tbone51 said:
if 82mil is high, then look at everybody else's numbers! You have the lowest lol |
Yes, I'm one of those loonies that believe that market segregation and partitioning, especially in the mobile/tablet direction, will cause the classic and dedicated handheld market to collapse within reasonable time (3-5 years at the most).
It is already very clear that the Vita/3DS won't come anywhere near the 220 million + installed base of the PSP/DS so we can already see the market having its rug swept from underneath its feet. I also believe that the 8th gen of home consoles will be a historical first; it will move less hardware than the previous one, due to much the same as the handheld markets downwards trend, there is just no way that the PS4/Xbone/Wii U combo will sell 300 million or more.
I also expect software sales on the home console market to take a plunge for the 8th gen, gaming has assumed too many forms for all to be as profitable as they would be with less options available.
My 3DS prediction will stand and I have the outmost faith that it will be a lot closer to home that any of the others in here at this point. I simply cannot fathom those who make lofty 130 million + predictions for this machine. I thought the Wii might have taught us to apply more than past trends and hope and dreams when making predictions. Predicting is about the future, not the past.
The market is changing, pulling in several directions and will have more participants than ever before and the viable public to purchase these services and machines just isn't big enough to case tremors in all sectors (or, indeed, any of them). Market leeching will occurr and no dedicated console is likely to ever sell anywhere near DS and PS2 levels or dominate the market in the same way.
