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Forums - Sales Discussion - Week 4/6: DONE!!! Prediction: XB1 to outsell WiiU LTD Black Friday

 

Will XB1 Outsell WiiU LTD on Black Friday?

Yes 100 52.08%
 
No 92 47.92%
 
Total:192
Ninsect on 30 October 2014
Seece said:
Ninsect said:
Welfare said:

Shit, I predict that the Wii U won't be above the One any week in November+December. The gap before BF should either be <50k or non-existent.

I'd give Smash week some chance. Is it BF week or after BF or what?

Week before, goes up against GTAV, Dragon Age and Far Cry on XB1.

Oh in that case it might not have much of a chance. Might be close though, but only for that one week



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Seece on 30 October 2014
Ninsect said:
Seece said:

Week before, goes up against GTAV, Dragon Age and Far Cry on XB1.

Oh in that case it might not have much of a chance. Might be close though, but only for that one week

I would say it depends on Japan, but doesn't launch there until early December along with Europe, maybe that week WiiU will win as XB1 doesn't have much.



 

Recon1O1 on 30 October 2014

I predicted they'd be in a virtual tie New Years Eve. With the promos and a small adjustment that's at least still possible. If not, no sweat. Amazon is still only what, 6%? So it's an indicator something changed but that's about it. Nov.- Jan. must be ahh... challenging for ioi & co.



Seece on 30 October 2014

Amended OP, based on learning Smash is only releasing in the US in November.



 

teigaga on 30 October 2014
retroking1981 said:
Seece said:
maverick40 said:
What a safe prediction. Must have taken you ages to come up with that?

Considering people are still 50/50 on whether WiiU will overtake XB1 at all?

But yeah it's safe IMO

Still tho, keep on contributing like always.

Where are these so called people? Everytime I check one of these threads it seems to be yourself banging on about the opposite.

I think everyone has accepted this generation will be PS4>XOne>WiiU.

Better head-to-heads would be XOne V NES or 3DS V PSP/GBA.

The people are no longer vocal but are still present in the polls.



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TheWPCTraveler on 30 October 2014
Seece said:

Yup. I don't believe the gap is 1.3m on the front page (though no adjustments have happened yet). I think WiiU was around 7m end of September and believe XB1 needs adjusting up, as 1.55m/1.75m on shelves is too much.

I believe it was 6.1/6.2m end of September. So the gap is around an average of 850k~

Half of Oct 4th, Oct 11th and Oct 18th = 200k for XB1 so gap decreases to 650k~ This is assuming the Wii U and XB1 are accurately tracked on VGC, no? If we go by what you claim: that the XB1 is undertracked, and the Wii U overtracked, that gaps should be even smaller. ~600-620k at this point, if we assume an 850k gap by end-September.

W/E 25th Oct should see another 80k lead from XB1, 570k~ I'll trust you on this one, ~520-540k

W/E 1st is a bit of a hard one, Sunset Overdrive, White bundle sold out (but limited anyway) but more importantly the $349 deal. Since the deal was announced XB1 shot up on Amazon and is outselling PS4 there 2:1. But most of those bundles don't release until the following week (2nd) except one, the regular sku, which rose.

I'm going to guess 50k WiiU vs 180k XB1, that's a 50k rise from Sunset, bundles and the regular sku rising. So 130k gains, 440k~ I expect Wii U rising this week, slightly further. ~390-420k

W/E 8th is going to be mental. All those XB1 bundles you see in the top 50 on Amazon (COD and AC being top 10, regular, AC Kinect being top 50) will release the first day of the tracking period, then 2 days later Call of Duty releases.

75k WiiU Vs 300k+ XB1, at least a 225k gap. 215k~ I'll play it safe and give a range that I expect if I go by what you say, since I'm not experienced with what happens to XBoxes. Won't there be more impact on PS4, though? ~180-220k

W/E 15th. Assassins Creed, HALO MCC along with continued bundles. WiiU around 90k (continues to be up YOY) and XB1 250k, 55k~ Halo:MCC drops? Not gonna doubt these figures, but some Wii U bundles will release on this day, which may put Wii U past 100k. ~30k-70k

W/E 22nd. This is a very tricky week. Smash Bros WiiU releases which is sure to give it a huge boost. GTAV also releases, but that is being advertised on PS4. I'm willing to bet WiiU could win this week with a huge boost, 250k WiiU (MK was 140k) Vs 230k XB1. 75k~ SSB is big. I expect Wii U to sell at least a quarter million here. Bundles here and there, after all. Also, won't the impact GTA V has be slightly mitigated by both the PS4 release and the fact that it's available on last-gen? ~60-90k

W/E Black Friday - XB1 will go bananas in America = 75k remaining gap demolished. It won't be broken this week, 50% chance. Who says Nintendo isn't capable of dropping the price as well, and throw a couple bundles our way?  You may as well factor what the PS4 can do here, too.

