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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction - PS4 will have 20 million lead over Xbox One at the end of 2015

waza2323 on 15 August 2014

it will be hyped up big time by MS. Halo MCC is being released exactly for that reason, to hype halo 1 year in advance.

 

fact is, halo is a proven system seller. xbox will begin winning US and UK by end of 2015.

 

sony will win everywhere else.



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BeElite on 15 August 2014
waza2323 said:

Nope. It won't happen.

PS4 lead will actually slow down in the second half of 2015. Gap should be less than 10 million.

Why? Because of Halo 5. You guyss are eriously underestimating the power of the Halo Franchise. Uncharted is a great series, but it is no Halo.

Especially when MS announces a Halo 5 bundle, Xbox will start gaining on the PS4 (in US and UK)

At end of 2015, because of Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Quantum Break, and more gap will be shrinking as XBox starts winning the battle in US and UK (Sony will still be ahead worldwide)

Uncharted is good, but in US and UK shooters rule, and halo 5 will be a big boost to xbox one. just wait and see. forget about 20 million. gap will be less than 10 million by the time halo 5 comes out.

you funny.

Its not halo, its better.  Best of its kind its genre.  Its been a long time far far away since Halo was king of shooters.

Gap wont shrink ill grow, sony can easily match MS exclusives.  And they get the benefit on 3rd parties actually bumping their hardware.  The big 3rd party games that are thought of as traditional PS games MGS FF GTA will do plenty for PS and little for xbox.



Aerys on 15 August 2014
vivster said:
Aerys said:
vivster said:
PS4 would have to have one hell of a holiday then. so that would be like making ground like this:

Aug-Nov 3 million
Decemeber 2 million
Jan- Oct 600k per month
November 1 million
December 3 million

Seems quite tough. Or do you have a better breakdown?

Not really, selling 15M for a second year is nothing, and we can wait much more with such domination, like 18M.

 

While X1 will fight to reach 15M, with luck, more the PS4 will dominate, less the X1 will sell.

Those aren't absolute sales. Those are the sales PS4 has to reach ON TOP of X1 sales.

PS4 will reach 16M by the end of the year. Second year should reach 33-35M


X1 will reach in the best case 15M, so this goal of 20M is more than possible, or it will be close at least.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Incubi on 15 August 2014
waza2323 said:

Nope. It won't happen.

PS4 lead will actually slow down in the second half of 2015. Gap should be less than 10 million.

Why? Because of Halo 5. You guyss are seriously underestimating the power of the Halo Franchise. Uncharted is a great series, but it is no Halo.

Especially when MS announces a Halo 5 bundle, Xbox will start gaining on the PS4 (in US and UK)

At end of 2015, because of Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Quantum Break, and more gap will be shrinking as Xbox starts winning the battle in US and UK (Sony will still be ahead worldwide)

Uncharted is good, but in US and UK shooters rule, and halo 5 will be a big boost to xbox one. just wait and see. forget about 20 million. gap will be less than 10 million by the time halo 5 comes out.

Nice first post. I believe MS will be willing to bleed money for marketshare, and they have a lot of cash. A massive marketing blitz second half 2015 coupled with a strong lineup and perhaps a massive pricecut can help XBO close the gap. 



waza2323 on 15 August 2014
BeElite said:
waza2323 said:

Nope. It won't happen.

PS4 lead will actually slow down in the second half of 2015. Gap should be less than 10 million.

Why? Because of Halo 5. You guyss are eriously underestimating the power of the Halo Franchise. Uncharted is a great series, but it is no Halo.

Especially when MS announces a Halo 5 bundle, Xbox will start gaining on the PS4 (in US and UK)

At end of 2015, because of Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Quantum Break, and more gap will be shrinking as XBox starts winning the battle in US and UK (Sony will still be ahead worldwide)

Uncharted is good, but in US and UK shooters rule, and halo 5 will be a big boost to xbox one. just wait and see. forget about 20 million. gap will be less than 10 million by the time halo 5 comes out.

you funny.

Its not halo, its better.  Best of its kind its genre.  Its been a long time far far away since Halo was king of shooters.

Gap wont shrink ill grow, sony can easily match MS exclusives.  And they get the benefit on 3rd parties actually bumping their hardware.  The big 3rd party games that are thought of as traditional PS games MGS FF GTA will do plenty for PS and little for xbox.

I'm not concerned with which game is better.

The fact is, Halo is a proven system seller with series sales of 57 million sold. Uncharted is a much newer game series, but has series sales of 18 million. There is a massive difference.

The most recent game Halo 4, which was not received as well as past titles, still sold more than 9 million copies.

Halo MCC is being released to create more interest and hype for Halo 5. Halo has a very dedicated and massive fanbase. In US and UK, Xbox will reclaim the lead starting in the second half of 2015. I mean, currently PS4 is only ahead 600k units, and that is with xbox being $100 more cost for 7 months so it shows you how loyal MS fans are in north america.

worldwide is sony's stronghold. I just believe xbox will reclaim its strongholds of US and UK in the latter half of 2015.



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DD_Bwest on 15 August 2014

halo will help sales, but its not going to change the course of this gen, the ps4 will continue to lead.

and halo 5 isnt coming out until next holidays, the ps4 wil have move than a 10 million gap by then.



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daredevil.shark on 15 August 2014
DD_Bwest said:
halo will help sales, but its not going to change the course of this gen, the ps4 will continue to lead.

and halo 5 isnt coming out until next holidays, the ps4 wil have move than a 10 million gap by then.


And Halo 5 might get delayed. My speculation is tomb raider will be 2015 holiday exclusive because halo 5 got delayed. Lol.



waza2323 on 15 August 2014
DD_Bwest said:
halo will help sales, but its not going to change the course of this gen, the ps4 will continue to lead.

and halo 5 isnt coming out until next holidays, the ps4 wil have move than a 10 million gap by then.


This is what I am saying. PS4 lead will go past 10 million in the first half of 2015, then with the release of halo 5, the gap will go below 10 million by december 31, 2015



vivster on 15 August 2014
Aerys said:

PS4 will reach 16M by the end of the year. Second year should reach 33-35M


X1 will reach in the best case 15M, so this goal of 20M is more than possible, or it will be close at least.

Not so confident about that. That would need a Wii like baseline of 250k-300k per week.



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waza2323 on 15 August 2014
CGI-Quality said:
waza2323 said:

it will be hyped up big time by MS. Halo MCC is being released exactly for that reason, to hype halo 1 year in advance.

 

fact is, halo is a proven system seller. xbox will begin winning US and UK by end of 2015.

 

sony will win everywhere else.

Not saying that it can't happen, but one game won't be enough to reverse that gap. Price, year headstart, and market perception are also not an issue for Sony this time.

Whatever the 360 did last gen won't translate into the Xbox winning the US/UK this time.

You are forgetting one thing.

Xbox One was $100 more than PS4 for about 7 months. Despite that, the gap in North America is only about 600k units. Coupled with all of the bad publicity MS had, that is impressive. In addition, in north america, Xbox One has higher software sales and attach rate.

This is why I believe that MS has a loyal following in North America and will reclaim this territory. They have been making very aggressive moves and will continue to do so well into 2015.

I'm focusing on US and UK because that is the only path of redemption for Xbox. Worldwide is a lost cause and was never up for debate.