Who will win in the end? | |||
| Wii U | 257 | 74.71% | |
| Xbox One | 87 | 25.29% | |
| Total: | 344 | ||
| MegaDrive08 said: If anything the fact PS4 is selling without any games is a joke and just shows the drone like behaviour of people in nowadays. |
Damn, I wish I was smarter. It sucks being born so stupid ):
Sigs are dumb. And so are you!
XB1 competing with PS4 in US alone shows it will end up well ahead of WiiU WW.
Combined the 360/PS3 userbase last gen in US was 70m~ even a 40m/30m split to PS4 (which isn't even close to being generous or sample like from current figures (3.05m vs 3.76m).
Then add on the fact US is 50% of Xbox audience and you're looking at 45/50m lifetime for XB1 as it currently stands (they could still take back US if they tried harder).
Point being, WiiU is going to struggle to hit 20m, it's struggling in every region. XB1 will do more in US than WiiU will WW lifetime by the end of this gen. Heck, it's already sold more in US this year than WiiU has shipped units WW.
it's not a race to second place. it's no one's game. the highest probability is that xone will be third. either wii u or ps4 can be first.
| Seece said: XB1 competing with PS4 in US alone shows it will end up well ahead of WiiU WW. Combined the 360/PS3 userbase last gen in US was 70m~ even a 40m/30m split to PS4 (which isn't even close to being generous or sample like from current figures (3.05m vs 3.76m). Then add on the fact US is 50% of Xbox audience and you're looking at 45/50m lifetime for XB1 as it currently stands (they could still take back US if they tried harder). Point being, WiiU is going to struggle to hit 20m, it's struggling in every region. XB1 will do more in US than WiiU will WW lifetime by the end of this gen. Heck, it's already sold more in US this year than WiiU has shipped units WW. |
This thinking falls apart because a huge percentage of American 360 owners are defecting to PS4. Xbox One is tanking in Europe thus far, Xbox One has some tough sledding in front of it. Not that the Wii U doesn't have its issues, but if it succeeds in being the 'second system', the Xbox could struggle. I do believe Xbox One likely will capture 2nd place, but its going to eerily be like gen 6 with Xbox just edging Gamecube.
| Seece said: XB1 competing with PS4 in US alone shows it will end up well ahead of WiiU WW. Combined the 360/PS3 userbase last gen in US was 70m~ even a 40m/30m split to PS4 (which isn't even close to being generous or sample like from current figures (3.05m vs 3.76m). Then add on the fact US is 50% of Xbox audience and you're looking at 45/50m lifetime for XB1 as it currently stands (they could still take back US if they tried harder). Point being, WiiU is going to struggle to hit 20m, it's struggling in every region. XB1 will do more in US than WiiU will WW lifetime by the end of this gen. Heck, it's already sold more in US this year than WiiU has shipped units WW. |
GOLD. really hard to know if you're serious. not that it matters, goes straight to the collection.
| Shadow1980 said: I'm going to have to go with the XBO. Assuming my projections for 2014 are accurate, by the end of the year the Wii U will still be in second place at 9.5 million with the XBO just behind it at 8.5M. With MK8 and Smash, the biggest system-sellers for Nintendo, being 2014 releases, unless the Wii U gets a price cut early next year gives a massive and sustained boost to sales, this will be the peak year for the system. While price cuts do frequently give big boosts to sales, their effects are unpredictable, with them sometimes giving a boost lasting only a couple of months while other times boosting sales for well over a year. The Wii itself is a good case study on the effects of price cuts. 2008 was an amazing year fro the Wii, with Smash and Mario Kart boosting sales earlier in the year to a huge degree. Q2 2008 was its best non-holiday quarter by far, and it still carried enough momentum through the remainder of the year for Q4 to be an astounding holiday quarter, pulling 5 million units in the U.S. The Wii then got its first price cut in September of the following year, which actually helped boost it to its best holiday season ever in the U.S. However, its baseline sales for 2009 prior to the price cut showed clear signs that the system was already peaking, with monthly sales from January through August being lower on average than even those in 2009; Q2 2009 was the first quarter it dropped below one million units sold per quarter in the U.S. The Mario Kart and Smash effects were fizzling out, and there was nothing left to give it further momentum until the price cut. While Q4 2009 was the Wii's best holiday, its sales were sufficiently low from the previous three quarters to where total 2009 sales fell short of 2008 sales. Of course, in 2010 it immediately started trending downwards again. I think we can expect something similar with the Wii U. Unless the price cut is established early enough, I think we'll see monthly sales start to decline YoY no later than Q2 of next year. Mario Kart and Smash won't