Comments in italics.



 
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retroking1981 on 30 October 2014

Didn't realise there was so many disillusioned members on here.

Wii U has zero chance of outselling XOne LT, best case scenario would be GCN like numbers and a small profit both of which are unlikely imo.

If I had to do rough estimates I'd go with; PS4 110m, XOne 60m, Wii U 17.5m. I think the order is set in stone, only the finer details are debatable.



Anfebious on 30 October 2014

3/10

What a lame prediction. I was expecting something bolder.



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

Seece on 30 October 2014
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:

Yup. I don't believe the gap is 1.3m on the front page (though no adjustments have happened yet). I think WiiU was around 7m end of September and believe XB1 needs adjusting up, as 1.55m/1.75m on shelves is too much.

I believe it was 6.1/6.2m end of September. So the gap is around an average of 850k~

Half of Oct 4th, Oct 11th and Oct 18th = 200k for XB1 so gap decreases to 650k~ This is assuming the Wii U and XB1 are accurately tracked on VGC, no? If we go by what you claim: that the XB1 is undertracked, and the Wii U overtracked, that gaps should be even smaller. ~600-620k at this point, if we assume an 850k gap by end-September.

W/E 25th Oct should see another 80k lead from XB1, 570k~ I'll trust you on this one, ~520-540k

W/E 1st is a bit of a hard one, Sunset Overdrive, White bundle sold out (but limited anyway) but more importantly the $349 deal. Since the deal was announced XB1 shot up on Amazon and is outselling PS4 there 2:1. But most of those bundles don't release until the following week (2nd) except one, the regular sku, which rose.

I'm going to guess 50k WiiU vs 180k XB1, that's a 50k rise from Sunset, bundles and the regular sku rising. So 130k gains, 440k~ I expect Wii U rising this week, slightly further. ~390-420k

W/E 8th is going to be mental. All those XB1 bundles you see in the top 50 on Amazon (COD and AC being top 10, regular, AC Kinect being top 50) will release the first day of the tracking period, then 2 days later Call of Duty releases.

75k WiiU Vs 300k+ XB1, at least a 225k gap. 215k~ I'll play it safe and give a range that I expect if I go by what you say, since I'm not experienced with what happens to XBoxes. Won't there be more impact on PS4, though? ~180-220k

W/E 15th. Assassins Creed, HALO MCC along with continued bundles. WiiU around 90k (continues to be up YOY) and XB1 250k, 55k~ Halo:MCC drops? Not gonna doubt these figures, but some Wii U bundles will release on this day, which may put Wii U past 100k. ~30k-70k

W/E 22nd. This is a very tricky week. Smash Bros WiiU releases which is sure to give it a huge boost. GTAV also releases, but that is being advertised on PS4. I'm willing to bet WiiU could win this week with a huge boost, 250k WiiU (MK was 140k) Vs 230k XB1. 75k~ SSB is big. I expect Wii U to sell at least a quarter million here. Bundles here and there, after all. Also, won't the impact GTA V has be slightly mitigated by both the PS4 release and the fact that it's available on last-gen? ~60-90k

W/E Black Friday - XB1 will go bananas in America = 75k remaining gap demolished. It won't be broken this week, 50% chance. Who says Nintendo isn't capable of dropping the price as well, and throw a couple bundles our way?  You may as well factor what the PS4 can do here, too.

Comments in italics.

W/E 8th, COD is tracking ahead of PS4 standalone in US, despite the bundle. COD is biggest in US, along with the bundles (which have nout to do with PS4) = BIG week.

W/E 22nd, I just adjusted down my Wii figure as it's US only. I'm sure WiiU will be up YOY, but you have to remember it did 220k in the entire Nov NPD last year. Take that into consideration, because US is the only place that will get a Smash boost that week. GTAV will still help XB1, it's a huge franchise. It'll just do bigger and better on PS4. It's complimented by Dragon Age and Far Cry 4 releases as well that week.

W/E Black Friday - This is an American holiday and WiiU doesn't stand a chance against XB1 in America on Black friday. Not a chance.



 

ShootdaFrog on 30 October 2014
kowenicki said:

Its impressive how xbox one on amazon is going at the moment... probably why all the amazon threads have dried up. lol

Xbox ONE consoles currently at number 9, 10, 44, 46

PS4 consoles at numbers 11 and 29

WiiU at number 75


Same reason you have been absent from all NPD and sales threads all year?? x1 has 1 24 hour period after being bascially 100 bucks cheaper and here you are brining it up over and over...Despite the fact ps4 will continue to own x1 even in the US in the long run..,..... MS had to go cheaper again to MAYBE eek out a small win 1 month, have fun whjile it loasts, ps4 will still be ahead everywhere with an even bigger gap come 2015, then x1 sales tank.

 

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