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Forums - Sales - Prediction: XB1 Kinect will outsell WiiU Gamepad

 

Which do you think will sell more?

XB1 Kinect 24 22.02%
 
WiiU Gamepad 85 77.98%
 
Total:109
Cleary397 on 19 May 2014
Seece said:
Cleary397 said:
Seece said:

Selling point for Kinect is equally (or arguably more) entertainment and control than games, that said MS have Kinect games to announce at E3, so no, they're not dropping support.

ehhh... but are people really going to be willing to pay an extra $100 just to wave their arms around?

Kinect 1.0 had an attachment rate of about 1/3rd, which is pretty low for the so called revolutionary new interaction system which it was marketed as.

If Kinect 2.0 had not been mandatory, it probably would have sold at around the same rate, maybe a little less. Which would put its sales at around 1.5 million. Not great if you ask me.

 

EDIT: Spelling & Grammar.

We'll find out soon enough, the basis of this prediction is that Kinect doesn't really need to blow the doors off to achieve higher sales than WiiU (I don't think it'll even make 15m tbh) so it just needs to sell at a steady clip for the next 5/6 years.

Oh, so this is yet another WiiU doom and gloom thread but hidden behind an MS prediction?

I see.

 

But seriously, WiiU will reach around 25-30m and will have a good year this year after the release of MK8, Smash Bros, X and Zelda.



Current Game Machines: 3DS, Wii U, PC.

Currently Playing: X-Com(PC), Smash Bros(WiiU), Banner Saga(PC), Guild Wars 2(PC), Project X Zone(3DS), Luigis Mansion 2(3DS), DayZ(PC)

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Seece on 19 May 2014
Cleary397 said:
Seece said:

We'll find out soon enough, the basis of this prediction is that Kinect doesn't really need to blow the doors off to achieve higher sales than WiiU (I don't think it'll even make 15m tbh) so it just needs to sell at a steady clip for the next 5/6 years.

Oh, so this is yet another WiiU doom and gloom thread but hidden behind an MS prediction?

I see.

 

But seriously, WiiU will reach around 25-30m and will have a good year this year after the release of MK8, Smash Bros, X and Zelda.

No it isn't, it's a genuine prediction, also reported.

WiiU isn't getting anywhere near 25m.

1st year - 3m
2nd year - 3m
3rd year - 3.5m (forecast)

Rough numbers. Not even Nintendo expect an uptick, no reason you should either.



 

Pavolink on 19 May 2014

I'll be surprised if Kinect doesn't outsell the gamepad. Nintendo so far has done everything to have with Wii U their worst seller homeconsole.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


fleischr on 19 May 2014
Seece said:

So obviously Gamepad sales are easy to track, 1 for every WiiU sale (currently at 6.15m shipped)

There are about 5.1m Kinects out in the wild too, so the gap is about 1m.

Going forward we'll have to see the split of XB1 skus, it's more than likely the kinectless sku is going to be more popular, I'm thinking at least 60/40% in favour of Kinectless. But the sheer amount of XB1's that will sell over the course of its life will allow for Kinect XB1 to outsell WiiU which will sell far less.

I'm sure in a year or so MS will give us some updates.


I think the ratio should far favor Kinectless a lot more. Something more on the continuum 90-10. If Kinect 1.0 only made it to roughly 25% of the 360 userbase, what makes you think Kinect 2.0 will get even close to 40%?

There's really nothing that Kinect offers in terms of gameplay. That makes it horribly niche. More niche than the gamepad.

Based on a likely 50 million X1 lifetime sales and 10 percent attach rate for the peripheral going forward, not gonna happen unless WiiU never makes it to 10 million.

edits for additional points.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

PigPen on 19 May 2014

The Gamepad will beat Kinect even if Microsoft kept it bundled with the XOne.



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fleischr on 19 May 2014
kowenicki said:
Agreed. "Legacy"


Have fun with all those Kinect games!



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

pokoko on 19 May 2014

A 60/40 split between Kinectless and Kinected seems awfully generous. I can't imagine that happening unless Microsoft gets extremely aggressive with bundles to the point that Kinect is essentially free when compared to an unbundled Kinectless system--which is actually possible. We just have to see how Microsoft approaches Kinect from now on. If they virtually phase it out and no longer make high-profile games for it, it's done. If they still market it on even terms with the Kinectless, it might have a future.

I officially predict that it will be close while the Wii U is Nintendo's main home console but that Kinect will win because of a much longer life-span for the system it lives on.

Also, eh, we need better notation than Kinectless and Kinected. I vote "-k" and "+k", such as "XO-k" or "Xbone+k".



tbone51 on 19 May 2014
RolStoppable said:
Not sure about that, given that development of Kinect games will effectively stop, thus rendering the peripheral virtually pointless. By being removed so early from a forced bundle, Kinect's chances to to fulfill this prediction are quite slim. Microsoft will have to fight for relevance in the coming years and they aren't going to do that with their Kinect SKU.


Talk about timing, Look wat just popped up!

 http://www.ign.com/articles/2014/05/19/layoffs-hit-rare-following-kinect-changes-and-poor-sales?abthid=537a23384d314d7c3e00000c

Such a waste for Rare, hopefully they let them do whats best and make real games!

OT: I think its too early to tell, can go either way. Also stop telling people WiiU wont hit this mark(Ex:20mil-25mil), you dont kno the future, its been proven time and time again... thank you!



2Ultra on 19 May 2014

I think with Mario Kart and Smash Brothers coming, Wii U + Gamepad will out pace Xbox One + Kinect; however, I don't think WIi U + Gamepad will be able to keep up with X1 - Kinect in the long run. This console war is really going to heat up in a week or so on Mario Kart 8's release, but if it does not do well this WIi U is done in my opinion.



drake_tolu on 19 May 2014

I think Wii U will sold 40,000,000 VS 50,000,000 XBOX ONE...
IMHO, i think will win Wii U GamePad for 2:1...