that is the question i would like to answer.

the topic of xbox being only availible in 13 countries vs. ps4's 50+ comes up a lot.   i've seen the subject brought up in a variety of ways from a moderate outlook to both extremes: "xbox would be outselling ps4 if availible WW" all the way to "lulz MS shouldn't even bother launching in japan cause it won't do anything".

simply put, i was curious what a realistic outlook of a globally availible xbox one (henceforth referred to as GX1) might look like.  with the availible data on vgchartz i think i have all i need to come up with a reasonable answer.   the next section i'll present my math for those that would like to critique it.   if that doesn't interest you skip on down to the results.

The Mathmatics

I came up with my results with a very simple assumption.

with the data availible we can calculate that the combined markets of US, UK, Germany ,and France amounted in 72.11% of xbox 360's global sales.  for the xbox one the "global" sales are deceptive because the system isn't availible world wide.   so my estimate is nothing more than assuming that, like the xbox 360, the xbox one will also sell 72.11% of it's units in the the US, UK, Germany, and France once availible globablly.

to test my hypothesis i did some regional analysis with the avaible data.

What i got out of these ratios is two things:

1. The regional ratios between the US and the UK and Germany isn't too bad.  this would support the idea that relatively speaking the xbox one will have a similar regional distribution to the xbox 360.

2. In all cases the US is doing better than other regions.  this would suggest to me that as i extrapolate the availible data to estimate the regions in which xbox one is currently not availible my estimates will likely be higher than reality.

So that's it.  there are no other assumptions in the data below.   I created the graph simply by extracting the data for each region from vgchartz database and applying the above stated ratio to estimate the performance of the GX1.

The Results

*ps4 is calculated by adding the US, European, and Japan launch weeks

source (1, 2)

Who here has said Xbox One would outsell the PS4 if it were launching in the same territories?

Oh man, I am even wondering if XBone will outsell the XB360! Honestly, if the XBone will be officially available in all the countries. It won't make a big difference after the first few weeks.

It wouldn't really benefit that much besides the launches themselves, but hey, any improvement is good, eh?

without actually searching it (which i can't because i'm off to houston in about 10 minutes) probably toastboy or whomever.  but whatever, i've seen it argued both ways.  there was, however, a particular thread on friday that made me interested in doing this analysis over the weekend.  i don't have it immediately availible but maybe someone else knows which one i'm talking about.

I dunno, but despite not officially released, the Xbox One is available on several european countries by import from other european countries.

So, i dont think it would make a big difference. We also know that Japan despises Xbox, so no hope there either. I guess they will get a little boost at launch as local retailer stock up, but i dont foresee big sales from those markets. If there were, Microsoft wouldnt have ignored them.

I would only had a few thousand a week. The system can already be bought in those territories anyway. People expecting a big boost when it launches in the smaller euro countries are just going to be disappointed. X1 will do worse in those sony dominated territories this gen.

Looks about right. The per-week totals wouldn't see much of a jump but it would help the cumulative totals.

For the launch week it would be +- 50k, afterwards less then 15%

I really don't think that it has to outsell the 360.
Everything above 50m would already be great.