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Forums - Nintendo - WiiU Overtracked on VGC? ioi (Confirmed Overtracked)

Barozi on 03 September 2014
chapset said:
generic-user-1 said:
chapset said:
it's at least overtracked by 400k or 500k probably more.


where should all those wii us be? the shops dont have 40 wiius  stacked to pyramides like xbones.

having 400k - 500k available is nothing special lol don't forget the wii U is available worldwide. The difference between shipement and sold last gen was almost always above 1million (and if it wasn't people went crazy with overtrack threads) Unless you think most shops stop carying wii Us I don't see the problem here

Considering Nintendo managed to ship a negative amount to Europe in one quarter, I'm sure there are not that many WiiUs in stock (t)here.
But I doubt that's the case anywhere else.



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Teeqoz on 03 September 2014
Barozi said:
Teeqoz said:


We'll get the next shipped numbers by the 30th (right?) so that people can get back to reality.

nah that's where the quarter ends, but the actual report from Nintendo follows about a month later.


OK thanks! I'm learning every day I'm here



chapset on 03 September 2014
Barozi said:
chapset said:
generic-user-1 said:
chapset said:
it's at least overtracked by 400k or 500k probably more.


where should all those wii us be? the shops dont have 40 wiius  stacked to pyramides like xbones.

having 400k - 500k available is nothing special lol don't forget the wii U is available worldwide. The difference between shipement and sold last gen was almost always above 1million (and if it wasn't people went crazy with overtrack threads) Unless you think most shops stop carying wii Us I don't see the problem here

Considering Nintendo managed to ship a negative amount to Europe in one quarter, I'm sure there are not that many WiiUs in stock (t)here.
But I doubt that's the case anywhere else.

That was before mk and the new impressive 50k baseline



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

TechnoHobbit on 03 September 2014

I'd love this analysis to be less guess work, but unfortunately VGChartz doesn't have detailed enough numbers for "other" regions. Anyway....

First of all, in the Americas as of June 30th VGChartz had it around 2.95 million (a guesstimate, we don't have numbers for south America so I just took a 120k out of "other" and put it on my guesstimate North America total of 2.83 million for June 28th) vs. the 3.08 Nintendo has shipped. That leaves about 130k on shelves, remove the extra 100k that VGChartz has for the US and we have around 230k on shelves in the Americas. A good number.

Next we have Japan, which is correct so I'm not going to go over it.

Next, Europe+Other non America regions, which has a total of around 1.84 million sold according VGChartz and my guesstimate using other regions. This is where I think VGChartz is really overtracking. According to Nintendo they only shipped 1.73 million here. So I imagine it should be closer to 1.6 million sold.

Basically I think VGChartz is overtracking the Wii U by 250-300k as of June 30th (depending on if I got my guess work right or not), about 200k of that is in Europe+Other non America regions and about a 100k in the US. 



Bets:

1. If the Wii U sells closer to 10 million LTD by 1/3/2015 I win. If it sells closer to 9.5 million LTD by 1/3/2015 OfficerRaichu15 wins (winner gets 2 weeks of avatar control)--Lost.

Smear-Gel on 03 September 2014
sweetoothj said:
AZWification said:

It's overtracked, but by 200k at most!


More like around a million to be honest with you. According to vgchartz xbox one has a million consoles on shelves yet retailers are ordering more xbox ones than Wii U. If Wii U was selling as well as you guys make it out to be, then how come the Wii U isn't being ordered by retailers as much?

*single tear falls from eye*



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Smear-Gel on 03 September 2014
JayWood2010 said:
Smear-Gel said:
Isnt a potential 100K overtracking 2 months ago something that would correct itself over time?


Depends if he overtracked/undertracked after june.  What we know is through june is overtracked.  After that we dont know until the next shipment numbers

True. Like others said, there's nothing to do but wait.



Jaywood2010 on 03 September 2014
Smear-Gel said:

True. Like others said, there's nothing to do but wait.


Yepp, looks like it.  Though, bringing it to ioi's attention could help.




       

Seece on 03 September 2014
padib said:
Personally I'm not saying it isn't over-tracked. But I think it's fair to consider all arguments as to why it might not be.

They're all weak, you just seem very intent on it not being overtracked so you'll explore any avenue possible other than the very real one that it is, indeed overtracked.



 

DerNebel on 03 September 2014
padib said:
Personally I'm not saying it isn't over-tracked. But I think it's fair to consider all arguments as to why it might not be.

I have yet to see one argument as to why it might not be overtracked.

One can have a valid discussion over how much the Wii U is overtracked, for example I believe it's "only" about 200k since I think stores could've held less stock anticipating the weekly average to go back down a couple weeks after MK8, but others can just as well say that it's 300k or 150k, we have no real way of proving how much it really is for now.

But that something is definitely not right about the difference between shipped vs. sold that Vgchartz is showing, that should be accepted by now, cause at the moment vgchartz is suggesting that the Wii U was basically sold out outside of Japan at the end of June, which simply cannot be right.



Seece on 03 September 2014
padib said:
Seece said:
padib said:
Personally I'm not saying it isn't over-tracked. But I think it's fair to consider all arguments as to why it might not be.

They're all weak, you just seem very intent on it not being overtracked so you'll explore any avenue possible other than the very real one that it is, indeed overtracked.

Why would you assume that? Cases of intent really aren't necessary.

Because it's obvious to anyone who tracks numbers here that 20k on shelves across Europe and NA is not remotely logical, there are no excuses (yet you're coming up with, like I said, various different reasons that don't make sense).