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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why Microsoft will not win even In US & UK

freedquaker on 21 August 2014
waza2323 said:
freedquaker said:
Seece said:
Right now PS4 isn't dominating, so it entirely depends on the next 5 - 17 months and what both MS and Sony do. Nobody can say for sure who will win US.


Neither party will dominate in US (but definite PS4 domination globally). My estimates (from 1 year earlier) indicate PS4's US market share will be around 55-65% by the end of the generation. Well, this range includes the scenario where XB1 stayed at $500 but now that they released a Kinectless bundle, I'd assume XB1!s market will be between 40-45% (still within the bracket estimated a year earlier).

So a split like 40-45 versus 50-55 between XB1 and PS4 is nothing to sneeze but again it will be the PS4 who has the upper hand this time.


Xbox will have 55-60% market share in US by the time this gen ends.

Halo 5 will go a long way in making sure that happens. It will be a blockbuster because Halo is truly one of the biggest franchises in all of gaming.

Halo 5, Halo MCC, and future Halos plus gears of war will help win the NA market


Look, I understand you WANT something to happen in a certain direction, but we need to be realistic. Ok, now let's assume, 2014 is what it is (where PS4 outsells XB1 by at least 35% annually) which brings the overall market share to below 45% for XB1. For reference:

Quote
----------

OVERALL USA 2014 Market Share based on VGChartz data

1st week:      PS4: 51.8%, XB1: 48.2%   (PS4 / XB1 : 1.076, PS4 = XB1 + 7.6%)

Aug 9 week : PS4: 54.5%, XB1: 45.5%   (PS4 / XB1 : 1.212, PS4 = XB1 + 21.2%)

When you look at the ANNUAL data (regarding solely the 2014 data, excluding the launch window), you see a much more grave situation for xb1, where ps4 has been outselling xb1 in US by 39% in the first half of 2014. Yes, even according to the VGChartz data, Sony sold 39% more PS4 than XB1. So the overall gap (21% as of now) WILL INCREASE, not decrease; that is at least the TREND.

---------

In 2015, even if we see a COMPLETE REVERSAL of 2014, even then the market share of XB1 will be BELOW 50%. You can come up with any creative math you like but there is no way to magically put XB1 on top of PS4 in US, by the end of 2015. Things do not happen in a vacuum, they are a function of their past. 2014 is mostly already predetermined by the first half of 2014. Part of 2015, we already know because of 2014. All those releases and whatnot can and will INFLUENCE to a degree, but not cause complete u-turns.

So even putting YOUR WILD OPTIMISIM FOR XB1 into a realistic statistic packet gives us no more than 50%.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Dr.Henry_Killinger on 21 August 2014
waza2323 said:

The only offense that is bannable is what you have been typing for condescending statements and flaming.

Nevertheless, it is okay. It is hard to admit when your in  denial. Luckily, there is an excellent rehabilitation process. The sooner you admit your delusions the better.

Does anyone actually read the rules when they register.

Calling me delusional, in denial, and a fanboy are all seperate instances of flaming.

You cannot point to any statement I have made to you or in this entire thread as condescending and or flaming. I know this to be a fact, I have been banned longer than you have had an account on this site, 90% of them for flaming. Trust me when I say this, I know what flaming is.

As for you're attempt at flippancy, it will not phase me. You have already admitted you we're wrong on both accounts and are now resorting to flamebaiting me.

Know this, every single post that I have made in this thread responding to you proves that you are wrong so frankly, I have no need to continue this further.

Consider this your last response from me on the subject, I have no need to compromise myself because of you.

Good day, Sir/Maam.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

waza2323 on 21 August 2014
freedquaker said:
waza2323 said:
freedquaker said:
Seece said:
Right now PS4 isn't dominating, so it entirely depends on the next 5 - 17 months and what both MS and Sony do. Nobody can say for sure who will win US.


Neither party will dominate in US (but definite PS4 domination globally). My estimates (from 1 year earlier) indicate PS4's US market share will be around 55-65% by the end of the generation. Well, this range includes the scenario where XB1 stayed at $500 but now that they released a Kinectless bundle, I'd assume XB1!s market will be between 40-45% (still within the bracket estimated a year earlier).

So a split like 40-45 versus 50-55 between XB1 and PS4 is nothing to sneeze but again it will be the PS4 who has the upper hand this time.


Xbox will have 55-60% market share in US by the time this gen ends.

Halo 5 will go a long way in making sure that happens. It will be a blockbuster because Halo is truly one of the biggest franchises in all of gaming.

