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Forums - Sales Discussion - Week 4/6: DONE!!! Prediction: XB1 to outsell WiiU LTD Black Friday

 

Will XB1 Outsell WiiU LTD on Black Friday?

Yes 100 52.08%
 
No 92 47.92%
 
Total:192
TheWPCTraveler on 30 October 2014
Seece said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:

W/E 8th, COD is tracking ahead of PS4 standalone in US, despite the bundle. COD is biggest in US, along with the bundles (which have nout to do with PS4) = BIG week.

W/E 22nd, I just adjusted down my Wii figure as it's US only. I'm sure WiiU will be up YOY, but you have to remember it did 220k in the entire Nov NPD last year. Take that into consideration, because US is the only place that will get a Smash boost that week. GTAV will still help XB1, it's a huge franchise. It'll just do bigger and better on PS4. It's complimented by Dragon Age and Far Cry 4 releases as well that week.

W/E Black Friday - This is an American holiday and WiiU doesn't stand a chance against XB1 in America on Black friday. Not a chance.

Then, if I take into account what you said, won't the Wii U be overtaken on w/e 22/11?

Possibly but I think it'll be black friday, because any miscalculations I've done that could benefit the WiiU will be made up in this week and then some.

Pruning my long-ass quote here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6791709

That said, however, I think you did disregard whatever small effect that Bayonetta 2 had, so I think that margin would rise by 20k. I also expect Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker to boost the Wii U a wee bit further. Also, the later SSB for Wii U release in Japan won't really affect sales much, look at MK8 release week in Japan: sub-20k sales.

However, I seem to have underestimated the impact of the XB1 November lineup, and my bias toward Nintendo may have creeper into what I can take from your figures. So, our biases can even each other out, I guess.



 
I WON A BET AGAINST AZUREN! WOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

:3

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WhiteEaglePL on 30 October 2014

Another seece thread. yay! (sarcasm.)

No I don't think it would happen.

but xbox will pass U around Jan-Feb



Seece on 30 October 2014
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:

W/E 8th, COD is tracking ahead of PS4 standalone in US, despite the bundle. COD is biggest in US, along with the bundles (which have nout to do with PS4) = BIG week.

W/E 22nd, I just adjusted down my Wii figure as it's US only. I'm sure WiiU will be up YOY, but you have to remember it did 220k in the entire Nov NPD last year. Take that into consideration, because US is the only place that will get a Smash boost that week. GTAV will still help XB1, it's a huge franchise. It'll just do bigger and better on PS4. It's complimented by Dragon Age and Far Cry 4 releases as well that week.

W/E Black Friday - This is an American holiday and WiiU doesn't stand a chance against XB1 in America on Black friday. Not a chance.

Then, if I take into account what you said, won't the Wii U be overtaken on w/e 22/11?

Possibly but I think it'll be black friday, because any miscalculations I've done that could benefit the WiiU will be made up in this week and then some.

Pruning my long-ass quote here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6791709

That said, however, I think you did disregard whatever small effect that Bayonetta 2 had, so I think that margin would rise by 20k. I also expect Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker to boost the Wii U a wee bit further. Also, the later SSB for Wii U release in Japan won't really affect sales much, look at MK8 release week in Japan: sub-20k sales.

However, I seem to have underestimated the impact of the XB1 November lineup, and my bias toward Nintendo may have creeper into what I can take from your figures. So, our biases can even each other out, I guess.

Yeah I might go back and factor in a 20k rise for Bayo, or the same rise Hyrule gave anyhow.

Treasure Tracker is December is it not?



 

Seece on 30 October 2014
WhiteEaglePL said:
Another seece thread. yay! (sarcasm.)

No I don't think it would happen.

but xbox will pass U around Jan-Feb

Care to actually debate why? How exactly do you see WiiU selling on par with XB1?



 

Mr_No on 30 October 2014
Ninsect said:
Welfare said:

Shit, I predict that the Wii U won't be above the One any week in November+December. The gap before BF should either be <50k or non-existent.

I'd give Smash week some chance. Is it BF week or after BF or what?

Maybe it will get a big boost that week. Maybe. But everything will be back to normal the next week.



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Neodegenerate on 30 October 2014

I knew this was a Seece thread. The WiiU vs XB1 stuff is giving it away at this point.

Prior to the bundle price drops for XB1 I was saying WiiU had a chance to hold 2nd place until 2015. Now though, that chance is pretty damn slim.



TheWPCTraveler on 30 October 2014
Seece said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

Pruning my long-ass quote here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6791709

That said, however, I think you did disregard whatever small effect that Bayonetta 2 had, so I think that margin would rise by 20k. I also expect Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker to boost the Wii U a wee bit further. Also, the later SSB for Wii U release in Japan won't really affect sales much, look at MK8 release week in Japan: sub-20k sales.

However, I seem to have underestimated the impact of the XB1 November lineup, and my bias toward Nintendo may have creeper into what I can take from your figures. So, our biases can even each other out, I guess.

Yeah I might go back and factor in a 20k rise for Bayo, or the same rise Hyrule gave anyhow.

Treasure Tracker is December is it not?

Ah, double-checked and got 05 December. Good call.

You forgot to take into account Sonic Boom and Watch_Dogs, though, no matter how badly it would fare in the face of SSB for Wii U.



 
I WON A BET AGAINST AZUREN! WOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

:3

Landguy on 30 October 2014
celador said:
Seems likely, although isn't exactly the greatest achievement given Wii U's abysmal sales


Well, when your console has no chance to be #1, you go after the hype of being #2!

 

OT: I agree that the XB1 will surpas the WiiU by years end, but doubt we will be able to confirm any of the Seece's thoughts til the middle of Jan 2015.  If he is right, this thread will come back like a roar...



It is near the end of the end....

flagstaad on 30 October 2014
kowenicki said:

Its impressive how xbox one on amazon is going at the moment... probably why all the amazon threads have dried up. lol

Xbox ONE consoles currently at number 9, 10, 44, 46

PS4 consoles at numbers 11 and 29

WiiU at number 75

I am surprised the Wii U even charts, Amazon does not sells the console directly, all are second hand sellers and distributors.



Mummelmann on 30 October 2014

This is a prediction, we have lots of predictions all the time and have had predictions running since the site opened, it is naturally tied to this being a sales-tracking site for video games.

With that in mind; if anyone disagrees with the prediction, that's fine, no sense in having discussions if everyone agrees, but we don't need any more "Oh, another Seece Nintendo thread" posts in here, it has no bearing on the topic and a prediction should be argued on its merits and content rather than which user puts if forth.

Needless to say; any more posts of this kind will be moderated and considered flaming, and if you miss this public warning; that's really your responsibility for not reading through the topic and only further cements our point.