freedquaker said:
waza2323 said:
freedquaker said:
Seece said:
Right now PS4 isn't dominating, so it entirely depends on the next 5 - 17 months and what both MS and Sony do. Nobody can say for sure who will win US. |
Neither party will dominate in US (but definite PS4 domination globally). My estimates (from 1 year earlier) indicate PS4's US market share will be around 55-65% by the end of the generation. Well, this range includes the scenario where XB1 stayed at $500 but now that they released a Kinectless bundle, I'd assume XB1!s market will be between 40-45% (still within the bracket estimated a year earlier).
So a split like 40-45 versus 50-55 between XB1 and PS4 is nothing to sneeze but again it will be the PS4 who has the upper hand this time.
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Xbox will have 55-60% market share in US by the time this gen ends.
Halo 5 will go a long way in making sure that happens. It will be a blockbuster because Halo is truly one of the biggest franchises in all of gaming.
Halo 5, Halo MCC, and future Halos plus gears of war will help win the NA market
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Look, I understand you WANT something to happen in a certain direction, but we need to be realistic. Ok, now let's assume, 2014 is what it is (where PS4 outsells XB1 by at least 35% annually) which bring the market share to below 40% for XB1. For reference:
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OVERALL USA 2014 Market Share based on VGChartz data
1st week: PS4: 51.8%, XB1: 48.2% (PS4 / XB1 : 1.076, PS4 = XB1 + 7.6%)
Aug 9 week : PS4: 54.5%, XB1: 45.5% (PS4 / XB1 : 1.212, PS4 = XB1 + 21.2%)
When you look at the ANNUAL data (regarding solely the 2014 data, excluding the launch window), you see a much more grave situation for xb1, where ps4 has been outselling xb1 in US by 39% in the first half of 2014. Yes, even according to the VGChartz data, Sony sold 39% more PS4 than XB1. So the overall gap (21% as of now) WILL INCREASE, not decrease; that is at least the TREND.
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In 2015, even if we see a COMPLETE REVERSAL of 2014, even then the market share of XB1 will be BELOW 50%. You can come up with any creative math you like but there is no way to magically put XB1 on top of PS4 in US, by the end of 2015. Things do not happen in a vacuum, they are a function of their past. 2014 is mostly already predetermined by the first half of 2014. Part of 2015, we already know because of 2014. All those releases and whatnot can and will INFLUENCE to a degree, but not cause complete u-turns.
So even putting YOUR WILD OPTIMISIM FOR XB1 into a realistic statistic packet gives us no more than 50%.
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Alright, I can have a rational conversation with you. Past trends have shown that the Xbox 360 would get a much bigger boost in the last quarter of the year when sales during Oct-Dec are almost 50% of the rest of the year. This is based on VgChartz numbers.
I'm saying that Xbox One will get a larger boost during the holidays and close the 670k gap that currently exists, due to the 2 special bundles and Halo MCC will be coming out, while PS4 does not have any eclusives on that level.
I'm not arguing it will happen overnight. But the most important time of year is coming up, the holiday 2014 period, when sales increase and in the past, Xbox has usually picke dup most of its sales during this period.
PS4 will continue to increase the gap in first half 2015, but when Halo 5 comes out, my opinion is it will be a system seller and Xbox will begin to win month after month in US. Halo 5 is a true system seller and appeals more to the US market. When all the people who are still on last gen are waiting to upgrade, many will choose Xbox. By the time June 2016 comes around, Xbox marketshare should be 55%
