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Jimbo1337 on 20 August 2014
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This thinking falls apart because a huge percentage of American 360 owners are defecting to PS4. Xbox One is tanking in Europe thus far, Xbox One has some tough sledding in front of it. Not that the Wii U doesn't have its issues, but if it succeeds in being the 'second system', the Xbox could struggle. I do believe Xbox One likely will capture 2nd place, but its going to eerily be like gen 6 with Xbox just edging Gamecube.


They are? Did you bother looking at the figures I put in front of you?

3.05m for XB1 and 3.76m for PS4, for the past 9 months. If it continues at that rate up to 70m~ you're looking at 30.5m XB1's and 37.6m PS4's.

Even this past month it was 131k vs 187k.

Wiiu isn't the second system though is it? It's been out for 2 years now nearly and its sales are barely in front of XB1's. It's not got good sales in any region. Japan is very weak, and they're on par in Europe.

It won't be remotely close.


Well if you look at the year-to-date NPD numbers (1.76  million PS4 and 1.23 million XBOX One) then they more closely resemble the numbers that you reported this past month of 131k vs 187k for XBOX One and PS4 respectively.  If you look at the ratios of those numbers, they are EXACTLY the same.  Therefore, the previous month sales are a better representation of how the consoles are going to sell in the future.  Including the launch figures as a good representation of how the consoles will sell in the future makes all of your predictions meaningless.   Do you know what a best-fit line is?  

If you continue these data points up to 70 mil, as you stated, the numbers more closely resemble 41.2 mil PS4's to 28.8 mil XB1's

The only problem with the numbers that I stated is the fact that they exclude the launch figures; however, I still think that those numbers are a better representation of how the consoles are selling.  But again, why is it necessary to speculate what the console will do in the future?  

Someone else claimed that a lot of XBOX 360 users are going to the PS4.  If you look at November 2005 to July 2006 for the XB360, it sold 2.21 million units in the US according to NPD.  From November 2006 to July 2007, the PS3 sold 1.61 million units in the US according to NPD.  

So yes 2.21m  XB360/1.61m PS3 to 3.05m XB1/3.76m PS4 is a huge swing in their home market.