Definitely not.

I think even the DS was looking sub 100m until Nintendo founds its USP with games like Nintendogs and brain age. Like my sister owned a DS simply for brain training and a driving instructor game, anything else she own was just an impulse purchase. Now it sounds crazy to own a dedicated handheld for what essentially boils down to 2 apps you'll probably find for free on the app store lol.

As much as I want it to make 100 million, it is looking unlikely. The only way i see it happen is that the new 3ds takes off and Nintendo makes a mega hit software like a new wii sports, wii fit and minecraft (games that create a phonemonom).

You would be mistaken then, take it from someone who has been a vocal member of the relatively small "smart devices will harm dedicated handhelds" group a very long time; people had bonkers expectations for the 3DS and to some, it was absurd to think it wouldn't improve upon the DS in every way, including sales. It was very far into its life before people accepted that this wasn't going to happen, there were threads showing it tracking above this and that, pretty much like the Wii and PS4.

Trust me; as someone who has been very vocal about the effect of smart devices on dedicated handhelds for many years, the community was strongly opposed to this idea. I've been repeating myself again and again since at least early 2011 on the subject and more and more users have started seeing it the same way over the years, as the charts and overall market reports show that it is undeniably so. To most, the "foreseeable steady march" of mobile devices and its effects on other markets has been foreseeable only in hindsight, a quick search through older threads will reveal as much.

Here is one example from about a year back, very few are in the 130 million spot but you'll note that the vast majority of posters are banking on at least 100 million, which the OP is now calling a bold prediction, doesn't that tell us something about people's inability to see the effect of the smart device on the dedicated handheld market?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=171809

You may also note that the poll with about 330 votes says that 35% believe the 3DS will actually outsell the DS.

In this thread, there are only 9 uses who suggest lifetime sales below 100 million (me being one of the lowest of them all) and 31 users suggesting over 100 million, with 8 users suggesting 130 million or more. Again, this thread is also only about a year old, a lot has changed for all to see but there were those who saw it a lot earlier.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167730&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5640421

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5640433

As you can see in the above single posts of mine; I have been a lot more grounded than most and I have been questioned the whole way on my "lowballing" of the 3DS in here.

Here's an example of the line of reasoning many have resorted to over the years: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3886737

The 3DS would sell amazingly simply because there is historical precedent for generations growing every time, or at least not shrinking. People simply don't understand the modern market and what drives it. There was certainly a time where expecting 130 million sales for the 3DS was considered reasonable or even a given. Some migh say "but now we have more evidence pointing towards less lifetime sales than that", and to that I would simply respond; the evidende was there along if one was willing to see it.

OT: It goes without saying; I do not believe that the 3DS will sell 100 million units lifetime.

I guess I was the odd one out then. While I did expect higher numbers from 3DS than it will likely get, a downturn as cheap mobile gaming expanded always seemed logical and foreseeable.

Absolutely agreed. In many cases, it is also more not wanting to realize something than about not actually realizing it. Not unlike people who attack consoles that are beating their favorite, I think it is a built-in fear of one form of gaming "killing" your preferred form of gaming. I should know; I've had the same irrational sense myself in the early Wii days, imagining that most developer effort would go into cheap cash-in copies of Wii Sports and the like (on the whole, the direction it has taken isn't exactly much better, but that's a whole different subject).

Mobile gaming is the main reason why the gaming industry will effectively have doubled the turnover in about one decade (2005-2015), a lot more so than the majorly successful 7th generation of consoles. I am still unsure of mobile gaming's position in the future of gaming though; it cannot continue for all eternity in its current form though, with some few making insane loads of cash and most getting rubble and dust for their efforts.

70M is what I predict for 3DS.

That I can definiely relate too; I confess, the overriding focus on story and graphics in modern AAA titles and the current state of mobile gaming have caused me a great deal of concern.

3DS is fast approaching its 4th birthday and 50 million units sold. Its heydays are behind it and it have already probably peaked, so from now on it's a steady down hill from here - even with the N3DS on its way.

You crazy, fool!