Halo 5, Halo MCC, and future Halos plus gears of war will help win the NA market


Look, I understand you WANT something to happen in a certain direction, but we need to be realistic. Ok, now let's assume, 2014 is what it is (where PS4 outsells XB1 by at least 35% annually) which bring the market share to below 40% for XB1. For reference:

Quote
----------

OVERALL USA 2014 Market Share based on VGChartz data

1st week:      PS4: 51.8%, XB1: 48.2%   (PS4 / XB1 : 1.076, PS4 = XB1 + 7.6%)

Aug 9 week : PS4: 54.5%, XB1: 45.5%   (PS4 / XB1 : 1.212, PS4 = XB1 + 21.2%)

When you look at the ANNUAL data (regarding solely the 2014 data, excluding the launch window), you see a much more grave situation for xb1, where ps4 has been outselling xb1 in US by 39% in the first half of 2014. Yes, even according to the VGChartz data, Sony sold 39% more PS4 than XB1. So the overall gap (21% as of now) WILL INCREASE, not decrease; that is at least the TREND.

---------

In 2015, even if we see a COMPLETE REVERSAL of 2014, even then the market share of XB1 will be BELOW 50%. You can come up with any creative math you like but there is no way to magically put XB1 on top of PS4 in US, by the end of 2015. Things do not happen in a vacuum, they are a function of their past. 2014 is mostly already predetermined by the first half of 2014. Part of 2015, we already know because of 2014. All those releases and whatnot can and will INFLUENCE to a degree, but not cause complete u-turns.

So even putting YOUR WILD OPTIMISIM FOR XB1 into a realistic statistic packet gives us no more than 50%.

Alright, I can have a rational conversation with you. Past trends have shown that the Xbox 360 would get a much bigger boost in the last quarter of the year when sales during Oct-Dec are almost 50% of the rest of the year. This is based on VgChartz numbers.

I'm saying that Xbox One will get a larger boost during the holidays and close the 670k gap that currently exists, due to the 2 special bundles and Halo MCC will be coming out, while PS4 does not have any eclusives on that level.

I'm not arguing it will happen overnight. But the most important time of year is coming up, the holiday 2014 period, when sales increase and in the past, Xbox has usually picke dup most of its sales during this period.

PS4 will continue to increase the gap in first half 2015, but when Halo 5  comes out, my opinion is it will be a system seller and Xbox will begin to win month after month in US. Halo 5 is a true system seller and appeals more to the US market. When all the people who are still on last gen are waiting to upgrade, many will choose Xbox. By the time June 2016 comes around, Xbox marketshare should be 55%



Teeqoz on 21 August 2014
waza2323 said:
In the end, probably Xbox One will out sell PS4 1.75:1 in US, UK and PS4 will outsell xbox 2.5:1 globally


Lol, I laughed so hard at this! 1,75:1 in the US? You really think the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 by a higher ratio than the 360 outsold the PS3?



waza2323 on 21 August 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
waza2323 said:

Didn't read that all that sorry lol not interested in what you have to say so just let it go

Bannable offenses nonwithstanding, it seems I have to repeat myself once again.

Your dismissal and lack of response is simply a tacit admission of the fact that you were mistaken. Worry not friend, everyone makes mistakes and if you need to refuse admitting you were wrong to save face and stroke your Ego, that is understandable.

Not everyone has the strength of will to admit they were wrong, but at the very least you learn from this hopefully.

Calling me mistaken, insinuating that I am stroking my ego and basically flaming and putting me down as inferior and yourself a superior because you claim you were right is in fact bannable. good this is my last message as well to you.



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Landguy on 21 August 2014

No win scenario here, that is for sure



It is near the end of the end....

waza2323 on 21 August 2014
Teeqoz said:
waza2323 said:
In the end, probably Xbox One will out sell PS4 1.75:1 in US, UK and PS4 will outsell xbox 2.5:1 globally


Lol, I laughed so hard at this! 1,75:1 in the US? You really think the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 by a higher ratio than the 360 outsold the PS3?


Lol yup my mistake. i pointed out in my first thread that x1 will not even come close to  how the 360 beat the ps3 (17 million) i just made a msitake in my numbers.

1.2:1 in US



alabtrosMyster on 21 August 2014

You forget that the 360 had better version of most exclusives 

The Live service was better than the equivalent on other consoles, at first at least (but it came with a recurring fee).

 

I think your point is right, the only benefit I grant to the xb1 compared to the PS4 is that it seems to have a better selection of apps and will let you stream content to it.

 



Teeqoz on 21 August 2014
waza2323 said:
Teeqoz said:
waza2323 said:
In the end, probably Xbox One will out sell PS4 1.75:1 in US, UK and PS4 will outsell xbox 2.5:1 globally


Lol, I laughed so hard at this! 1,75:1 in the US? You really think the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 by a higher ratio than the 360 outsold the PS3?


