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Forums - Sales - Bold Prediction: SSB.U Won't do much for Wii U.

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oniyide said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

There are two problems with your assertion. First, we will never be able to truly measure the effect that the 3DS version has on the Wii U version because there are way too many variables, and we have no control case. Second, I know for a fact that the 3DS version must have a detrimental effect on the Wii U version, simply by existing. 

Clearly, the 3DS version was planned during a time where Nintendo was more worried about the 3DS then the Wii U, and with good reason. Problem is they didn't realize what made the Wii succesful and have so far failed to replicate it.

So while it is false to say that Smash 4 won't help the Wii U, we can also say with certainty that it cannot help the Wii U as much as it could if it didn't have to deal with the 3DS version. Even though there is no way to isolate the Smash boost from the Holiday boost.


Ive seen this theory alot but let me try to come with another. 3ds is a detriment? i would say it doesnt effect it that much. Why? There is NO gaurantee that if the 3ds version didnt exist that those people who are buying the portable one would buy a Wii U for Smash. If you didnt care to buy a WIi U for Smash then it doesnt matter if there is another version out there or not. I think some of you guys were giving too much stock to that series. Lets not let Brawl numbers fool you, it wasnt going to do anyhwere near those numbers. Matter of fact i would argue that since 3ds is a system people are actually buying anyway(moreso than WiiU) then Ninty could sell a game to an bigger base of people who most likely werent going to get the WIi U anyway. Hell if theny really like it they might be inticed to buy a Wii U and Smash. if not Ninty sold a game they woulnd have anyway.

Yes we could argue that Smash being on 3ds hurts WIi U cause people will just settle. We could argue against it too. But from a software standpoint this is smart move, no way one can say taht Smash WIi U exclusive would sell better than Smash 3ds/WIiU combined.

The degree with which the 3DS version harms the Wii U version is only speculation, and cannot be known cause we don't have a case where it doesn't exist to compare it to.

Furthermore, I have already stated that this benefits the games software totals as opposed to benefiting the Wii U. But this is thread is about the game helping sell the Wii U, not selling copies on its own. And the answer is, not as much as it couldv'e if it had no 3DS version.

The very existence of a 3DS version means that the system selling ability of this game is being spread across 2 platforms. It means that at least one person will have the 3DS version and not buy the Wii U version, for whatever reason, and that costs the Wii U a sale.

Cleary, Nintendo is still more worried about the 3DS then the Wii U, seeing as how the 3DS version conflicts with the Software sells Hardware mentality of Nintendo when considering how they are treating the Wii U.

Not to mention, they can't afford to be spreading exclusives when their year lead's been evaporated and their 3rd party support is barren.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

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Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
oniyide said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

There are two problems with your assertion. First, we will never be able to truly measure the effect that the 3DS version has on the Wii U version because there are way too many variables, and we have no control case. Second, I know for a fact that the 3DS version must have a detrimental effect on the Wii U version, simply by existing. 

Clearly, the 3DS version was planned during a time where Nintendo was more worried about the 3DS then the Wii U, and with good reason. Problem is they didn't realize what made the Wii succesful and have so far failed to replicate it.

So while it is false to say that Smash 4 won't help the Wii U, we can also say with certainty that it cannot help the Wii U as much as it could if it didn't have to deal with the 3DS version. Even though there is no way to isolate the Smash boost from the Holiday boost.


Ive seen this theory alot but let me try to come with another. 3ds is a detriment? i would say it doesnt effect it that much. Why? There is NO gaurantee that if the 3ds version didnt exist that those people who are buying the portable one would buy a Wii U for Smash. If you didnt care to buy a WIi U for Smash then it doesnt matter if there is another version out there or not. I think some of you guys were giving too much stock to that series. Lets not let Brawl numbers fool you, it wasnt going to do anyhwere near those numbers. Matter of fact i would argue that since 3ds is a system people are actually buying anyway(moreso than WiiU) then Ninty could sell a game to an bigger base of people who most likely werent going to get the WIi U anyway. Hell if theny really like it they might be inticed to buy a Wii U and Smash. if not Ninty sold a game they woulnd have anyway.

Yes we could argue that Smash being on 3ds hurts WIi U cause people will just settle. We could argue against it too. But from a software standpoint this is smart move, no way one can say taht Smash WIi U exclusive would sell better than Smash 3ds/WIiU combined.

