can't see it right now

they reckon digital going big time too,shame we never get all the digital sales

DO people pay idc for their reports? Or is it just a hobby kinda thing?

Cuz I think at least myself and a few others could team up and make a better comprehensive report than they.

So, this means xbone will sell a lot more...

Thanks IDC!

With their track record maybe Wii U will dominate, Xbox One will be last in USA, and disc sales will double.

I have to agree with this, lower 40's.

This is going to be a weird generation. Even if the West grows, it looks like all the consoles are going to fail in Japan, so already you're out 10m-15m units globally just from that market (PS4 might get to 7-8m, Wii U might get to 4m, X1 maybe 1m, against ~13m / ~11m / ~2m for Wii, PS3, X360). I'm not convinced the West will grow for home consoles.

PS4 and X1 could end up doing 70m or 80m (X360 + PS3 is nearly 70m right now, only up 10m from PS2 + Xbox) combined in the US and we'd still be way down on the Wii + PS3 + X360 (110m+) total simply by having Wii U die off before it got within spitting distance of 10m in the US. Wii was at 6.5m by late April 2007 after launching in Nov 06, PS4 is at 6.1m in late April 14 after launching in Nov 13, and it's died off much quicker than Wii did in Japan even though the launch was more recent in Japan than the Wii in late April - so all the trends seem to point to lower hw sales in aggregate for the consoles (certainly going to be true for the 3DS / Vita relative to DS / PSP, talking 235m to maybe 100m). X1 is well ahead of X360 / PS3 in its first six months, but it's selling worse than X360 was in Spring 06 at the moment, which doesn't bode well either.

I haven't really thought this far ahead, but it seems possible that the PS4 could reach around ~50 millions by the end of 2016, X1 around ~30 millions and Wii U around ~20 millions.

I made a quick and simple comparison between the PS3 and the PS4. The numbers below are roughly however, not exact and taken from VGC.

PS3 sold 1,2m during launch Nov-Dec 2006.
PS4 sold 4,4m during launch Nov-Dec 2013.
PS4 lead of 3,2m.

PS3 sold 1,9m between Jan-April 2007.
PS4 sold 2,9m between Jan-April 2014.
PS4 lead of 1m.

PS4 total lead of 4,2m to the PS3.

If this continues, and the PS4 would outsell the PS3 and keep around the same 71%-lead, it would mean that the PS4 would have sold 54,7 millions by the end of 2016.

The PS3 had sold 32 millions by the end of 2009.

I think my calculations are correct. :P

So my bottom-line is, if things keep going as good as it is for the PS4, and the above would apply, then yes it could make 50 millions by the end of 2016.

But the market can change a lot, economic crisis, loss of interest for the PS4, growth of Wii U or X1, and no one can really know what will happen so far into the future.

My own estimate would be somewhere between 40-50 millions. So for me 51 millions are a bit bold but perhaps possible.

Funny, all three were actually quite popular opinions on these forums.

It really is! Holy shit, I'm in the wrong field completely. Who knew I could just write up a bunch of bullshit and sell it for something.

Honestly, they sound like a bunch of fanboys to me. It feels like, if they had accepted ios and android as games platforms they would've been able to see that this prediction was clearly never going to happen.

Premium pricing and software? It will take complete revisions of the hardware, or entirely new hardware to rebound anything.