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Forums - Sales Discussion - October 2014 NPD Thread!

Sunset is not a bomb it just that a lot of people had big expectations



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

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TiagoCosta said:
SWORDF1SH said:

We don't know where DC came on the individual sku list. It was mentioned so for all we know it's above SO.

Obviously, I was just using stuff I thought it could be bellow it. That's why I used ????, I thought it was obvious, I guess not. 


To me it sounds like that you're claiming that DC and Bayonetta are overtracked because they weren't in the top 10 individual skus. "Something needs to be ovetracked" didn't quite make sense so I presumed that's what you meant. If you're  finding "stuff" that's above SO, how does that prove that around 100k is to low?



Dark_Feanor said:
Ninsect said:
Dark_Feanor said:
USA is going digital!

Almost 30% drop YoY is massive (even if you count last year Battlefield).

And GTA...


Wasn´t that mid September??

This 20-30% drop was basic every month this year.

We could also add the trade in on last gen games or people playing on PCs and tablets.

Next year will be worst.

GTA was mentioned in the NPD article as part of the reason for the drop. It didn't stop selling after Sept lol



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celador said:

Preseason doesn't matter.  What matters is September, October, November & December.

Hopefully someone pulls through with some actual numbers.  MS PR should be interesting non-existent

They put out their PR yesterday, knowing that there was no good news for them in the October numbers. The SO white bundle was too limited in number to influence total console sales, but it was enough to reduce countrable SO sales to keep those sales low.  Their only good news is having the best Destiny numbers, but even that is subject to how well the Destiny bundle has been selling through October.

Now, my Amazon software thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=193021&page=1#7 has shown that Amazon is quite a poor predictor of precise software ranking, but it's not a bad predictor of what will be in the top 10, with the Amazon October monthly top 100 suggesting the top 10 might look something like this:

1. SSB (I actually overlooked this in my thread for some reason, but it is the top placed game on Amazon for the month)

2.Bayo2

3. Shadow of Mordor

4. NBA2K

5. Borderlands

6. Madden

7. Fifa

8. Minecraft

9. Destiny

10. GTAV

The Evil Within was 11th on the list.

So Amazon predicted 8/10 of the top 10 games, but got the order mostly wrong.

VGC got 9/10 of the top 10 right, and also got some games out of order. So Amazon may be almost as good at predicting the top 10 software, in no particular order, as VGC. A more thorough analysis of Amazon may in fact have been as accurate as VGC, or even get 10/10.

One interesting thing Amazon predicted that VGC did not was that Destiny 360 would outsell Destiny Xb one. But  the highest selling Destiny sku on Amazon was actually the PS4 Destiny white bundle. So that means despite NPD showing Destiny 360 on top, when the PS4 bundle is included the PS4 version will be on top, which is as predicted by VGC.

When you get high selling bundles it does make for odd discrepancies between VGC and NPD.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Just realized, do we have alien overtracked? Especially Driveclub?



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So when's the next bit going to be coming out? I need to keep these IGN commentors happy



tbone51 said:
Just realized, do we have alien overtracked? Especially Driveclub?

We can say nothing about that right now without any numbers. Also, Driveclub was not expected to reach top 10 combined SKUs (neither was SO).



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SWORDF1SH said:
TiagoCosta said:
SWORDF1SH said:

We don't know where DC came on the individual sku list. It was mentioned so for all we know it's above SO.

Obviously, I was just using stuff I thought it could be bellow it. That's why I used ????, I thought it was obvious, I guess not. 


To me it sounds like that you're claiming that DC and Bayonetta are overtracked because they weren't in the top 10 individual skus. "Something needs to be ovetracked" didn't quite make sense so I presumed that's what you meant. If you're  finding "stuff" that's above SO, how does that prove that around 100k is to low?

To make is statement right I said that had to be true, which I don't agree. If he was so right that SO sold 100k at the 9th place something on the top 10 needs to be overtracked right? That's what I said. I tried to conclude by saying that SO selling 100K feels too low, meaning that I feel that is undertracked over here.. Selling what VGC said with bundles and being only 10th, and 9th without bundles, something isn't right.



So, any Nintendo numbers?



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


Oh dear, looks like NBA 2K still has it. Evil Within doing well, excellent timing too with Halloween season. Aliens is a bomb, Sunset sorta bombed, but will need real numbers before saying anything. Smash Bros. 3DS is still doing smashingly well...too bad Smash Bros. Wii U will most likely not chart as high, considering how it has more popular stuff against it, and it's also on a life-support console.

And....I guess Bayonetta 2 became Bombanetta 2 ....