The degree with which the 3DS version harms the Wii U version is only speculation, and cannot be known cause we don't have a case where it doesn't exist to compare it to.

Furthermore, I have already stated that this benefits the games software totals as opposed to benefiting the Wii U. But this is thread is about the game helping sell the Wii U, not selling copies on its own. And the answer is, not as much as it couldv'e if it had no 3DS version.

The very existence of a 3DS version means that the system selling ability of this game is being spread across 2 platforms. It means that at least one person will have the 3DS version and not buy the Wii U version, for whatever reason, and that costs the Wii U a sale.

Cleary, Nintendo is still more worried about the 3DS then the Wii U, seeing as how the 3DS version conflicts with the Software sells Hardware mentality of Nintendo when considering how they are treating the Wii U.

Not to mention, they can't afford to be spreading exclusives when their year lead's been evaporated and their 3rd party support is barren.


but thats the thing. Maybe Ninty has giving up on that whole software sells hardware metality when it comes to WiiU. Maybe theyve accepted the fact that the WIi U is going to do GC numbers or worse and thats where the treatment of the system is stemmng from.

If you have a 3ds AND a Wii U then why would one buy the 3ds version ONLY? that really makes no sense and thats kind of the rub. Truth is you dont really have any gaurentee that that person who bought Smash for 3ds would have bought an entirely new system for another Smash game. If one was that big of a fan in the first place they would have already bought a Wii U in anticipation or will buy one when that version comes out regardless if there is a 3ds version, especially if the 3ds version is worse. And if you were never that big a fan in the first place then you wasnt buying a Wii U for that game anyway.



oniyide said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
oniyide said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

There are two problems with your assertion. First, we will never be able to truly measure the effect that the 3DS version has on the Wii U version because there are way too many variables, and we have no control case. Second, I know for a fact that the 3DS version must have a detrimental effect on the Wii U version, simply by existing. 

Clearly, the 3DS version was planned during a time where Nintendo was more worried about the 3DS then the Wii U, and with good reason. Problem is they didn't realize what made the Wii succesful and have so far failed to replicate it.

So while it is false to say that Smash 4 won't help the Wii U, we can also say with certainty that it cannot help the Wii U as much as it could if it didn't have to deal with the 3DS version. Even though there is no way to isolate the Smash boost from the Holiday boost.


Ive seen this theory alot but let me try to come with another. 3ds is a detriment? i would say it doesnt effect it that much. Why? There is NO gaurantee that if the 3ds version didnt exist that those people who are buying the portable one would buy a Wii U for Smash. If you didnt care to buy a WIi U for Smash then it doesnt matter if there is another version out there or not. I think some of you guys were giving too much stock to that series. Lets not let Brawl numbers fool you, it wasnt going to do anyhwere near those numbers. Matter of fact i would argue that since 3ds is a system people are actually buying anyway(moreso than WiiU) then Ninty could sell a game to an bigger base of people who most likely werent going to get the WIi U anyway. Hell if theny really like it they might be inticed to buy a Wii U and Smash. if not Ninty sold a game they woulnd have anyway.

Yes we could argue that Smash being on 3ds hurts WIi U cause people will just settle. We could argue against it too. But from a software standpoint this is smart move, no way one can say taht Smash WIi U exclusive would sell better than Smash 3ds/WIiU combined.

The degree with which the 3DS version harms the Wii U version is only speculation, and cannot be known cause we don't have a case where it doesn't exist to compare it to.

Furthermore, I have already stated that this benefits the games software totals as opposed to benefiting the Wii U. But this is thread is about the game helping sell the Wii U, not selling copies on its own. And the answer is, not as much as it couldv'e if it had no 3DS version.

The very existence of a 3DS version means that the system selling ability of this game is being spread across 2 platforms. It means that at least one person will have the 3DS version and not buy the Wii U version, for whatever reason, and that costs the Wii U a sale.

Cleary, Nintendo is still more worried about the 3DS then the Wii U, seeing as how the 3DS version conflicts with the Software sells Hardware mentality of Nintendo when considering how they are treating the Wii U.

Not to mention, they can't afford to be spreading exclusives when their year lead's been evaporated and their 3rd party support is barren.


but thats the thing. Maybe Ninty has giving up on that whole software sells hardware metality when it comes to WiiU. Maybe theyve accepted the fact that the WIi U is going to do GC numbers or worse and thats where the treatment of the system is stemmng from.

