Can GTAIV Stop Wii from Catching Xbox 360 in the Americas ?

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In the Americas, Wii is ~1.55 million units (1555k) behind Xbox 360 right now.

Smash comes out March 9, GTA IV comes out April 28.

For the following weeks Wii will outsell Xbox 360 or be outsold by it by something like this:

Wk End.   Wii            360       

2/23     100k              70k

3/1       125k              70k 

3/8       175k              75k

3/15     160k              65k

3/22     140k              60k

3/29     125k              60k

4/5       110k              60k

4/12     100k              65k

4/19     100k              75k

4/26     100k              100k

5/3       110k              150k 

5/10     115k              135k

5/17     130k              125k

5/24     130k              110k

5/31     115k              100k 

6/7       100k              90k

6/14     90k                80k

6/21     90k                75k 

6/28     85k                70k 

Wii demand will peak around Wii Fit (5/19) and Smash (3/10), 360 demand will peak around GTA IV (4/28).  The Xbox 360 sales assume a $50 price cut comes April 24 or so.  In this situation, Wii gains about 550k on Xbox 360 over the next four months, cutting the lead down to 1 million units.  However, to catch the Xbox 360 by June, as Reggie has said, seems unlikely if Microsoft cuts the 360 price before GTAIV.

Beyond Smash and Wii Fit, what does Nintendo have that is of big sales importance?  Rockband and more Guitar Hero will arrive this year, Mario Kart will probably be the holiday title.  Other games, like Pikmin, or Animal Crossing seem unlikely to drive adoption.  

Now with all of that said, there is one way sure fire way Nintendo could catch Xbox 360 by June, and undermine GTAIV + price drop momentum.

Nintendo could drop Wii - still packaged with Wii Sports - to $200.  To do this, Ninitendo would need huge stock reserves.  However, with production supposedly at 1.8 million/month, and sales unlikely to top 1.3/1.4 million routinely worldwide (except when games like Smash/Wii Fit/Mario Kart launch, or for a price drop, or for  holidays), Nintendo might be able to drop an extra 1 million+ units in April to June 2008 in the Americas.  If that is the case, then Reggie will be correct, and despite GTAIV, Wii will surpass Xbox 360 by June.

My view is that sales will roughly follow the chart above, with Nintendo/3rd parties pulling out a few big guns in late 2008 to keep the momentum going (Wii Music? Kid Icarus? Mario Kart? Disaster: DoC? Crystal Chronicles? etc), but without a price cut, Wii will only outsell Xbox 360 by 50k-100k/month in July-Oct.  That will mean in the Americas it will probably come down to this Nov-Dec for Wii to pass Xbox 360 for good.  At this point the only two unknowns that would change that are Wii Fit's impact in the Americas, and how supply/price cutting will play out.