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Forums - Sales Discussion - I've a good way to estimate digital sales on consoles!

baloofarsan on 05 October 2014

Xbox One software attach ratio down compared to 360, EA claims: http://www.mcvuk.com/index.php/news/read/xbox-one-software-attach-ratio-down-compared-to-360-ea-claims/0127354

“Certainly, Sony has done well with the PS4 – when you compare it to the first two months of their launch on the PS3, they're up to 2.1 versus 1.9. Microsoft is a little down, the 2.6 attach on Xbox One versus Xbox 360."

 

EDIT: Ooops! This was not about downloads.



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Turkish on 05 October 2014
Kerotan said:

Came across this ages ago but only signed up recently so never got to say it. 

You can look that numbers up but a few months back Minecraft announced how many digital copies they'd sold on the PS3 store. It sounded like a lot so I went onto the site and checked the number of ratings it had. It worked out that for every 50 people that bought it (roughly) 1 of them rated it. 

This is only 1 game but if you matched up officail numbers for known games and checked their ratings I'm sure we could find a god average. 

The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game. 

Destiny PS4 has around 6k ratings I think so that prob has a good 300k digital copies sold. 


That's a good way, but don't forget that there are different PSN store regions with different ratings as well. I don't expect the ratio to be 50:1 for every game, we had a thread about this a few years ago and theorized that it could be around 20:1, obviously during the ps360 gen downloading entire games wasn't really popular as it is now so a lot of older stuff have low ratings.

But then again, some big publishers said retail to digital sales ratio is around 90:10 on new consoles.



jlmurph2 on 05 October 2014

How do you know these people aren't rating their retail version? This theory is super flawed.



TheWPCTraveler on 05 October 2014
jlmurph2 said:

How do you know these people aren't rating their retail version? This theory is super flawed.

This. The original Theatrhythm: Final Fantasy was retail-only and got ratings on the eShop, as far as I know.



 
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huiii on 05 October 2014
jlmurph2 said:

How do you know these people aren't rating their retail version? This theory is super flawed.


iirc you can only rate someting on psn if you've bought it there. 



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Kerotan on 05 October 2014
baloofarsan said:

This about Watch Dogs (from Gaf): http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=852745

PS4XB1 digital share of is 10%, with the XB1 being a bit more than 10% and the PS4 a bit less than 10%.
The digital share for 360PS3 is only 3 to 5%.

 

Nintendo in 2012 report:   http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/121025/03.html

Without any advertisements in the mass media, the world average ratio of digital download sales of packaged software as of the end of September varied from slightly more than 3% to slightly over 10% of the total sales,


So if it's just over 10% then watch dogs PS4 should have about 350k digital downloads. 

The two editions on PSN have 9500 and 1800 ratings so that's 11,300 total. 350k downloads/11,300 ratings =  1 rating per every 31 sales. Just to clarify the minecraft ratio was actually just under 40 sales per rating on the PS3. I said 50 by mistake. So both of those aren't too far away. ANyone else want to give announced sales or percentage digital sales for any other game and i'll match it up? 



baloofarsan on 05 October 2014
Kerotan said:
baloofarsan said:

This about Watch Dogs (from Gaf): http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=852745

PS4XB1 digital share of is 10%, with the XB1 being a bit more than 10% and the PS4 a bit less than 10%.
The digital share for 360PS3 is only 3 to 5%.

 

Nintendo in 2012 report:   http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/121025/03.html

Without any advertisements in the mass media, the world average ratio of digital download sales of packaged software as of the end of September varied from slightly more than 3% to slightly over 10% of the total sales,


So if it's just over 10% then watch dogs PS4 should have about 350k digital downloads. 

The two editions on PSN have 9500 and 1800 ratings so that's 11,300 total. 350k downloads/11,300 ratings =  1 rating per every 31 sales. Just to clarify the minecraft ratio was actually just under 40 sales per rating on the PS3. I said 50 by mistake. So both of those aren't too far away. ANyone else want to give announced sales or percentage digital sales for any other game and i'll match it up? 

Your method seems to be as accurate as VGChartz!  LOL

Keep up the search for official numbers and you will soon have a good enough statistical ratio.



Mnementh on 05 October 2014
huiii said:
jlmurph2 said:

How do you know these people aren't rating their retail version? This theory is super flawed.


iirc you can only rate someting on psn if you've bought it there.

Strange. On eShop you can rate games that you played on the console, be it retail or download. Why should people who bought the game retail shouldn't be able to rate? That seems backwards.



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benji232 on 05 October 2014
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:

Came across this ages ago but only signed up recently so never got to say it. 

You can look that numbers up but a few months back Minecraft announced how many digital copies they'd sold on the PS3 store. It sounded like a lot so I went onto the site and checked the number of ratings it had. It worked out that for every 50 people that bought it (roughly) 1 of them rated it. 

This is only 1 game but if you matched up officail numbers for known games and checked their ratings I'm sure we could find a god average. 

The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game. 

Destiny PS4 has around 6k ratings I think so that prob has a good 300k digital copies sold. 

@bolded is the reason why this is NOT a good way to estimate digital sales. 


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Blob on 05 October 2014
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:

@bolded is the reason why this is NOT a good way to estimate digital sales. 


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.

I think the % of digital downloads that people on Vgchartz seem to throw around is often grossly overstated. Who are these people downloading 30-40gb games to their tiny hard drives regulalarly? In some countries id imagine that digital download is also pretty much non existent this gen when you also take into account internet speeds...