be able to enhance the baseline for long, so it'll need a price cut to pick up the slack. If the price cut comes sufficiently late in the year, sales in 2015 will almost certainly decline YoY from 2014. Even if it comes early enough, it may at best keep sales roughly flat from this year. So, best-case scenario, the Wii U pulls another 4 million next year. Assuming it's at 9.5M by the end of this year, that'll put it at 13.5 million units sold LTD by the end of 2015. If the XBO is at 8.5M LTD by the end of this year, if the Wii U is at 13.5M LTD by the end of next year the XBO will have to sell 5 million next year just to tie it. This is the XBO's first full calendar year, and I think it's clear that it hasn't peaked yet. It has yet to receive main entries in its biggest IP, nor has it received its first "true" price cut yet. With Halo 5 coming next year, and the likelihood of a price drop to $300 next year, 2015 will likely be its peak year. It will almost certainly get a respectable YoY increase in sales, which if it pulls 5 million this year even only a modest 20% increase will yield 6 million next year, putting its LTD sales at 14.5 million, a million ahead of the Wii U. If it gets a strong 50% YoY boost, that'll put it at 16 million, 2.5M ahead of the Wii U. Unless both Halo 5 and an actual price cut fail to boost sales next year, an extremely unlikely situation, then it is inevitable that the XBO takes second place by the end of next year. Even if it doesn't accomplish that task next year, unlike the Wii U it will still get just as strong third-party support as the PS4, which will give it better legs, and with the Wii U already being well past it peak, 2016 is the absolute latest point by which the XBO will the Wii U. Even though it's falling waaaay short of its predecessor, the XBO still is having a far, far better first year than the Wii U and will almost certainly have a much better peak year next year, and combined with a better launch to boot, the XBO passing the Wii U is essentially a given. |
your wii u end of 2015 numbers are more in line with wii u end of 2014 numbers.
WiiU-Dude said:
|
They are? Did you bother looking at the figures I put in front of you?
3.05m for XB1 and 3.76m for PS4, for the past 9 months. If it continues at that rate up to 70m~ you're looking at 30.5m XB1's and 37.6m PS4's.
Even this past month it was 131k vs 187k.
Wiiu isn't the second system though is it? It's been out for 2 years now nearly and its sales are barely in front of XB1's. It's not got good sales in any region. Japan is very weak, and they're on par in Europe.
It won't be remotely close.
Shadow1980 said:
You really think the Wii U is going to be at 13.5 million by the end of 2014? You really think it's going to sell 6.5 million units between now and year's end when it hasn't even hit 6 million yet?
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Hey, he also thinks the Wii U has still a chance to end up first, so there's really no point in asking if he really believes this.
What I want to believe: Wii U. At this rate, it might actually win Japan this gen. I see some niche Japanese developers trying to make the switch from PS3 to Wii U because of similar architectures (and a higher potential for fanservice, but I digress.) A higher baseline for Wii U does wonders as well, and while system sellers don't seem to have a large impact on the baseline, their effects last longer..
What my brain tells me to believe: XBOne. Even if it competes directly with PS4, it's chasing after the mainstream market.
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:3
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Well if you look at the year-to-date NPD numbers (1.76 million PS4 and 1.23 million XBOX One) then they more closely resemble the numbers that you reported this past month of 131k vs 187k for XBOX One and PS4 respectively. If you look at the ratios of those numbers, they are EXACTLY the same. Therefore, the previous month sales are a better representation of how the consoles are going to sell in the future. Including the launch figures as a good representation of how the consoles will sell in the future makes all of your predictions meaningless. Do you know what a best-fit line is?
If you continue these data points up to 70 mil, as you stated, the numbers more closely resemble 41.2 mil PS4's to 28.8 mil XB1's
The only problem with the numbers that I stated is the fact that they exclude the launch figures; however, I still think that those numbers are a better representation of how the consoles are selling. But again, why is it necessary to speculate what the console will do in the future?
Someone else claimed that a lot of XBOX 360 users are going to the PS4. If you look at November 2005 to July 2006 for the XB360, it sold 2.21 million units in the US according to NPD. From November 2006 to July 2007, the PS3 sold 1.61 million units in the US according to NPD.
So yes 2.21m XB360/1.61m PS3 to 3.05m XB1/3.76m PS4 is a huge swing in their home market.
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