Seece said:
Yup. I don't believe the gap is 1.3m on the front page (though no adjustments have happened yet). I think WiiU was around 7m end of September and believe XB1 needs adjusting up, as 1.55m/1.75m on shelves is too much.
I believe it was 6.1/6.2m end of September. So the gap is around an average of 850k~
Half of Oct 4th, Oct 11th and Oct 18th = 200k for XB1 so gap decreases to 650k~ This is assuming the Wii U and XB1 are accurately tracked on VGC, no? If we go by what you claim: that the XB1 is undertracked, and the Wii U overtracked, that gaps should be even smaller. ~600-620k at this point, if we assume an 850k gap by end-September.
W/E 25th Oct should see another 80k lead from XB1, 570k~ I'll trust you on this one, ~520-540k
W/E 1st is a bit of a hard one, Sunset Overdrive, White bundle sold out (but limited anyway) but more importantly the $349 deal. Since the deal was announced XB1 shot up on Amazon and is outselling PS4 there 2:1. But most of those bundles don't release until the following week (2nd) except one, the regular sku, which rose.
I'm going to guess 50k WiiU vs 180k XB1, that's a 50k rise from Sunset, bundles and the regular sku rising. So 130k gains, 440k~ I expect Wii U rising this week, slightly further. ~390-420k
W/E 8th is going to be mental. All those XB1 bundles you see in the top 50 on Amazon (COD and AC being top 10, regular, AC Kinect being top 50) will release the first day of the tracking period, then 2 days later Call of Duty releases.
75k WiiU Vs 300k+ XB1, at least a 225k gap. 215k~ I'll play it safe and give a range that I expect if I go by what you say, since I'm not experienced with what happens to XBoxes. Won't there be more impact on PS4, though? ~180-220k
W/E 15th. Assassins Creed, HALO MCC along with continued bundles. WiiU around 90k (continues to be up YOY) and XB1 250k, 55k~ Halo:MCC drops? Not gonna doubt these figures, but some Wii U bundles will release on this day, which may put Wii U past 100k. ~30k-70k
W/E 22nd. This is a very tricky week. Smash Bros WiiU releases which is sure to give it a huge boost. GTAV also releases, but that is being advertised on PS4. I'm willing to bet WiiU could win this week with a huge boost, 250k WiiU (MK was 140k) Vs 230k XB1. 75k~ SSB is big. I expect Wii U to sell at least a quarter million here. Bundles here and there, after all. Also, won't the impact GTA V has be slightly mitigated by both the PS4 release and the fact that it's available on last-gen? ~60-90k
W/E Black Friday - XB1 will go bananas in America = 75k remaining gap demolished. It won't be broken this week, 50% chance. Who says Nintendo isn't capable of dropping the price as well, and throw a couple bundles our way? You may as well factor what the PS4 can do here, too.
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