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curl-6 on 27 October 2014
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Mummelmann said:
curl-6 said:
DietSoap said:
at one point anything below 130 million would've been seen as way too conservative.

I don't think that was ever the case.

Even at the height of the DS's reign, the steady march of mobile devices was foreseeable.


You would be mistaken then, take it from someone who has been a vocal member of the relatively small "smart devices will harm dedicated handhelds" group a very long time; people had bonkers expectations for the 3DS and to some, it was absurd to think it wouldn't improve upon the DS in every way, including sales. It was very far into its life before people accepted that this wasn't going to happen, there were threads showing it tracking above this and that, pretty much like the Wii and PS4.

Trust me; as someone who has been very vocal about the effect of smart devices on dedicated handhelds for many years, the community was strongly opposed to this idea. I've been repeating myself again and again since at least early 2011 on the subject and more and more users have started seeing it the same way over the years, as the charts and overall market reports show that it is undeniably so.

Here is one example from about a year back, very few are in the 130 million spot but you'll note that the vast majority of posters are banking on at least 100 million, which the OP is now calling a bold prediction, doesn't that tell us something about people's inability to see the effect of the smart device on the dedicated handheld market?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=171809

You may also note that the poll with about 330 votes says that 35% believe the 3DS will actually outsell the DS.

In this thread, there are only 9 uses who suggest lifetime sales below 100 million (me being one of the lowest of them all) and 31 users suggesting over 100 million, with 8 users suggesting 130 million or more. Again, this thread is also only about a year old, a lot has changed for all to see but there were those who saw it a lot earlier.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167730&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5640421

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5640433

As you can see in the above single posts of mine; I have been a lot more grounded than most and I have been questioned the whole way on my "lowballing" of the 3DS in here.

Here's an example of the line of reasoning many have resorted to over the years: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3886737

The 3DS would sell amazingly simply because there is historical precedent for generations growing every time, or at least not shrinking. People simply don't understand the modern market and what drives it. There was certainly a time where expecting 130 million sales for the 3DS was considered reasonable or even a given. Some migh say "but now we have more evidence pointing towards less lifetime sales than that", and to that I would simply respond; the evidende was there along if one was willing to see it.

OT: It goes without saying; I do not believe that the 3DS will sell 100 million units lifetime.

I guess I was the odd one out then. While I did expect higher numbers from 3DS than it will likely get, a downturn as cheap mobile gaming expanded always seemed logical and foreseeable.