Prediction: XB1 Kinect will outsell WiiU Gamepad

[fleischr]

Seece said:

So obviously Gamepad sales are easy to track, 1 for every WiiU sale (currently at 6.15m shipped)

There are about 5.1m Kinects out in the wild too, so the gap is about 1m.

Going forward we'll have to see the split of XB1 skus, it's more than likely the kinectless sku is going to be more popular, I'm thinking at least 60/40% in favour of Kinectless. But the sheer amount of XB1's that will sell over the course of its life will allow for Kinect XB1 to outsell WiiU which will sell far less.

I'm sure in a year or so MS will give us some updates.

I think the ratio should far favor Kinectless a lot more. Something more on the continuum 90-10. If Kinect 1.0 only made it to roughly 25% of the 360 userbase, what makes you think Kinect 2.0 will get even close to 40%?

There's really nothing that Kinect offers in terms of gameplay. That makes it horribly niche. More niche than the gamepad.

Based on a likely 50 million X1 lifetime sales and 10 percent attach rate for the peripheral going forward, not gonna happen unless WiiU never makes it to 10 million.

edits for additional points.