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Forums - Sales - Prediction - PS4 will have 20 million lead over Xbox One at the end of 2015

Hmmmn... I am so conflicted. T_T On the one hand, my initial thought of such a gap being achieved within a year in a half is one of mild disbelief as, it should be kept in mind that though the PS4 did indeed pull ahead by five million very quickly, the Xbox One diiiiidn't really have many notable title releases post-launch aside from Titanfall. xP Neither did the PS4, granted, but the Xbox One doesn't have high PR strength to compensate for that; with both companies coming out swinging their big exclusives, while I think the PS4 will still come out ahead in the long-run, I'm less certain that domination will be as total as it's been for 2014 so far.

On the other hand... Europe DID apparently have severe supply issues last holiday season, heck, so did the U.S. and Canada. With those corrected, and Sony's inevitable European dominance in both 2014 and 2015's holidays, assuming that the Xbox One doesn't pull too far ahead of it in the U.S.... it might happen.

Gaaaaah I don't knoooooow. T_______T



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CGI-Quality said:
Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
15 million seems too much but 10 million I can see

You only expect a 5 million sales growth over the next 12-16 months? O_O

I thought he ment like a gap? Like right now, Its 5 million ahead right? So I thought he is expecting it to be ahead by another 15 million on top of that so Instead, I am saying that I can see the ps4 selling 10 more million on top of the 5 million but not 15 million on top of the 5 million

And also, he said by 2015... So I thought that means at the end of 2014



                  

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Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
CGI-Quality said:

You only expect a 5 million sales growth over the next 12-16 months? O_O

I thought he ment like a gap? Like right now, Its 5 million ahead right? So I thought he is expecting it to be ahead by another 15 million on top of that so Instead, I am saying that I can see the ps4 selling 10 more million on top of the 5 million but not 15 million on top of the 5 million

And also, he said by 2015... So I thought that means at the end of 2014


Pardon my weak English (Not my first language. But I thought I am good at it). I am changing the title. Thanks.



what numbers do u expect?

30m ps4 vs just 10m xb1? seems to low for end of 2015 xb1 numbers
40m ps4 vs 20m xb1? seems to high for end of 2015 ps4 numbers (that would be wii phase)

that leaves 35m vs 15m on the table.
but still a gap >2:1 is carzy




PS4 would have to have one hell of a holiday then. so that would be like making ground like this:

Aug-Nov 3 million
Decemeber 2 million
Jan- Oct 600k per month
November 1 million
December 3 million

Seems quite tough. Or do you have a better breakdown?



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vivster said:
PS4 would have to have one hell of a holiday then. so that would be like making ground like this:

Aug-Nov 3 million
Decemeber 2 million
Jan- Oct 600k per month
November 1 million
December 3 million

Seems quite tough. Or do you have a better breakdown?

Not really, selling 15M for a second year is nothing, and we can wait much more with such domination, like 18M.

 

While X1 will fight to reach 15M, with luck, more the PS4 will dominate, less the X1 will sell.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

vivster said:
PS4 would have to have one hell of a holiday then. so that would be like making ground like this:

Aug-Nov 3 million
Decemeber 2 million
Jan- Oct 600k per month
November 1 million
December 3 million

Seems quite tough. Or do you have a better breakdown?


Its quite close. But I think PS4 will get even better boost with price cut. Plus bloodborne (not a system seller), uncharted 4 (system seller) and E3 2015 will push it more.



Nope. It won't happen.

PS4 lead will actually slow down in the second half of 2015. Gap should be less than 10 million.

Why? Because of Halo 5. You guyss are seriously underestimating the power of the Halo Franchise. Uncharted is a great series, but it is no Halo. In addition, Halo MCC will continue to sell well in the first half of 2015, coupled with xbox launching in 28 countries in september and gap will shrink. This is an unbiased analysis. PS4 will always lead worldwide ebcause their brand is much stornger in places like europe and japan. But the tide will turn in Xbox strongholds of US and UK in 2015.

Especially when MS announces a Halo 5 bundle, Xbox will start gaining on the PS4 (in US and UK)

At end of 2015, because of Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Quantum Break, and more gap will be shrinking as Xbox starts winning the battle in US and UK (Sony will still be ahead worldwide)

Uncharted is good, but in US and UK shooters rule, and halo 5 will be a big boost to xbox one. just wait and see. forget about 20 million. gap will be less than 10 million by the time halo 5 comes out.



waza2323 said:

Nope. It won't happen.

PS4 lead will actually slow down in the second half of 2015. Gap should be less than 10 million.

Why? Because of Halo 5. You guyss are eriously underestimating the power of the Halo Franchise. Uncharted is a great series, but it is no Halo.

Especially when MS announces a Halo 5 bundle, Xbox will start gaining on the PS4 (in US and UK)

At end of 2015, because of Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Quantum Break, and more gap will be shrinking as XBox starts winning the battle in US and UK (Sony will still be ahead worldwide)

Uncharted is good, but in US and UK shooters rule, and halo 5 will be a big boost to xbox one. just wait and see. forget about 20 million. gap will be less than 10 million by the time halo 5 comes out.


Halo doesnt have the hype of past. Halo is a great series but time has changed. Plus ps4 sells by itself.



Aerys said:
vivster said:
PS4 would have to have one hell of a holiday then. so that would be like making ground like this:

Aug-Nov 3 million
Decemeber 2 million
Jan- Oct 600k per month
November 1 million
December 3 million

Seems quite tough. Or do you have a better breakdown?

Not really, selling 15M for a second year is nothing, and we can wait much more with such domination, like 18M.

 

While X1 will fight to reach 15M, with luck, more the PS4 will dominate, less the X1 will sell.

Those aren't absolute sales. Those are the sales PS4 has to reach ON TOP of X1 sales. So add to those numbers whatever you think X1 will sell. No idea what the LTD sales of the PS4 end of 2015 will be.

But I'm still not buying it. Seems a bit too optimistic. It's not like MS is sitting on their hands.



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