Lol yup my mistake. i pointed out in my first thread that x1 will not even come close to  how the 360 beat the ps3 (17 million) i just made a msitake in my numbers.

1.2:1 in US


And for UK. The XBO is being outsold 2:1 every week. how do you expect the XBO to catch up and pass the PS4?



FlamingBlob on 21 August 2014
waza2323 said:
freedquaker said:
waza2323 said:
freedquaker said:
Seece said:
Right now PS4 isn't dominating, so it entirely depends on the next 5 - 17 months and what both MS and Sony do. Nobody can say for sure who will win US.


Neither party will dominate in US (but definite PS4 domination globally). My estimates (from 1 year earlier) indicate PS4's US market share will be around 55-65% by the end of the generation. Well, this range includes the scenario where XB1 stayed at $500 but now that they released a Kinectless bundle, I'd assume XB1!s market will be between 40-45% (still within the bracket estimated a year earlier).

So a split like 40-45 versus 50-55 between XB1 and PS4 is nothing to sneeze but again it will be the PS4 who has the upper hand this time.


Xbox will have 55-60% market share in US by the time this gen ends.

Halo 5 will go a long way in making sure that happens. It will be a blockbuster because Halo is truly one of the biggest franchises in all of gaming.

Halo 5, Halo MCC, and future Halos plus gears of war will help win the NA market


Look, I understand you WANT something to happen in a certain direction, but we need to be realistic. Ok, now let's assume, 2014 is what it is (where PS4 outsells XB1 by at least 35% annually) which bring the market share to below 40% for XB1. For reference:

Quote
----------

OVERALL USA 2014 Market Share based on VGChartz data

1st week:      PS4: 51.8%, XB1: 48.2%   (PS4 / XB1 : 1.076, PS4 = XB1 + 7.6%)

Aug 9 week : PS4: 54.5%, XB1: 45.5%   (PS4 / XB1 : 1.212, PS4 = XB1 + 21.2%)

When you look at the ANNUAL data (regarding solely the 2014 data, excluding the launch window), you see a much more grave situation for xb1, where ps4 has been outselling xb1 in US by 39% in the first half of 2014. Yes, even according to the VGChartz data, Sony sold 39% more PS4 than XB1. So the overall gap (21% as of now) WILL INCREASE, not decrease; that is at least the TREND.

---------

In 2015, even if we see a COMPLETE REVERSAL of 2014, even then the market share of XB1 will be BELOW 50%. You can come up with any creative math you like but there is no way to magically put XB1 on top of PS4 in US, by the end of 2015. Things do not happen in a vacuum, they are a function of their past. 2014 is mostly already predetermined by the first half of 2014. Part of 2015, we already know because of 2014. All those releases and whatnot can and will INFLUENCE to a degree, but not cause complete u-turns.

So even putting YOUR WILD OPTIMISIM FOR XB1 into a realistic statistic packet gives us no more than 50%.

Alright, I can have a rational conversation with you. Past trends have shown that the Xbox 360 would get a much bigger boost in the last quarter of the year when sales during Oct-Dec are almost 50% of the rest of the year. This is based on VgChartz numbers.

I'm saying that Xbox One will get a larger boost during the holidays and close the 670k gap that currently exists, due to the 2 special bundles and Halo MCC will be coming out, while PS4 does not have any eclusives on that level.

I'm not arguing it will happen overnight. But the most important time of year is coming up, the holiday 2014 period, when sales increase and in the past, Xbox has usually picke dup most of its sales during this period.

PS4 will continue to increase the gap in first half 2015, but when Halo 5  comes out, my opinion is it will be a system seller and Xbox will begin to win month after month in US. Halo 5 is a true system seller and appeals more to the US market. When all the people who are still on last gen are waiting to upgrade, many will choose Xbox. By the time June 2016 comes around, Xbox marketshare should be 55%

Your entire argument makes no sense..the 360 got a bigger boost in the holidays because it was the most popular console in NA...it outsold ps3 in the US year round.......it also was cheaper and had a year head start...The ps4 will get a bigger boost then X1 this gen. What happened last gen nw is irrelevant, jsut ask ps2.

 

No way will x1 outsell ps4 1.7:1 that is crazy talk.. Thats more then 360 and ps3...Not 1 game will totally turn around overall sales of a console like that. Your arguemtns are more wishfull thinking.

 

MS are not the only ones with games to push hardware, bundles and price cuts...I love these posts that act like MS are the only company who does these things.