In the Americas, Wii is ~1.55 million units (1555k) behind Xbox 360 right now.

Smash comes out March 9, GTA IV comes out April 28.

For the following weeks Wii will outsell Xbox 360 or be outsold by it by something like this:

Wk End.   Wii            360       

2/23     100k              70k

3/1       125k              70k 

3/8       175k              75k

3/15     160k              65k

3/22     140k              60k

3/29     125k              60k

4/5       110k              60k

4/12     100k              65k

4/19     100k              75k

4/26     100k              100k

5/3       110k              150k 

5/10     115k              135k

5/17     130k              125k

5/24     130k              110k

5/31     115k              100k 

6/7       100k              90k

6/14     90k                80k

6/21     90k                75k 

6/28     85k                70k 

Wii demand will peak around Wii Fit (5/19) and Smash (3/10), 360 demand will peak around GTA IV (4/28).  The Xbox 360 sales assume a $50 price cut comes April 24 or so.  In this situation, Wii gains about 550k on Xbox 360 over the next four months, cutting the lead down to 1 million units.  However, to catch the Xbox 360 by June, as Reggie has said, seems unlikely if Microsoft cuts the 360 price before GTAIV.

Beyond Smash and Wii Fit, what does Nintendo have that is of big sales importance?  Rockband and more Guitar Hero will arrive this year, Mario Kart will probably be the holiday title.  Other games, like Pikmin, or Animal Crossing seem unlikely to drive adoption.  

Now with all of that said, there is one way sure fire way Nintendo could catch Xbox 360 by June, and undermine GTAIV + price drop momentum.

Nintendo could drop Wii - still packaged with Wii Sports - to $200.  To do this, Ninitendo would need huge stock reserves.  However, with production supposedly at 1.8 million/month, and sales unlikely to top 1.3/1.4 million routinely worldwide (except when games like Smash/Wii Fit/Mario Kart launch, or for a price drop, or for  holidays), Nintendo might be able to drop an extra 1 million+ units in April to June 2008 in the Americas.  If that is the case, then Reggie will be correct, and despite GTAIV, Wii will surpass Xbox 360 by June.

My view is that sales will roughly follow the chart above, with Nintendo/3rd parties pulling out a few big guns in late 2008 to keep the momentum going (Wii Music? Kid Icarus? Mario Kart? Disaster: DoC? Crystal Chronicles? etc), but without a price cut, Wii will only outsell Xbox 360 by 50k-100k/month in July-Oct.  That will mean in the Americas it will probably come down to this Nov-Dec for Wii to pass Xbox 360 for good.  At this point the only two unknowns that would change that are Wii Fit's impact in the Americas, and how supply/price cutting will play out. 

no

Wow, you really don't think much of the Wii's selling power, do you? Or are you assuming that current trends are a perfect reflection of future trends? Because rest assured, they're not...

Edit addition: to elaborate, your estimates appear to be based on 2007 quantities.  Which were, of course, during a time when supply was even more limited than it is now.  While not all of the increased supply has gone to the US since the production increases, we haven't exactly gotten no extra Wiis per week.  For your projection to happen, the Wii would have to meet demand in America at last, and shortly after the supply increase at the start of this next fiscal year at that.  Somehow I just don't see that happening.

Serious question: How do we have any idea what the upper limit of demand within NA is for the wii? Are you under the impression that it is no longer supply constrained? (obviously not referring to this past week and the build up of stock for brawl).

2 Exclusive Killer-App titles by Nintendo Vs. 1 multiplatform Killer-App (GTA is a great franchise, but the multiplatform release is going to have an impact.) - Nintendo Wins.

I have Wii outselling Xbox 360 in the Americas, but I'm not entirely convinced it will be this year.  I have trouble seeing it before June, although it will depend on Wii Fit.

GTAIV can probably sell 2-4 million copies within two weeks of release in the Americas.  Most of that will be on Xbox 360.  Probably a debut of 1.2 to 2.2 million on 360, with enormous legs, especially if it comes with a price cut. I just think that bump is enough to seriously delay Wii from catching Xbox 360 in the Americas.

Just having huge stock reserves to release would allow them to meet this goal..they don't need to drop price to do it. I'm actually kind of surprised you think otherwise...any particular reason?

edit: The part I'm surprised about is that you think a surge of units would somehow languish without an accompanying price drop to help move them out the door...I'm not entirely in disagreement about the difficulties of meeting the goal by June.

Do we have any indication as to what the weekly cap will be here in the US if Nintendo decides to shift more of their production weight in this direction?

It seems to me that if Reggie makes such a claim, Nintendo is going to push to meet this deadline in order to get the press. This will likely involve shifting their production focus this way.

If Nintendo were to do so, and ship however many units to the US as were needed where do you see sales numbers topping out at?

What I'm asking is whether your numbers are assuming continued supply crunches here in the states, or whether you just think that's the level demand is at?

 That's what I figure.

 Plus, the Wii currently has more pent-up demand than the 360, even though they both seem to have supply issues right now.

If Reggie says they'll catch them by then this means shipments to America will increase. Meaning keeping it at similar selling rates to before that is silly. I think we need to take that into account. It's possible that Wii could sell on average 150k-175k a week with peaks at 300k with Wii Fit and Brawl.