By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - I've a good way to estimate digital sales on consoles!

benji232 said:
michael_stutzer said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

Even if you combine the ratings the total is  higher than 50k. LOL. Indeed that is just a guess. Wrong, sure, but it is a guess.

Ok, so you think the actual sales are closer to 75k or 500k?

All I am saying is that while we have factual data of the number game ratings claiming that the sales are lower than the number of ratings itself is a waste of everybody's time. The only point I'd see is if you claim the ratings are fabricated or say everybody who purchase the game rate it.

It is definitely higher than 75k and much lower than 500k. 200k would be my guess. 



Around the Network
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:

what i'm about to tell you is fact. you can't rate a game unless you buy it. you can't even see the thumbs up for games unless you buy it let alone give it a thumbs up. My whole discussion has been in relation to the star ratingsa not the thumbs up but I was just pointing out that over 50k people who bought infamous digitally gave it a thumbs up. I highly doubt 1 in 4 people even bothered doing that. Seriously doesn't take a genius to work out it had decent digital sales. 

Which thumbs up are you talking about? If you're talking about giving a "like" to a certain game, then no, you do not need to own it digitally in order to give it a like as I've given thumbs up to nhl 15 and destiny by simply owning digital copies of those games.

And whatever, if it's what makes you happy, then go on and believe that Infamous Second Son sold 500k+ copies digitally and that Destiny already sold 300k+ copies digitally. 

What are you smoking! I said my theory supports Second son selling around 300k digitally not 500k. Read my posts properly please. 

And if you're referring to the same thumbs up as I am you're absolutely wrong. Maybe you're taking about something in the activity feed or something like that. 

But I'm not. Pay attention to the following. I just went on the PS4 store, clicked destiny and the only option is "add to cart". I can see the start ratings but not the thumbs up ratings. (Because I haven't bought it). Now I have the NHL 15 demo so i went onto that and low and behold the "add to cart" option is replaced by the thumbs up rating thing. 

For the actual game it's not there because once again I've not bought it. SO yes the 50k thumbs up on infamous EU store are from actual digital buyers of the game., Meaning that realistically unless everyone who bought it decided to give it a thumbs up it has likely sold a few hundred thousand digital copies. 

Now I've a feeling you're going to say that for games you own on disc you can rate them so I checked and once again you can't. I have both Killzone Shadow Fall and BF4 on the disc and when I go to them on the store once again I can see the star ratings (but not add my own) and I can't even see how many thumbs up it got. FYI it's got 20k star ratings so it looks like that game sold a lot of digital copies. 



benji232 said:

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

You are speaking without evidence. Evidence says that atleast 10% sales of every game on average on PS4 is digital. So by that logic atleast 180k people have downloaded Infamous: Second Son. That goes well with the number of ratings it has recieved on PSN. You're 50-75k prediction is too far off. Especially since Infamous: Second Son has a rather small file size.



GTAexpert said:
benji232 said:
 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

You are speaking without evidence. Evidence says that atleast 10% sales of every game on average on PS4 is digital. So by that logic atleast 180k people have downloaded Infamous: Second Son. That goes well with the number of ratings it has recieved on PSN. You're 50-75k prediction is too far off. Especially since Infamous: Second Son has a rather small file size.

and especially since over 50k people who bought it digitally gave it a thumbs up on the eu store. I can easily see it doing a good 300k. Low end 200k high end 350k. 



michael_stutzer said:
benji232 said:
michael_stutzer said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 

If you really think that a game that sold 1.7m retail copies has sold over 500k digitally, then I don't know what to tell you honnestly. Sorry.


that was a guess. I compared the actual figures in terms of downloads and ratings for mincraft ps3 and watchdogs ps4 and the ratio works out as 1 rating per 30-40 purchases. Infamous second son has sold 1.8 retail so does it sound out of this world if it had 350k digital downloads and 1.8m retail? 

I don't think so. 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

Even if you combine the ratings the total is  higher than 50k. LOL. Indeed that is just a guess. Wrong, sure, but it is a guess.

Ok, so you think the actual sales are closer to 75k or 500k?

All I am saying is that while we have factual data of the number game ratings claiming that the sales are lower than the number of ratings itself is a waste of everybody's time. The only point I'd see is if you claim the ratings are fabricated or say everybody who purchase the game rate it.

It is definitely higher than 75k and much lower than 500k. 200k would be my guess. 

75k was just a guess of the top of my head. The point that I was trying to make it that digital sales are no where near 500k.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Around the Network
Kerotan said:
benji232 said:
Kerotan said:

what i'm about to tell you is fact. you can't rate a game unless you buy it. you can't even see the thumbs up for games unless you buy it let alone give it a thumbs up. My whole discussion has been in relation to the star ratingsa not the thumbs up but I was just pointing out that over 50k people who bought infamous digitally gave it a thumbs up. I highly doubt 1 in 4 people even bothered doing that. Seriously doesn't take a genius to work out it had decent digital sales. 

Which thumbs up are you talking about? If you're talking about giving a "like" to a certain game, then no, you do not need to own it digitally in order to give it a like as I've given thumbs up to nhl 15 and destiny by simply owning digital copies of those games.