If you have a 3ds AND a Wii U then why would one buy the 3ds version ONLY? that really makes no sense and thats kind of the rub. Truth is you dont really have any gaurentee that that person who bought Smash for 3ds would have bought an entirely new system for another Smash game. If one was that big of a fan in the first place they would have already bought a Wii U in anticipation or will buy one when that version comes out regardless if there is a 3ds version, especially if the 3ds version is worse. And if you were never that big a fan in the first place then you wasnt buying a Wii U for that game anyway.

Thing is that's beyond the scope of the OP. From the POV of helping the Wii U it is suboptimal, and while it will increase the softwares overall sales and boost 3DS, it doesn't make sense from a big picture point of view because the Wii U is in greatest need of help and increasing the base before the console has peaked ensures the most sales of software in total. Assuming they still care to support it.

This lends cresedence to the idea that Nintendo has given up on the Wii U, or at the very least can't adequatly support these two platforms.

Nintendo is in a really really terrible position right now.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

fatslob-:O said:
Chris Hu said:


MK is a lot more popular then Smash Brother of course the franchise is more well established since it goes back to the SNES.

A lot more popular is stretching it since the only oddball out of the whole franchise is MK WII plus Smash bros was more popular on GC than MK was on the GC. 


Ok just more popular then but even without the bundles Mario Kart Wii sold a ton.



Amiibo is the wildcard here



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I disagree with this so badly. Okay MK is a more popular series blah blah blah. But the thing about Mario Kart 8 is that it already feeds the audience that mostly already own a Wii U (Nintendo fanboys and Little Kids). Although grown ups do play MK8, they are more bound to want to play SSB due to its retro characters and violent nature (sure there's violence in MK8, but it's not your typical punch, kick, slash, blast, and maul).

Also ppl make the mistake that the audience for Mario Kart is the same for SSM. Completely untrue! Sure you have Nintendo fanboys that will gobble all things Nintendo, but because they are BOTH different Genres of games, they both attract a different audience (one is racing and one is fighting). Just because people like Mega Man didn't mean they all like Street Fighter games (one is Action Platformer and the other is Fighting).

Plus MK8 came out in the end of Spring? That is hardly the beginning of the Holiday season. People don't understand that MK8 will have legs (like it's always have) especially during the Holiday season, and again will move consoles away during Christmas. So you are telling me that, a Nintendo system, now with BOTH MK8 and SSBWiiU available, WILL NOT MOVE CONSOLES DURING THE BUSIEST SHOPPING PERIOD OF THE YEAR (does this even sound right??).

Also, everyone that has played SSB3DS knows that this is the ultimate appetizer for the main coarse. The 3DS version looks AND feels like the game for casual gamers, which is STILL GREAT! But the complete, Hardcore, better controls and better graphics version will be available for the Wii U. And many are already  falling in love with the 3ds verison (Japan everyone)? To say that a game that has sold over 1.3million copies (and counting!) in three weeks only, and that people are going crazy for will not move consoles in a more superior and revamped version with more options added to it, and also in a country that Nintendo is DOMINATING sounds just plain ignorant to me (and we still don't have NA and Euro numbers yet <_<).

Plus the hype for this game makes MK8's hype look like it was being developed by an Indie company. Leaked photos and videos, Screenshots and videos for the past 2 years, fans and forums predicting characters everywhere, Retro character fan wishes finally being fulfilled, it being labelled the "Wii U Savior", plus add Amiibo to the mix, and you have the stage set up for probably the 2nd biggest hyped game of the year!!

And to add the Cherry on top, I am ALREADY seeing what I am talking about before my eyes. I have 3 OLDER friends (ages 24+), that are just COUNTING DOWN THE HOURS till Smash GET THE RELEASE DATE because they were waiting 2 years for it to finally be announced. They will buy a Wii U because of this game alone... Hell 2 bought a 3DS JUST TO PLAY THE HANDHELD VERSION. They both said this only made them want the Wii U verison more... 2 of them have PS4s and one still games 7th generation. A small sample I know, but I can't be the only person in the world who knows people like this.

Nintendo fans are just getting over pessimistic nowadays. You guys should stop, you are only feeding the hate and making the beast fatter ...



SSBU a 1st party obscure title, ok.

