You don't chose a side, you're a realist.

I could see it happening. Unlikely though unless FFXV and KH3 release before 2016 ends. I have no idea what impact those two games will have.

That's not at all what matters. If it continues on the path it's following by tracking behind the Wii U, it can never possibly outsell the Wii U. Thats how sales work.

In order to outsell the Wii U in Japan, it first has to outsell what the Wii U was doing then it was three months old, and it isn't. It's selling less. That means that if it follows this path, by the time it's as old as the Wii U is now, it will be selling less than 7.6K that week, which means that it will have sold less units in the same timespan in Japan than the Wii U, which won't matter to the Wii U because it will be that many month ahead in sales.

It's not bold, it's stupid. The PS4 can outsell the Wii U literally every week, and as long as it tracks behind what the Wii U was doing when it was the PS4's age, it is literally impossible for it to overtake the Wii U in sales.

KH3 definitely won't and I doubt we'll see FFXV before late 2015.

That's exactly why I'm not sure. Square takes a long time to release their games and the longer it takes to release those two games, the more unlikely it becomes the PS4 will ever outsell the Wii U in Japan. Although, Japan is essentially a non-factor when it comes to home consoles.

Even if they did, I don't think it would help. The last big KH and FF games both barely sold 1m in Japan, and the PS4 is tracking way worse than the PS3 was in Japan, so those games will surely sell less there. Super Mario Galaxy sold about the same there, and SM3DW has sold 500K there so far. That's the kind of boost those games will give the PS4, most likely less.

That's not how I remember my math.

If the PS4 now sells 3k more than WiiU every week the gap will be closed in a mere 400 weeks.

Also: Gap before release of PS4 1,6million. Gap now 1,2 million. Looks to me like it's shrinking. And as long as PS4 sells more than Wii U it will continue to shrink until it caught it.

The only possibility of the PS4 not catching the WiiU will be if it suddenly sells less or the same on a weekly basis.

So I don't really get what your're saying. Maybe you want to elaborate.

These "bold prediction" threads are dumb.

Well, with MK8 on the horizon, and smash bros later, WiiU will sell better in those time frames for sure.