October 2014 NPD Thread!

[binary solo]

celador said:

Preseason doesn't matter.  What matters is September, October, November & December.

Hopefully someone pulls through with some actual numbers.  MS PR should be interesting non-existent

They put out their PR yesterday, knowing that there was no good news for them in the October numbers. The SO white bundle was too limited in number to influence total console sales, but it was enough to reduce countrable SO sales to keep those sales low.  Their only good news is having the best Destiny numbers, but even that is subject to how well the Destiny bundle has been selling through October.

Now, my Amazon software thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=193021&page=1#7 has shown that Amazon is quite a poor predictor of precise software ranking, but it's not a bad predictor of what will be in the top 10, with the Amazon October monthly top 100 suggesting the top 10 might look something like this:

1. SSB (I actually overlooked this in my thread for some reason, but it is the top placed game on Amazon for the month)

2.Bayo2

3. Shadow of Mordor

4. NBA2K

5. Borderlands

6. Madden

7. Fifa

8. Minecraft

9. Destiny

10. GTAV

The Evil Within was 11th on the list.

So Amazon predicted 8/10 of the top 10 games, but got the order mostly wrong.

VGC got 9/10 of the top 10 right, and also got some games out of order. So Amazon may be almost as good at predicting the top 10 software, in no particular order, as VGC. A more thorough analysis of Amazon may in fact have been as accurate as VGC, or even get 10/10.

One interesting thing Amazon predicted that VGC did not was that Destiny 360 would outsell Destiny Xb one. But  the highest selling Destiny sku on Amazon was actually the PS4 Destiny white bundle. So that means despite NPD showing Destiny 360 on top, when the PS4 bundle is included the PS4 version will be on top, which is as predicted by VGC.

When you get high selling bundles it does make for odd discrepancies between VGC and NPD.