 and 360 this preliminary estimate (X1, PS4, WiiU) puts Xb one at 47.5%. 360 should be at least 100K, and PS3 possibly 50K. So that would put Xb one at around 43% for the week. 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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generic-user-1 on 01 December 2014

the wii u sales will be mega undertracked in europe..



shogunknight on 01 December 2014
MoHasanie said:
hmm, yeah I could see that being possible. Impressive for both of them. Xbox really sells in the holidays.


With the help of severe price cuts, crazy deals and offerings yes XD. I wonder if they will actually revert to their old price come january



NintendoPie on 01 December 2014
ioi said:


As I say, these are only early numbers and I'm being quite conservative on Nintendo stuff with our scaling factors this year as we were quite high over the holidays in 2013.

Some sources (if their patterns held true across others) could put Wii U closer to 300k and 3DS closer to 400-500k so we will see. As I say, Black Friday is by far the hardest week of the year to estimate for as each data source is showing totally different sales patterns and you need a view of all them all to get the full picture. The more data that comes in the more we can refine until we arrive at a final estimate.

Bolded: In US? I know in MBP's OP you were talking global, but in your post that the person you replied to quoted you were predicting US numbers. I just want to be clear.



generic-user-1 on 01 December 2014
Ka-pi96 said:
generic-user-1 said:
the wii u sales will be mega undertracked in europe..

Based on?


the numbers and the bad trackrecord vgc has in europe, it was smash release in europe so we should see good sales.



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DJEVOLVE on 01 December 2014
generic-user-1 said:
Ka-pi96 said:
generic-user-1 said:
the wii u sales will be mega undertracked in europe..

Based on?


the numbers and the bad trackrecord vgc has in europe, it was smash release in europe so we should see good sales.


So essentially because he said so.

LOL



oldschoolfool on 01 December 2014

It's about even. I'm glad there both doing well. I just know that xbox one's were sold out every place that I went and I've seen ps4's every place that I went.



generic-user-1 on 01 December 2014
DJEVOLVE said:
generic-user-1 said:
Ka-pi96 said:
generic-user-1 said:
the wii u sales will be mega undertracked in europe..

Based on?


the numbers and the bad trackrecord vgc has in europe, it was smash release in europe so we should see good sales.


So essentially because he said so.

LOL


the tracking system in europe is broken, the adjustments are just to high to trust the normal numbers, so why should you trust the early estimates?



Insidb on 01 December 2014

Food for thought (from Amazon): the X1 ACU bundle launched in November, is the the top selling X1 console on the monthly charts (by far), and is #43 on the yearly charts (may mean ~750K sales for the month: hard to figure). That would mean that X1 could have sold about 750K in the US this month and would tie in pretty nicely with ioi's estimate.



iTechHeads on 01 December 2014
DJEVOLVE said:
iTechHeads said:
Looks like XB1 won in the US by a big margin. Not totally surprised but disappointed. Sony needs to be a little more aggressive if they want to continue two expand their lead.

These are preliminaries so I'll save any further thoughts for later.


Sony is in the lead already and doesn't have the financial backing to just move a few more units for massive losses. This wouldn't make sense at all. The companies earnings from Playstation where all whipped out just by the cell phone department. So you want them to loss more money, so you can boast?

Sony needs to keep any profit they can at this point, not appeal to Vgchartz numbers.  They are already in the lead, what more do you want?

They don't need to take massive losses. I'm not asking for them to give away PS4s like Microsoft is doing.

What I'm saying is they need better bundles. Better retailer promotions. Like you said, they already have the lead, so all I am asking is for them to not lose it. Take advantage of it while you still can. If XB1 regains mindshare in the US it will be extremely hard to take it back.