Pavolink

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Pavolink on 06 May 2014

43M seems more likely.

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ethomaz on 06 May 2014

ParryWinkle said:
51 million by 2016 seems way too high.
Maybe 20 million for the PS4 and 17-18 million for the Xbon- Xbox One.
I seriously doubt they'll release a Kinect-less Xbox due to the fact they invested way too much into it. Time will tell

PS4 will be close 20 million in 2014...

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ethomaz on 06 May 2014

bananaking21 said:
to tired to read the article. if they mean by the start of 2016, then lol, no way in fucking hell. if they mean at the end of 2016, then yeah, its possible.

The quote he says "by the end of 2016" refering to NA sales but I gues it is for WW too.

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wary-wallaroo on 06 May 2014

The X1 couldn't take NA back with TF and price cuts. Short of a $350 Halo 5 bundle this year, it's not taking back anything

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Dark_Feanor on 06 May 2014

kowenicki said:

I'd love to see their chart for this new prediction...

(IDC 2008)

(IDC 2006)

Never Forget.

That is what happens when you make a prediction based only on past situation... or worst, guessing things a company might do in the next 2 or 3 years.

How the hell they know MS will dish Kinect in 2015 and that mesure alone would help Xbox sales?

If they were to be take serious they should frase that way: "We belive that there is a reasonable chance for Kinect being removed and alas the price to get down. Our imagination is to limited to forsee any other mesure Microsoft might do to help Xbox sales".

But any way, Xone will get a discless SKU before Kinect is removed.

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bonzobanana on 06 May 2014

Price cuts accelerate sales and a huge percentage of consoles sold is around Christmas. Not forgetting that triple A titles will start coming more frequently as the userbase increases. I'm not saying it will reach those numbers but there are other factors that come into play later. Going by their track record they do seem to favour the playstation.

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freedquaker on 06 May 2014

daredevil.shark said:

PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016 - IDC

Tue 06 May 2014 6:08pm GMT / 2:08pm EDT / 11:08am PDT
Retail Hardware

Research firm also expects Kinect to be unbundled from Xbox One and physical game sales to decline 45% compared to last gen

International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally.

.....

Source: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-06-ps4-to-lead-all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc

It may sound crazy but there is a good chance that it will happen, and it beautifully sits inside my prediction interval if they mean "by the end of 2016".

My current estimates for the end of 2015

PS4 : 28.4 to 36.3 mil

XB1 : 11.2 to 17.4 mil

My current estimates for the end of 2016

PS4 : 47.4 to 58.9 mil

XB1 : 16.7 to 25.9 mil

Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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bananaking21 on 06 May 2014

kowenicki said:
In addition to the above, lets not forget their major error in proclaiming 77m shipped for PS3 in Jan 2013.

Everyone (well, anyone with common sense) knew they simply forgot that PS2 was included in those numbers. PS3 didn't ship 77m until September 2013.

IDC are terrible at predicting, and average at revealing past numbers in the public domain (they even get that wrong sometimes as we can see)

werent these the same guys who said ps3 would 120 million or so?