And whatever, if it's what makes you happy, then go on and believe that Infamous Second Son sold 500k+ copies digitally and that Destiny already sold 300k+ copies digitally. 

What are you smoking! I said my theory supports Second son selling around 300k digitally not 500k. Read my posts properly please. 

And if you're referring to the same thumbs up as I am you're absolutely wrong. Maybe you're taking about something in the activity feed or something like that. 

But I'm not. Pay attention to the following. I just went on the PS4 store, clicked destiny and the only option is "add to cart". I can see the start ratings but not the thumbs up ratings. (Because I haven't bought it). Now I have the NHL 15 demo so i went onto that and low and behold the "add to cart" option is replaced by the thumbs up rating thing. 

For the actual game it's not there because once again I've not bought it. SO yes the 50k thumbs up on infamous EU store are from actual digital buyers of the game., Meaning that realistically unless everyone who bought it decided to give it a thumbs up it has likely sold a few hundred thousand digital copies. 

Now I've a feeling you're going to say that for games you own on disc you can rate them so I checked and once again you can't. I have both Killzone Shadow Fall and BF4 on the disc and when I go to them on the store once again I can see the star ratings (but not add my own) and I can't even see how many thumbs up it got. FYI it's got 20k star ratings so it looks like that game sold a lot of digital copies. 

Getting overly defensive here, I see lol. Here is a quote from your OP "The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game."

I was talking about the thumbs up on the PS4 home screen. I'm still pretty new to the PS4 OS as I've just purchased it a month ago. Now, as I said, I'm not here to start a debate on how many copies Infamous Second Son sold digitally (as I don't even care about that game). I'm just saying that the methodology that you suggested in the OP would have a huge error margin and would be nowhere near enough accurate for it to be considered a good way to measure digital sales. Obviously, there are games that people are going to be much more inclined to rate then others. For example, a bad game, more people will go rate it negatively because they're mad about their experience with that said game. 

But you know what, if you think that your methodology is actually good. Then go ahead, and use it. I really don't mind. In fact, if it does actually work out and I'm completely wrong, then more power to you because I'd love to one day be able to know how much each games sold digitally.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

GTAexpert said:
benji232 said:
 

Out of this world for a game like infamous second son, yes. Minecraft is the type of game most people would download. Infamous Second son and Destiny, not so much. I'd be willing to bet it more then likely sold around 50-75k digitally. But obviously, I can't prove that. It's just guesses. However, it's very improbable that it sold 250k+ digitally.

You are speaking without evidence. Evidence says that atleast 10% sales of every game on average on PS4 is digital. So by that logic atleast 180k people have downloaded Infamous: Second Son. That goes well with the number of ratings it has recieved on PSN. You're 50-75k prediction is too far off. Especially since Infamous: Second Son has a rather small file size.

Obviously, 50-75k was just off the top with nothing to back it up. I was just trying to make a point that sales of a game that sold 1.8M retail will be nowhere near 500k. 180k actually makes sense.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

Pretty interesting dude...Didn't read the whole thread so sorry if it was already said, but one or some of us should go through and try to get data for several dozen AAA games where info is available, get an average for ratings per stated DL's, and see if there is consistency...I like the idea.



benji232 said:

Obviously, 50-75k was just off the top with nothing to back it up. I was just trying to make a point that sales of a game that sold 1.8M retail will be nowhere near 500k. 180k actually makes sense.


It was a question not a statement. I did the math for my theory and it works out at around 300k copies. If you're goig ot have a serious debate don't say it sold more like 50-80k digital. I didn't say that it had 500k I was just getting the debate going. 



Kerotan said:

benji232 said:

Obviously, 50-75k was just off the top with nothing to back it up. I was just trying to make a point that sales of a game that sold 1.8M retail will be nowhere near 500k. 180k actually makes sense.


It was a question not a statement. I did the math for my theory and it works out at around 300k copies. If you're goig ot have a serious debate don't say it sold more like 50-80k digital. I didn't say that it had 500k I was just getting the debate going. 

Lol, 50-80k was just a number off the top like your 500k number was. And you get way too defensive to have a serious debate anyways. I don't believe that your technique is pretty accurate, and I gave my reasons why. Now if you believe otherwise, then fine. As I've said, I really don't care about the sales number of Infamous specifically and I don't even care for that franchise nor do I have any interest in it. I came here to debate wether or not your technique is good, not if infamous second sond sold 75k or 180k or 300k. And in my opinion, this methodology has a way too big error margin to be even considered as an acceptable methodology. 

I mean, how can you prove that it's only 10% of digital owners that rated Destiny? How can you prove that it wasn't 20 or 30%? Or even 50%. How can you prove that it's only 10% of Second Son owners that rated the game? Etc. It doesn't mean that 1 game got rated by a certain % of people that every other game on the PSN shop got rated by only 10% of owners.

The only thing you got going for your methodology is that you can say that "X game sold a minimum of X copies due to X number of ratings on the psn shop". But you really can't go beyond that in MY OPINION.

Anyways, I gave my OPINION. Now I'm out of this thread for good. I really don't care if you don't like my opinion and it's not going to change until we have some proof to back up this way to estimate digital sales.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M