So obviously Gamepad sales are easy to track, 1 for every WiiU sale (currently at 6.15m shipped)

There are about 5.1m Kinects out in the wild too, so the gap is about 1m.

Going forward we'll have to see the split of XB1 skus, it's more than likely the kinectless sku is going to be more popular, I'm thinking at least 60/40% in favour of Kinectless. But the sheer amount of XB1's that will sell over the course of its life will allow for Kinect XB1 to outsell WiiU which will sell far less.

I'm sure in a year or so MS will give us some updates.

Talk about shooting fish in a barrel.

I'm going to guess 15m WiiU sales and Nintendo does not drop the Gamepad. So with that Microsoft would need to sell roughly 10m Kinects over the course of the XBO lifetime. A 1 in 5 attach rate with 50m+ sales should guarantee that. So yeah Kinect wins.

Yup, that sounds good.

Kinect for 360 came in pretty late and managed to sell 25m+ on a 80m install base. Obviously Kinect isn't anywhere near as popular as it was during the first 2 years on 360, but it has the added benefit of being available all this generation, and having 5m out there in the wild already.

Given that MS are essentially dropping support for Kinect, Gamepad will win hands down.

Selling point for Kinect is equally (or arguably more) entertainment and control than games, that said MS have Kinect games to announce at E3, so no, they're not dropping support.

kinect will win. not because of the xbone sells, but because it will be a good and dirtcheap webcam if M$ sells it for 79,99$(thats the maximum they can ask for)

ehhh... but are people really going to be willing to pay an extra $100 just to wave their arms around?

Kinect 1.0 had an attachment rate of about 1/3rd, which is pretty low for the so called revolutionary new interaction system which it was marketed as.

If Kinect 2.0 had not been mandatory, it probably would have sold at around the same rate, maybe a little less. Which would put its sales at around 1.5 million. Not great if you ask me.

EDIT: Spelling & Grammar.

It's very likely to happen... In fact, It's a very easy thing to predict if you ask me.

We'll find out soon enough, the basis of this prediction is that Kinect doesn't really need to blow the doors off to achieve higher sales than WiiU (I don't think it'll even make 15m tbh) so it just needs to sell at a steady clip for the next 5/6 years.