Anyway, you can be ritgh about graphics, but the problem with the 3DS version of the game goes beyond that. First of all, there are some problems with local multiplayer that wiiu will fix easily, like the need to have 2 copies and 2 systems, some lag, the tiny screen. Surprisingly, the local experience is fundamental for casual players. Second, is the control scheme, that is ok for casuals, but not so much for serious players. The support of the GC controller will be a work around it too. Third, amiibo will problably help in this regard, if bundled.

But i'm curious about one thing: what is "much" for OP? more than PS4(what we all know, even nintendo themselves, is impossible)? as much as PS4? as much as X1? 70% of PS4? 50% of PS4? when you put "much" in your setence, there will always a way to say later: look, i was rigth, it's less than it could be, ha. give some parameter and then we can say if it bold or not.



"Hardware design isn’t about making the most powerful thing you can.
Today most hardware design is left to other companies, but when you make hardware without taking into account the needs of the eventual software developers, you end up with bloated hardware full of pointless excess. From the outset one must consider design from both a hardware and software perspective."

Gunpei Yoko

...Nha, will be second best sistem seller for Wii U.
I expect some like 100% boost for Wii U the week of 22 November (if the data is correct), and some like 2 million Wii U only on December.



fluky-nintendy said:

I know this is an odd statement to be made because most Nintendo fans here are expecting this game to be the hottest release later this year on WiiU, but I'm here to cut the chase.

 

The facts:

MK8

WiiU numbers the week MK8 releases: 6,290,343

WiiU numbers today: 7,258,201


 

 

Regardless, the MK8 has to be credited to SOME extent for the fact that in around half a year's time, Wii U has sold around 1 million units. Did it have the IMEDIATE megaton impact many of us thought it might? No. And that does suck. But Wii U sales have been very funky most of the time anyway. If you stop to consider the 2013 that Wii U had, and that MK8 is a highly regarded game that has sold around 3 million at least by now (physical, not even counting digital), yes, I'd have to say that helping to push it to another million is pretty good overall.

Beyond that, MK8 isn't done selling, for sure, and I do think there will be another MK8 "holiday boost", as in it will help the system with at least one last major blip before totally leveling off. As for Smash Bros.? I STILL think the 3DS version was a major mistake on Nintendo's part, if there had only been a Wii U version, then there would only be HYPE for the Wii U version, and all the time and resources could have gone to just the Wii U version, and nothing would have had to be cut because of silly 3DS limitations, etc. etc. etc. I DO think that SB Wii U will sell better than some expect, a few million over it's LT, but I think that the release of the 3DS version, especially BEFORE the Wii U version, will to some degree sabatoge the Wii U game's sales.

When you stop to consider that SB Wii U is THE major release of the holidays for Wii U, it just stands to reason that if the Wii U game were the only version to exist, the hype for it would be far bigger than it is. It doesn't help that the 3DS version has much the same content, and all the characters and many of the trophies, etc., will have been already been "spoiled" long before the Wii U version arrives. I am sure (HOPE) that the Wii U version is going to have plenty of it's own exclusive content, beyond just different stages, and I REALLY hope it has a sizeable and worthwhile Adventure Mode. But the fact cannot be argue that the 3DS version's existence, at least on SOME level, is going to be a detriment to the Wii U game.

Having said all that, yes, I do still think SB Wii U (god DAMN it needs a real title), will sell well, and will help give Wii U a sizeable boost. If Nintendo was smart, along with STEPPING UP THE GODDAMN ADVERTISING, they'd also have a bundle/combo deal, where people could get a Wii U with MK8 and SB still for $300. Make it limited time, whatever you want, but I think that kind of deal would intice many on the fence gamers to buy the system.

I still think Wii U has a very solid chance to at least reach/surpass 8 million by the end of the year. It would be nice to be surprised and see it get an explosion and hit 9 million or more, but I would also be a bit surprised if it didn't at LEAST hit 8 mil. by the end of December.



NobleTeam360 said:
I don't think it's going to do much for Wii U either. Game will sell well, but it's not like it's going to boost the Wii above the PS4 or even XBO


As someone else intimated, selling better than PS4 should not be the goal post for Wii U to get a "successful boost" from SB. Selling well in it's own right, and hitting/surpassing that 8 million milestone, or better, that is the benchmark that matters. Do I think Wii U at least has a chance to outsell Xbone in Nov./Dec.? Yes, I do. But I won't say it WILL, we'll have to wait and see.