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Forums - Sales Discussion - I've a good way to estimate digital sales on consoles!

GTAexpert said:
prinz_valium said:
GTAexpert said:

 

Not very precise, but it gives a good basis. I'm sure for games which have PSN exclusive editions/better price on PSN, the attach rates are far better than 10%. Like it will be for Driveclub.


sure. yes

like i said for cheap arcade games like minecraft etc

 

but infamous:ss as example is an open world offline singel player game.

so i highly doubt its over 10%. maybe even below

 

i would give destiny 12 - 13 %

Infamous: Second Son has over 30k ratings on PSN last time I checked, so its digital sales are likely much more than that. Besides it had a PSN exclusive edition as well.


what? ofc they are more than 30k

i said 10%, or slightly below, are digital sales

 

30k woud be 1,7%

its for sure at, or over 150k (8,5%)

 

but its also likely below 200k (11,2%)



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benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:

Came across this ages ago but only signed up recently so never got to say it. 

You can look that numbers up but a few months back Minecraft announced how many digital copies they'd sold on the PS3 store. It sounded like a lot so I went onto the site and checked the number of ratings it had. It worked out that for every 50 people that bought it (roughly) 1 of them rated it. 

This is only 1 game but if you matched up officail numbers for known games and checked their ratings I'm sure we could find a god average. 

The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game. 

Destiny PS4 has around 6k ratings I think so that prob has a good 300k digital copies sold. 

@bolded is the reason why this is NOT a good way to estimate digital sales. 


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 



GTAexpert said:
prinz_valium said:
GTAexpert said:

 

Not very precise, but it gives a good basis. I'm sure for games which have PSN exclusive editions/better price on PSN, the attach rates are far better than 10%. Like it will be for Driveclub.


sure. yes

like i said for cheap arcade games like minecraft etc

 

but infamous:ss as example is an open world offline singel player game.

so i highly doubt its over 10%. maybe even below

 

i would give destiny 12 - 13 %

Infamous: Second Son has over 30k ratings on PSN last time I checked, so its digital sales are likely much more than that. Besides it had a PSN exclusive edition as well.

Not on the EU store anyway. Are the ratings for games on PSN universal? If not then that throws a spanner in the works. Also are you talking about the star rating or the thumbs up rating? Because I'm  talking about the star rating. 

For people saying this method is not accurate you can get rock solid ratios for games that have announced digital sales. Problem is there aren't many but over time we could make a fairly acurate ratio for AAA games and cheaper games. This is a sales site and people should be helping with this instead of throwing the toys out of the pram. 



Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.


Watch dogs has about 350k digital downloads on PS4. I don't think it's out of this world to suggested a much better received game that had no resolution/downgrade saga controversy had a digital attach ration a bit higher. 

Honestly you thinking Second Son only has around 60k downloads is crazy. I just checked the EU psn store and for the regular edition 49.9k people have given it a thumbs up rating. Another 1.3k gave the legendary edition a thumbs up. SO you're trying to tell me about 90% of buyers gave it a thumbs up? 

Come on you know that's wildly innacurate. As I said that game has likely about 300k downloads and my evidence suggest so.

Also I agree that destiny will have a low ratio. A lot of destiny buyers got it with the PS4 bundle and it got a lot of stick so I reckon a lot of people got it from the stores. Most people only download games they know are good. Plus the game has less ratings than the likes of infamous on the store which have sold less retail than it. 



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Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.


Watch dogs has about 350k digital downloads on PS4. I don't think it's out of this world to suggested a much better received game that had no resolution/downgrade saga controversy had a digital attach ration a bit higher. 

Honestly you thinking Second Son only has around 60k downloads is crazy. I just checked the EU psn store and for the regular edition 49.9k people have given it a thumbs up rating. Another 1.3k gave the legendary edition a thumbs up. SO you're trying to tell me about 90% of buyers gave it a thumbs up? 

Come on you know that's wildly innacurate. As I said that game has likely about 300k downloads and my evidence suggest so.

Also I agree that destiny will have a low ratio. A lot of destiny buyers got it with the PS4 bundle and it got a lot of stick so I reckon a lot of people got it from the stores. Most people only download games they know are good. Plus the game has less ratings than the likes of infamous on the store which have sold less retail than it. 

Well last time I was on my ps4, I gave a few games a thumbs up and I had not purchased it digitally (I think it was a rating, if not then ignore this). 

But honnestly, it's useless to argue this without any facts to back anything up. I think that you're severely overestimating digital sales on consoles. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 said:

Well last time I was on my ps4, I gave a few games a thumbs up and I had not purchased it digitally (I think it was a rating, if not then ignore this). 

But honnestly, it's useless to argue this without any facts to back anything up. I think that you're severely overestimating digital sales on consoles. 


what i'm about to tell you is fact. you can't rate a game unless you buy it. you can't even see the thumbs up for games unless you buy it let alone give it a thumbs up. My whole discussion has been in relation to the star ratingsa not the thumbs up but I was just pointing out that over 50k people who bought infamous digitally gave it a thumbs up. I highly doubt 1 in 4 people even bothered doing that. Seriously doesn't take a genius to work out it had decent digital sales. 



Kerotan said:
benji232 said:

Well last time I was on my ps4, I gave a few games a thumbs up and I had not purchased it digitally (I think it was a rating, if not then ignore this). 

But honnestly, it's useless to argue this without any facts to back anything up. I think that you're severely overestimating digital sales on consoles. 


what i'm about to tell you is fact. you can't rate a game unless you buy it. you can't even see the thumbs up for games unless you buy it let alone give it a thumbs up. My whole discussion has been in relation to the star ratingsa not the thumbs up but I was just pointing out that over 50k people who bought infamous digitally gave it a thumbs up. I highly doubt 1 in 4 people even bothered doing that. Seriously doesn't take a genius to work out it had decent digital sales. 

Which thumbs up are you talking about? If you're talking about giving a "like" to a certain game, then no, you do not need to own it digitally in order to give it a like as I've given thumbs up to nhl 15 and destiny by simply owning digital copies of those games.

And whatever, if it's what makes you happy, then go on and believe that Infamous Second Son sold 500k+ copies digitally and that Destiny already sold 300k+ copies digitally. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

Even if you combine the ratings the total is  higher than 50k. LOL. Indeed that is just a guess. Wrong, sure, but it is a guess.



michael_stutzer said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

Even if you combine the ratings the total is  higher than 50k. LOL. Indeed that is just a guess. Wrong, sure, but it is a guess.

Ok, so you think the actual sales are closer to 75k or 500k?



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M